Monday, April 25, 2016

Another Random Example Of Managing Production -- April 25, 2016

In addition to DUCs, and wells taken off-line (inactive wells), some operators are aggressively managing their production from individual wells. Here is another example (note the number of days this well was on-line in December, 2015; and, in February, 2016:

NDIC File No: 29327     API No: 33-053-06236-00-00     CTB No: 229326
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/24/2015     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NWNW 15-150-95     Footages: 426 FNL 1125 FWL     Latitude: 47.817333     Longitude: -102.829035
Current Operator: QEP ENERGY COMPANY
Current Well Name: JONES 6-15-22TH
Elevation(s): 2287 KB   2257 GR   2264 GL     Total Depth: 20748     Field: GRAIL
Spud Date(s):  11/13/2014
Casing String(s): 9.625" 1777'   7" 11005'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11005-20748     Comp: 9/24/2015     Status: F     Date: 9/24/2015     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 121711     Cum MCF Gas: 172065     Cum Water: 33356
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/24/2015     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 2261     IP MCF: 2627     IP Water: 883
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2016756285679247369706676288
BAKKEN1-201631327733305165104319442764430
BAKKEN12-2015773467052162597489137611
BAKKEN11-2015303450534488806946506432303276
BAKKEN10-20153131008310179448457122642319169
BAKKEN9-2015291045110233523119935115468309

New Post-Boom Low, Active Rigs = 26; Last Of 10-Part Series On CBR -- RBN Energy -- April 25, 2016; Saudi Unveils Sustainable Economic Plan

US new home sales fall in March; third consecutive month for falling new home sales. AP is reporting, with a phrase one does not like to see in these reports: decline as sales plunged sharply in the Western states. I assume the $2000/month ObamaCare premium for a family is cutting into one's ability to take on a new mortgage. Maybe it's only $1000/month. I don't know. Whatever. The article didn't mention the 800-lb gorilla; it did mention that mortgage rates are at/near historic lows. It did not mention that the Fed may be "raising rates" later this year.

Active rigs:


4/25/201604/25/201504/25/201404/25/201304/25/2012
Active Rigs2684182186209

RBN Energy: victory of American ingenuity over crude pipeline delays and congestion.
The story of crude-by-rail (CBR) in North America is that of a victory of good old U.S. ingenuity over the lack of pipeline capacity that stranded booming shale oil production in 2012. The lower cost to market of “on-ramp” rail terminals allowed surging crude production a route to (mainly) coastal refineries - igniting a building boom over 4 short years that has left 82 load terminals and 44 destination terminals operating today  - many of them now underutilized.
Along the way monthly lease rates for rail tank cars that reached $2,750/month at the height of the boom are down to $325/month after the bust – with many lease holders paying daily rent to park their empty cars. Today we conclude our series reviewing the state of CBR today.
Cheap oil shaved $390 billion from Mideast economies in 2015; could be another $150 billion this year. The WSJ is reporting:
The International Monetary Fund estimates the Middle East’s oil-dependent economies have missed out on $390 billion in oil revenues last year alone and face up to $150 billion in income losses this year as a result of cheap oil prices.
The drop in revenues stemming from the export of oil is the direct result of the plunge in crude prices from around $115 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $30 at the start of the year and now above $40.
The loss in potential revenues has put an enormous strain on the economies of major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait who have posted massive budget deficits in the past year. The IMF had previously calculated that the declining energy prices would erase around $360 billion in oil receipts.
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 Saudi Arabia officially unveils long-term economic plan. CNBC is reporting:
Titled "Saudi Vision 2030," the plan includes regulatory, budget and policy changes that will be implemented over the next 15 years in the hope of making the kingdom less reliant on crude. It aims to build a "prosperous and sustainable economic future" for the kingdom, according to the press release.
The plan will no doubt include:
  • using excess oil tankers to carry solar energy trapped in glass bottles
  • expanded tourism; casinos in Mecca in the off-months 
  • selling sand castles for the rich, famous, and gullible
  • cross-desert NASCAR races limited to VWs bought back by the company 
  • expanded PGA golf tournaments with a focus on sand traps
  • Medina-derby camel races
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Gasoline demand to hit record. WSJ is reporting:
Money managers shrugged off the failure of the world’s biggest oil producers to agree on an output freeze as U.S. gasoline demand surged.
West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 8.3 percent the week after talks in Doha collapsed. Investors focused on falling U.S. output and higher fuel use as the peak summer driving season approaches. American gasoline consumption rose to 9.25 million barrels a day in March, an all-time high for the month, the American Petroleum Institute said April 21. 
“It doesn’t make sense to go short ahead of summer because of strong gasoline demand,” said Scott Roberts, co-head of high yield investments and manager of $2.7 billion at Invesco Advisers Inc. in Atlanta. “Refiners are coming back and with that crude demand.” from the highest close since November 10, 2015, last week.
Update on Saudi Aramco IPO. WSJ is reporting:
The Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the largest energy firm in the world, is likely worth between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion and will be turned into a holding company with publicly listed subsidiaries.
Less than 5% of the company, known as Saudi Aramco, will be publicly offered in a joint listing in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, possibly the U.S., said Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the second-in-line to the throne, in an interview with the Dubai-based television network Al Arabiya.
The prince outlined plans for Aramco as part of a plan to transform the kingdom’s oil-dependent economy into one more focused on private enterprise.
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Less Wind?

This was previously reported, but this story at utilitydive provides background that may not have been posted earlier: bottom line -- despite a 13% increase in wind capacity in 2015 (more wind turbines), the growth in wind energy generation showed lowest increase since record-keeping began, 1999, sixteen years ago.

One wonders if they're looking for wind in all the wrong places now that the best wind sites (Iowa, Texas, California) have been taken.

Looking For Love In All The Wrong Places, Johnny Lee

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The Apple Page

Apple's watch outpaced the iPhone in first year. WSJ is reporting. The headline has been changed. The WSJ must have gotten a phone call from Tim Cook.
Apple Inc. sold twice as many Watches as iPhones in each device’s debut year. Yet the smartwatch is dogged by a perception that seems premature given the history of Apple’s most popular devices: disappointment.
As the Watch marks its first anniversary on Sunday—two days before Apple’s quarterly earnings announcement—the product’s fate is critical to the company. It is Apple’s first all-new product since the iPad and a test of its ability to innovate under Chief Executive Tim Cook, when sales of iPhones are slowing.
​ So far, the numbers appear solid. Apple doesn’t disclose sales, but analysts estimate about 12 million Watches were sold in year one. At an estimated average price of $500, that is a $6 billion business—three times the annual revenue of activity tracker Fitbit Inc.

Sunday, April 24, 2016

BR Reports A Huge Well; Four (4) More DUCs; April 24, 2016

Monday, April 25, 2016
  • 30769, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33G, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 31097, 127, Crescent Point Energy, CPEC Elgaard 2-31-32-164N-100W, Colgan, t1/16; cum 11K 2/16;
  • 31557, 1,275, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-7, Hawkeye, t3/16; cum --
Sunday, April 24, 2016
  • 21111, SI/NC, Enerplus, Anna G. Baker 6B-7-2H TF, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
  • 30768, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Grinnell 34X-33D, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 31558, 1,432, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-8, Hawkeye, t3/16; cum --
  • 31679, SI/NC, SM Energy, Mo Farms 15-21HS, Musta, no production data,
Saturday, April 23, 2016
  • 31314, SI/NC, Sinclair, Porcupine 2-19H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 31559, 572, Hess, HA-Chapin-152-95-2932H-9, Hawkeye, t3/16; cum --
  • 31934, 2,245, BR, CCU Atlantic Express 41-30MBH, Corral Creek, t2/16; cum 7K after 13 days;

Idle Rambling: Natural Gas Production/Flaring/Processing -- Iran Vs North Dakota -- April 24, 2016

Disclaimer: there may be some major factual errors on this page. I do not understand natural gas. If this is important to you, the links are there. 

See this post for background.

I've never "understood" natural gas but after almost ten years of blogging, I feel a bit more comfortable with natural gas.

But when I read that North Dakota set an all-time record for natural gas production (for the state), I did not have feel for 48 million m³/d (1.69 Bcf/d).

This puts it in perspective, from an article in January, 2016, just a couple of months ago, talking to Iran's natural gas production:
The country's total gas production in the year to March 2015 stood at about 553mn m3/d, of which 93mn m3/d were re-injected to oil fields and 37mn m3/d delivered to petrochemical plants.
So, in bullets, for Iran's natural gas production, in round numbers:
  • total natural gas production: 550 million m3/d
  • natural gas re-injected into its oil fields: 100 million m3/d
  • 40 million m3/d delivered to petrochemical plants
Iran delivered about 40 million m3/d of natural gas to its petrochemical plants.

North Dakota is producing about 50 million m3/d of natural gas. 50 x 0.89 = 44 million m3/d being processed.

At least that's what I'm reading. Again, I may be missing something.

MDU has sold off its Fidelity division.

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For The Archives
Saudi To Expand Existing Oil Field

I'm not sure what to make of this. For now, simply for the archives. From Bloomberg:
Saudi Arabian Oil Co. will complete the expansion of its Shaybah oilfield by the end of May, allowing the biggest crude exporter in the world to maintain the level of its total production capacity.
Shaybah’s production capacity will rise to 1 million barrels a day from 750,000 barrels. The field, in the Empty Quarter desert near the border with the United Arab Emirates, produces extra light grade crude with API gravity of 42 degrees, they said.
Shaybah’s expansion will help Saudi Aramco, as the state producer is known, to keep the company’s output capacity at 12 million barrels a day.
This would suggest that existing fields are being depleted.

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US Troops To Syria To Take On The JV Team

Understanding how much President Obama did NOT want to send more troops to Syria, especially as his time in office is coming to an end, this story speaks volumes how badly things must be going. It is being reported everywhere (this link to FoxNews) that the president will send 250 more troops to Syria. This increases the number to 300. Many, many story lines here, not least of what the meager amount of troops suggests.

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The Literature Page

Wow, talk about a blind spot. In today's Dallas Morning News, there is a huge front page story in the "Points" section featuring Andrew Bacevich who will be at the Dallas Book Festival this next Saturday. Bacevich is the author of the new book America's Way for the Greater Middle East.

The "headline" to the story: "Why American fails to win wars." The answer: "Our military system is out of sync with military ambitions. Bacevich lays blame on the creation of an all-volunteer force."

Wow, talk about a blind spot.

If I remember correctly, the US "won" WWII, stalemated in Korea, and lost "big" in Vietnam. All before the all-volunteer force.

We toppled Saddam with shock and awe with an all-volunteer force.

And, no, I won't be buying (or reading) his new book.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

Yesterday afternoon/evening we had Sophia, granddaughter #3, age two this summer, over to the new apartment. As usual, she was good as gold, as they say.

We were reading in one of the bedrooms and had not heard a peep out of Sophia for quite some time (three minutes), so I thought it best to go check on her. The last time I saw her she was sweeping the kitchen using the broom and dustpan she had found by the refrigerator.

Just as I walked into the newly-painted dining room, I noted that Sophia had found the Christmas eggnog mugs where we keep about ten pencils, lots of pens, a pair of scissors, and other paraphernalia. From all those items, and the mug was crammed full of stuff, she managed to find the one black Sharpie. She had just gotten the top off and was about to write on a stack of Post-It notes.

It boggles the mind how a two-year-old can immediately spot a Sharpie among 53 other items which pretty much all look alike, crammed together in a small mug in a room full of other interesting items to explore.

But there you have it.

North Dakota Natural Gas Hits Milestone: More Gas Than Ever Despite Huge Decline In Active Wells; Mike Filloon's Bakken Update -- Focus On Producers In The Bakken -- April 24, 2016

North Dakota natural gas industry hits milestone: 
Natural gas production from North Dakota reached an all-time high in February as flaring declined and gas output from oil wells in of the Bakken and Three Forks formations increased.

Gas production in February rose to 1.69 Bcf/d (48mn m³/d), up by 3 percent from January and about 1 percent higher than the previous record set in November 2015.

The amount of flared gas in February dropped to 11 percent, down from 13 percent a month earlier as processing capacity rose.

The Tioga gas plant increased its operational capacity to 84 percent, up by 5 percentage point from January.

Nearly all of the gas produced in North Dakota comes from the state's oil wells. But gas production grew despite a decline in producing wells.
The well count dropped at the end of February to 13,012, down by 129 from a month earlier.
See this post, also, natural gas, North Dakota vs Iran.

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Mike Filloon's Bakken Update

From Filloon:
  • US oil production continues to decrease approximately 20K bbl/d each week although Gulf production continues to increase
  • Producers had planned to increase production significantly from 2014 to 2015 but low oil prices pulled barrels from the market
  • 2016 oil production from shale could see a much larger decrease year over year as increases may be seen from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, etc
  • U.S. small cap unconventional oil producers could shoulder the majority of the 2016 production cut if 2015 numbers were a preview
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Mezcal

I think I mentioned a few days ago that I have moved on to mezcal. It took several years for me to become comfortable with Scotch, and now that fad is over. Last year/this year I was determined to become comfortable with martinis, and now that fad is over.

I didn't have any alcohol for about a month while I went on a very restricted caloric diet. I'm at the first plateau in my weight loss journey and will probably stay at this level for several months, hopefully not as long as a year. Then I will begin the next phase in my weight reduction program.

Meanwhile, I am now trying to understand mezcal, after a recent article in The New Yorker. I only have on mezcal in the house -- I have no idea how critics rate it -- good, bad, indifferent -- but it is what it is: the label says "Mezcal' in huge 1.5 inch letters, with "Espadin-Joven" in three-quarter inch letters underneath. The label says it is "homemade by our own maestro mezcalero, in Matatlan, Oaxaca, Capital of Mezcal."

My first taste of mezcal: "hey, this is Islay scotch." Seriously. Others have had the same thought. I've had about half an ounce each of the last three nights mixed with various proportions of tequila and triple sec. Compared to the time it took me to become comfortable with understanding a martini, it appears that it will take considerably less time to become comfortable in my understanding of mezcal and margaritas.

I write all of that to say this: why I love to blog. One of my favorite other blogs is "Left Coast Cowboys," one of the better travel and food blogs. Some years ago the writer had an article on mezcal.