Staggering -- US Crude Oil And Gasoline Stocks Soaring -- February 15, 2017

One has to remember that the graphs were similar a year ago, where the current crude oil stocks were well above the historical range. Now, a year later, the graphics are just as staggering.

And the price of crude oil? Hardly moves. 

From John Kemp, via Twitter:

February, 2017, NDIC Director's Cut Posted

Personal comments (not the Director's comments): The decrease in production in North Dakota in December, 2016, was probably due to weather conditions as much as anything else. That will continue through January, 2017, according to the NDIC. In December, 2016, fracking was not possible on 15 days due to high wind, and 10 days due to extreme cold (most likely many of those days "overlapped").

Although the number of DUCs decreased a bit month-over-month in December, 2016, the number of inactive wells increased by 54, now up to 1,573. 

A newly fracked well might produce 20,000 - 40,000 bbls for the first full month. Inactive wells, more than a year old, are probably producing in the range of 1,000 to 3,000 bbls/ month.

Back of the envelope:

• 20 new wells unfracked, due to weather, other reasons: 400,000 bbls/month (13,000 bopd)
• 54 additional wells go inactive: 108,000 bbls/month (3,500 bopd) 

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The Director's Cut

February, 2017 

Link here.

DUCs: 807, down 32 from previous report.

Results of the poll in which readers were asked whether they thought DUCs would increase/decrease in number month-over-month:

• more DUCs: 55%
• fewer DUCs: 45%

Total daily production decreased since previous report:

• December, 2016: 942,455 bopd
• November, 2016: 1,034,484 bopd
• Delta: 92,029 bopd
• Delta: - 8.8% 

Producing wells:

• December, 2016: 13,337 (preliminary, all-time high was the previous month, November, 2016, at 13,520)
• November, 2016: 13,520

Permitting: 

• December, 2016: 81 drilling
• November, 2016: 76 drilling

ND sweet crude price:

• Today: $42.50
• January, 2017: $40.75
• December, 2016: $39.93
• November, 2016: $34.58

Rig count:

• January, 2017: 38
• December, 2016: 40
• November, 2016: 37

The number of well completions decreased slightly from 84 (final) in November, 2016, to 81 (preliminary) in December, 2016.

Weather:

• Fifteen (15) days with winds too strong for completion work (greater than 35 mph)
• Nine (9) days with temperatures below -10 degrees F. 
• That was in December; more of the same is predicted for January, 2017. 

Capital movement to the Permian, along with low oil prices, lifting of sanctions on Iran, and a weak global economy depressed the rig count, from the Director's Cut.

Flaring: statewide - 14%; FBIR - 16%

Natural gas capture rate: statewide - 86%; FBIR - 84%

• current mandate: 85% - November 1, 2016 - October 31, 2018
• future mandate: 88% - November, 2018 - October 31, 2020
• beginning November 1, 2020: 91%

The Political Page, T+26 -- February 15, 2017

The market under two different administrations:

Under President Obama:

• the market would open moderately higher
• President Obama would hold a press conference or make a speech
• the market would tank

Under President Trump:

• the market opens slightly negative, flat, or slightly up
• President Trump holds a meeting, makes a short statement
• the market surges

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 Life Imitates Art

This puts everything into perspective:

• House of Cards
• Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Political assassinations.

Spies.

Pretty funny.

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Trump - Netanyahu Press Conference

Four questions:

Alternating between host / visitor. Host calls on first press representative and then the visitor calls for question, and it continues. Today's questions came from:

• Christian News Service (CNS) News: link here.
• Foreign press
• Townhall: link here.
• Foreign press

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Duped by Fake Tweet

Nancy Pelosi, Elijah Cummings, and ... drum roll ... The New York Times. Story here.

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Star Rising

Keith Ellison remains the top candidate, Chairman, DNC. Even David Duke supports this candidate.

NDIC Hearing Dockets, Supplement Case, March, 2017

NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here. 

Only four cases are on the docket right now for March:

Thursday, March 2, 2017

25640, Luff Exploration, unitize Haley-Red River Unit, Bowman County
25641, Luff Exploration, unitize Haley-Red River Unit, Bowman County
25642, Luff Exploration, unitize Corey Butte-Red River Unit, Bowman County
25643, Luff Exploration, unitize Corey Butte-Red River Unit, Bowman County

Corey Butte:

• extreme far southwest corner of North Dakota
• 4.5 sections
• 5 active wells
• horizontal Red River wells

Haley:

• extreme far southwest corner of North Dakota, located a couple of miles to the northeast of Corey Butte
• ~ 1 section
• 2 active wells; 1 additional well that just "went" IA (inactive)
• horizontal Red River wells

Market And Energy News, T+26 -- February 15, 2017

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Mid-Afternoon

New records: Dow Jones up 105 points, around 20,605. 

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Mid-Morning 

New records: Dow Jones up over 80 100 points. Hits a new all-time record. Hits 20,600. This is truly insane. To infinity and beyond.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Crude oil build: 9.53 million bbls; 3x forecast. Link here. This comes on top of a 14-million-bbl build last week which was about 7x forecast. And yet the price of crude oil not dropping all that much. See graphs here.

Refinery utilization: 85%

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Opening

DAPL: contamination of Cannonball River likely -- due to activists and Native Americans protesting pipeline. 

GDP Now: new estimate is expected to be released later today.

ObamaCare: Humana to exit ObamaCare, 2018. ObamaCare is tracked here. IRS won't reject tax filings that don't include healthcare insurance information. Shares of Aetna and Humans continue to surge.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Apple: Warren Buffett quadrupled his stake in Apple. Story here.

Walmart: Warren Buffett sold off almost all of his shares in Walmart, close to $1 billion. The story here: the end of retail as we know it. Doomsday: the demise of the big box store.

GM: looking to exit Europe; talk: sell Opel to Peugeot; would "catapult" Peugeot into being #2 auto group in Europe. Ah, yes, Peugeot. The new "poster child" for the EU?

Attention to detail/sticking to one's knitting works: Devon Energy beats profit estimates as cost cuts pay off. Data points:

• bigger-than-expected quarterly profit
• total operating expenses fell 67%
• total cost savings exceeded $1 billion in 2016
• has sold all its non-core assets; completing a $3.2 divestiture program in October
• 2017 production expected to be about 550,000 boepd
• EPS of 63 cents/share; compared with a loss of $11.12/share a year earlier
• adjusted, earned 25 cents/share vs forecast of 21 cents/share

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The Market

Futures:

• Dow Jones: +26 points
• WTI: below $53, again 

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The Literature Page

Modern Painters, John Ruskin, edited and abridged by David Barrie, c. 1987.

From the introduction:

The greatest influence apparent in Volume I -- apart from the works of J. M. W. Turner himself -- is Wordsworth. 

In accordance with his espousal of the ancient theory that saw painting and poetry as "sister arts," Ruskin draws on Wordsworth for examples of good landscape "painting"; but his debt to Wordsworth extends also to the theoretical level. 

The basic argument of Volume I is closely analogous to that proposed by Wordsworth in the Preface to the Lyricl Ballds, the first publication of which in 1800 marked the birth of English Romantic poetics. 

Just as Wordsworth rejected the artifice of classical poetic diction in favour of "the real language of men," so Ruskin, more than forty years later, attacked the attempts by classical landscape painters to "improve" or idealize nature, contrasting their distortions of reality with the "truthfulness" of Turner.