January 21, 2017 -- What A Great Country!

Current location, inside a McDonald's:

At 4:00 p.m. Central Time, I couldn't take it any more. My wife was watching the CNN coverage of the women's marches in Washington, DC, and around the world. I don't know if there was a march in Williston. Whatever.

I couldn't take it any more.

I thought bicycling on the interstate was better than having to listen to CNN. And then I got a two-fer. I did not check the weather. About 40 minutes from home, a huge lightning - thunderstorm brok out. I had the very good fortune of increasing the odds that either a car would hit me or lightning would strike me -- anything to put me out of my psychological misery.

As luck would have it, my favorite -- and I'm being serious here -- my favorite McDonald's appeared on the horizon. I ducked in just before the worst of the storm hit

I see on the weather map I have about 40 minutes before another cell hits, so this will be quick.

But what a great country! This McDonald's is one of my favorites. It is my favorite one in the lcoal area. Since no one was here -- they were all home watching the women's march, I suppose -- except the manager and the employees, I had some time to talk with the 48-year-old African-American manager who runs this McDonald's.

Apparently this "corporate" McDonald's was hemorrhaging money (mostly stolen by employees up front) and she was brought in to "fix things." Sort of like the Donald Trump of the McDonald's franchise.

At the time, she was managing another McDonald's, one of 25 McDonald's owned by the corporation, in the local area. She said the one she left was not making any money due to location and McDonald's closed it, sending her here. She has been with McDonald's for 29 years. You can do the math.

I asked her how this McDonald's is doing now. She said it was now #1 of the 25 corporate McDonald's restaurants in this area.

Much more to write, but the weather is clear for a bit, so I'm going to try getting home in the pitch black night before it starts raining again.

Hopefully my lights will work after the downpour.

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Sporty Ride Home

Due to nighttime construction on the four-lane divided highway, I had to take an alternate route. That highway had a narrow shoulder and at one point, no shoulder. It is well after dark by this time, and there has just been a downpour.

Because there is no shoulder I off-road which is fine until at one point I needed to cross a small stream. I was actually able to ride the bike through the stream; there must have been a fairly compact gravel base, otherwise I would have been ankle deep (or worse) in mud. But I got through and then popped back up on the shoulder of the highway.

I passed on Texas highway patrolman who waited for me to pass, and that was it.

Home safely. The bike is too muddy and wet to bring inside tonight. 

Week 3: January 15, 2017 -- January 21, 2017 -- President Trump's First Day In Office

Some quick bullets about the oil sector in general:

• this past year (2016), the sector saw the lowest replenishment of reserves in decades; global oil discoveries drop to a 70-year low
• in some cases, companies are seeing their reserves declining at 10% per year
• the decline in reserves may explain ExxonMobil doubling down the Permian
• only three oil plays in the US of any note right now: the Permian, Eagle Ford, and the Bakken; and, the Eagle Ford is the weakest of the three; XOM, Noble, WPX all increase footprint in the Permian
• Saudi Arabia in disarray: one day after saying Saudi saw no likelihood that cuts would need to be extended after June, 2017, the energy minister, the very next day, said he could foresee more cuts in 2017
• IMF slashes forecast for Saudi's GDP: 0.4% 
• staggering decline in Saudi's foreign exchange reserves continues
• general consensus is that Prince Salman's "Vision 2030" will fail
• India's oil demand hit a record high
• China, meanwhile, forecasts record oil demand
• China has hit peak oil

Operations
In the Williston Basin, Enduro Operating has three permits for re-entry 

Bakken Economy
$20 million expansion project back on front burner for Williston, "Boomtown, USA" 

The Helena Ruth Grant Wells

Reunion Bay, SWNW 33-150-93.

• 30653, 1,755, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HT, Three Forks, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs; t12/16; cum 285K5/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 7/20; back on line; cum 326K 4/22;
  
• 29081, 1,830, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HW, Three Forks, 38 stages, 5.9 million lbs; t12/16; cum 321K 6/20; off line 7/20; back on line; cum 372K 4/22;
  
• 29082, 2,397, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HA, middle Bakken, 40 stages, 6.1 million lbs; t11/16; cum 364K 7/20; cum 416K 4/22;
  
• 29083, 1,709, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HX, Three Forks, t10/16; 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs; t10/16; cum 348K 7/20; cum 413K 4/22;
  
• 29084, 1,900, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HY, Three Forks, t10/16; 40 stages, 6 million lbs; t10/16; cum 296K 7/20; cum 350K 4/22;
• 29085, 2,557, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HC, middle Bakken, t11/16; 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs; t11/16; cum 402K 6/20; off line 7/20; back on line; cum 458K 4/22;
  
• 19516, AB/TA/798, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34H, middle Bakken, re-frack 1/16; 934,620 lbs; the re-frac went badly; returned to production simply to show they had production for January; but there are no current plans to go back and fish the coiled tubing that was lost in the wellbore on the re-frack. It looks to me as if once the other wells start producing, they may abandon this well, although it has produced the entire past year, albeit dropping off significantly in the past few months. Original frack 3/11; 25 stages; 2.7 million lbs; cum 375K 10/18; inactive as of 3/17; actually had a day of production in 10/18; back on active status; four days active 5/19 but no production; remains inactive 7/20; now AB;
  

See the incredible Caribou wells in the same area.

One New Permit; WPX Reports A Huge Completed DUC -- January 20, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/20/2017	01/20/2016	01/20/2015	01/20/2014	01/20/2013
Active Rigs	38	48	161	187	187

One permit approved:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Field: Spotted Horn (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Six permits renewed:

• CLR (4): two Florida permits and two Alpha permits, all in McKenzie County
• Petro-Hunt (2): two Tande permits in Burke County

One producing well reported as completed (DUC):

• 29082, 2,397, WPX, Helena Ruth Grant 33-34HA, Reunion Bay, t11/16; cum 17K after 13 days; the Helena Ruth Grand wells are tracked here.

One permit canceled:

• 27479, PNC, WPX, Kale Bad Brave 19-18HA, Dunn County

January 20, 2017 -- Inauguration

The inauguration! This is bigger than the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade! 

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Say Goodnight, Gracie

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Hey, Hey

Na, Na, Hey, Hey, Kiss Him Goodbye, Steam

 

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Tuned To CNBC

The Visual: the viewing stand is full of business leaders who have never been at an inauguration before, including 80-year-old Carl Icahn. Had this been a Hillary inauguration, this would have been all Hollywood -- it would have been like the Oscars -- with Meryl Streep leading the entourage. You just know that Barbara Streisand would have sung the national anthem. 

Representative John Lewis: who said he would not show up, looks like he was attending. CNBC is trying to sort this out. I saw him enter the viewing stands also; I thought it was him; he looked incredibly glum. But if he shows up, huge disappointment to those who said they would not attend after he said it was the first inauguration he would miss (a lie).

Inauguration: props to Hillary and Bill Clinton; they showed up for the inauguration

• Black caucus did not
• 60+ Democratic senators, Congressmen/women did not 
• Woody Allen: "90% of life is showing up"

Inauguration: stock market up about 100 points. Talking head on CNBC:

• within two months ObamaCare will be done (a trillion dollar in cuts)
• in six months corporate tax cuts and immediate depreciation
• comment: once "benefits" of making America great again start to be seen, this will gain a momentum; even CNBC talking about huge positive expectations

General tone:

• festive
• President Obama's legacy is already history
• very, very positive about a Trump presidency
• budget reconciliation: can't be filibustered 

WTI: up almost 3%

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Reflecting On "What Could Have Been"

Glum and Glummer

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No, Donald Trump won't be president -- George Clooney

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Clinton Foundation Dead

From Investor's Business Daily:

In a tax filing, the Clinton Global Initiative said it's firing 22 staffers and closing its offices, a result of the gusher of foreign money that kept the foundation afloat suddenly drying up after Hillary Clinton failed to win the presidency.

It proves what we've said all along: The Clinton Foundation was little more than an influence-peddling scheme to enrich the Clintons, and had little if anything to do with "charity," either overseas or in the U.S. That sound you heard starting in November was checkbooks being snapped shut in offices around the world by people who had hoped their donations would buy access to the next president of the United States. And why not?

There was a strong precedent for it in Hillary Clinton's tenure as secretary of state. While serving as the nation's top diplomat, the Clinton Foundation took money from at least seven foreign governments — a clear breach of Clinton's pledge on taking office that there would be total separation between her duties and the foundation. Is there a smoking gun?

Well, of the 154 private interests who either officially met or had scheduled phone talks with Hillary Clinton while she was secretary of state, at least 85 were donors to the Clinton Foundation or one of its programs.

Climate change? All references to climate change removed from White House website.

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Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

	1/20/2017	01/20/2016	01/20/2015	01/20/2014	01/20/2013
Active Rigs	37	48	161	187	187

RBN Energy: drilling deeper into E & P companies' lease operating expenses.

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Big Oil

Big Oil back on the acquisition trail as outlook brightens -- Reuters via Rigzone.

• since late November: 11 deals worth more than $500 each; combined value of $31 billion
• crude oil reserves declining at a rate of 10% a year in some cases
• valuation of large firms: based on reserves to great extent -- could be main reason ExxonMobil doubled down on the Permian
• many small operators burdened with debt looking to sell

Major deals listed at the link; many have been previously posted at the blog.

 

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Rigs At Highest Level Since November, 2015

From Investor's Business Daily:

• led by the Permian
• up 29 to 551, across the US
• Permian: up 13 to 281
• Eagle Ford: up 2 to 43
• Bakken: up 3 to 35
• Niobrara: flat at 23

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Statoil Tests Methane Emissions Technology In Eagle Ford

From Rigzone:

• an Internet of Things (IoT) device that continuously monitors methane emissions
• the device leverages cloud-based analystics
• designed and deployed through the Methane Detectors Challenge -- a partnership between the Environmental Defense Fund, Statoil, and other oil and gas companies 

Meanwhile an IoT methane-monitoring backpack device attached to cattle is being tested in California (no link)

• the bullshit methane-monitoring device 
• BSMMD
• designed and deployed by a partnership between Algore, Jerry Brown, and Mickey Mouse
• if the device works, there are rumors it will be tested in Washington, DC

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El Chapo Extradited

The Trump effect.

• all agreed the extradition would eventually occur
• all agreed that the process could take another two years
• all agree that Mexico did not want President Trump to get the "credit" for the extradition

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The Market

Dow 30:

• Just before Donald Trump spoke: + 97 points
• Immediately after Donald Trump spoke: + 78 points
• At the close: + 94 points

President Trump wants 4% growth. President Obama never saw 3% growth in GDP in any of his eight years.

Individual companies:

• CMCSA: hit an all-time high (a big whoop)
• UNP: up a nice 2.22% (another big whoop)
• SRE: up slightly
• XLNX: up slightly

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When Folks Laughed At Trump

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