The Market And Energy Page, T+25 -- February 14, 2017

Late-Day Trading and Close

Market: will come close to another triple-digit gain in the Dow Jones. Closed up 92 points, to 20,504.

Apple shorts getting squeezed: story here. 

NYSE: 

• new highs, 197: Fiat Chrysler, Raytheon,
• new lows, 9.

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Mid-Day Trading

Market up an astounding 50 points (Dow Jones) after two consecutive record-setting days.

Apple continues to melt up.

General Motors is considering exiting Europe; could sell Opel division.

Noble to double CAPEX in 2017. 

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Market Opening

EVs: China's electric vehicle market hits the skids, in The Wall Street Journal.

Market opening: flat, but mid-morning, the Dow is down about 30 points.

WTI: up slightly; at $53.43.

US gasoline exports, from Downstream Today:

• US gasoline exports hit a record in November, 2016 (most recent month data is available)
• US gasoline to: Latin America, West Africa, and Asia
• unusual amounts of gasoline has been moved from PADD1 -- the east coast region; NY harbor
• but unusual cargo movements out of the US East Coast has not been limited to gasoline
• distillates to Europe
• distillate exports from the region are not unprecedented, but Europe's refineries rely on drivers in West Africa and the US East Coast to consume their gasoline
• overall, the US energy revolution appears to be a real threat to Europe. When the EU can least afford it, it seems 

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Future Astronaut?

What's WIth All The DUCs? T+25 -- February 14, 2017

Active rigs:

	2/14/2017	02/14/2016	02/14/2015	02/14/2014	02/14/2013
Active Rigs	36	41	137	185	182

RBN Energy: What's with all the DUCs?

The latest Drilling Productivity Report from the EIA, released yesterday (February 13, 2017), shows that while the combined rig count in the seven major U.S. shale plays rose about 25% in the fourth quarter of 2016 versus the previous quarter, and the number of wells drilled was up 29%, well completions were up a paltry 1%, leading to an increase in the inventory of drilled-but-uncompleted wells (DUCs).

Completions accelerated a bit in January 2017, but DUCs still continued to rise. That certainly seems counterintuitive.  With crude oil prices stable in the low $50’s over the past few months you might think that producers would be pulling DUCs out of inventory, and in fact there have been statements to that effect in several producer investor calls. This is not just an exercise in energy fundamentals numerology. If the DUC inventory is increasing, then production will not be ramping up as fast as the growing rig count would imply.

But what if, as some early signs indicate, the historical relationships are out of whack and the DUC inventory isn’t growing but rather declining? In that case, forecast models could be understating the outlook for production growth, and the market could be in for a more rapid and steeper rebound in oil and gas production than many expect. In today’s blog, we delve into the DUC inventory data and its potential upside risk to production forecasts.

Scott Adams: freedom of speech is now largely an illusion.

Operations: Oasis reports a nice Rolfson N well:

• 31606, 1,722, Oasis, Rolfson N 5198 11-17 2B, Siverston, 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t8/16; cum 145K 12/17;
• the Rolfson N wells are tracked here

Global Warming Scam: A Big Story For 2017 - 2018 -- February 13, 2017

Updates

February 20, 2017: Europe switches to coal-powered cars in shadow of "dieselgate." More than 70% of BMW and Daimler cars made for the Europed market last year (2016) were diesel. The smog has gotten so bad, the "diesel" policy is being rescinded and folks are being pushed to EVs (coal-powered vehicles).
 

Original Post

 

The fact that this story is in The Boston Globe suggests that this is going to be a "big story" for 2017 - 2018: the global warming scam.

They observe changes in the atmosphere like astronomers study the stars, analyzing everything from air pressure to water vapor and poring over computer models to arrive at a forecast.

But for all their scrutiny of weather data, many meteorologists part ways with their colleagues — climate scientists who study longer atmospheric trends — in one crucial respect.

Many remain skeptical about whether human activity is causing climate change, as underscored by the recent departure of Mish Michaels from WGBH News.

Michaels, a former meteorologist at WBZ-TV, lost her job as a science reporter at WGBH’s show “Greater Boston” this week after colleagues raised concerns about her views on vaccines and climate change. She had previously questioned the safety of vaccines and the evidence that human activity was causing global warming, both widely held views in the scientific community.  

A lot of misinformation  and repeating of memes and tropes in the article, but this is likely just the first of many such stories.

DAPL Protest Costs To The State, Local Governments: $33 Million To Date -- February 13, 2017

From a reader, the cost to the state and local governments due to DAPL protests. Note that 92% of the arrestees were from out-of-state:

One Industry Where The US Is Catching China -- Fertilizers -- WSJ -- February 13, 2017

I was unaware that we were playing catch-up. From The Wall Street Journal:

• US fertilizer production capacity increased by 24% last year
• US output of urea surged by 10% boosted by a number of new and expanded plants in states from Iowa to Louisiana
• meanwhile, China, the world's #1 fertilizer producer, saw its production slump by 7% and exports drop by more than a third
• US shale revolution: accounts for the US surge in fertilizer production
• yes: due to fracking and horizontal drilling for natural gas

Folks may remember that Hillary pledged to ban fracking if elected president. 

Much, much more at the link.