New Post-Boom Low, Active Rigs = 26; Last Of 10-Part Series On CBR -- RBN Energy -- April 25, 2016; Saudi Unveils Sustainable Economic Plan

US new home sales fall in March; third consecutive month for falling new home sales. AP is reporting, with a phrase one does not like to see in these reports: decline as sales plunged sharply in the Western states. I assume the $2000/month ObamaCare premium for a family is cutting into one's ability to take on a new mortgage. Maybe it's only $1000/month. I don't know. Whatever. The article didn't mention the 800-lb gorilla; it did mention that mortgage rates are at/near historic lows. It did not mention that the Fed may be "raising rates" later this year.

Active rigs:

	4/25/2016	04/25/2015	04/25/2014	04/25/2013	04/25/2012
Active Rigs	26	84	182	186	209

RBN Energy: victory of American ingenuity over crude pipeline delays and congestion.

The story of crude-by-rail (CBR) in North America is that of a victory of good old U.S. ingenuity over the lack of pipeline capacity that stranded booming shale oil production in 2012. The lower cost to market of “on-ramp” rail terminals allowed surging crude production a route to (mainly) coastal refineries - igniting a building boom over 4 short years that has left 82 load terminals and 44 destination terminals operating today  - many of them now underutilized.

Along the way monthly lease rates for rail tank cars that reached $2,750/month at the height of the boom are down to $325/month after the bust – with many lease holders paying daily rent to park their empty cars. Today we conclude our series reviewing the state of CBR today.

Cheap oil shaved $390 billion from Mideast economies in 2015; could be another $150 billion this year. The WSJ is reporting:

The International Monetary Fund estimates the Middle East’s oil-dependent economies have missed out on $390 billion in oil revenues last year alone and face up to $150 billion in income losses this year as a result of cheap oil prices.

The drop in revenues stemming from the export of oil is the direct result of the plunge in crude prices from around $115 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $30 at the start of the year and now above $40.

The loss in potential revenues has put an enormous strain on the economies of major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait who have posted massive budget deficits in the past year. The IMF had previously calculated that the declining energy prices would erase around $360 billion in oil receipts.

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 Saudi Arabia officially unveils long-term economic plan. CNBC is reporting:

Titled "Saudi Vision 2030," the plan includes regulatory, budget and policy changes that will be implemented over the next 15 years in the hope of making the kingdom less reliant on crude. It aims to build a "prosperous and sustainable economic future" for the kingdom, according to the press release.

The plan will no doubt include:

• using excess oil tankers to carry solar energy trapped in glass bottles
• expanded tourism; casinos in Mecca in the off-months 
• selling sand castles for the rich, famous, and gullible
• cross-desert NASCAR races limited to VWs bought back by the company 
• expanded PGA golf tournaments with a focus on sand traps
• Medina-derby camel races

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Gasoline demand to hit record. WSJ is reporting:

Money managers shrugged off the failure of the world’s biggest oil producers to agree on an output freeze as U.S. gasoline demand surged.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 8.3 percent the week after talks in Doha collapsed. Investors focused on falling U.S. output and higher fuel use as the peak summer driving season approaches. American gasoline consumption rose to 9.25 million barrels a day in March, an all-time high for the month, the American Petroleum Institute said April 21. 

“It doesn’t make sense to go short ahead of summer because of strong gasoline demand,” said Scott Roberts, co-head of high yield investments and manager of $2.7 billion at Invesco Advisers Inc. in Atlanta. “Refiners are coming back and with that crude demand.” from the highest close since November 10, 2015, last week.

Update on Saudi Aramco IPO. WSJ is reporting:

The Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the largest energy firm in the world, is likely worth between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion and will be turned into a holding company with publicly listed subsidiaries.

Less than 5% of the company, known as Saudi Aramco, will be publicly offered in a joint listing in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, possibly the U.S., said Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the second-in-line to the throne, in an interview with the Dubai-based television network Al Arabiya.

The prince outlined plans for Aramco as part of a plan to transform the kingdom’s oil-dependent economy into one more focused on private enterprise.

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Less Wind?

This was previously reported, but this story at utilitydive provides background that may not have been posted earlier: bottom line -- despite a 13% increase in wind capacity in 2015 (more wind turbines), the growth in wind energy generation showed lowest increase since record-keeping began, 1999, sixteen years ago.

One wonders if they're looking for wind in all the wrong places now that the best wind sites (Iowa, Texas, California) have been taken.

Looking For Love In All The Wrong Places, Johnny Lee

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The Apple Page

Apple's watch outpaced the iPhone in first year. WSJ is reporting. The headline has been changed. The WSJ must have gotten a phone call from Tim Cook.

Apple Inc. sold twice as many Watches as iPhones in each device’s debut year. Yet the smartwatch is dogged by a perception that seems premature given the history of Apple’s most popular devices: disappointment.

As the Watch marks its first anniversary on Sunday—two days before Apple’s quarterly earnings announcement—the product’s fate is critical to the company. It is Apple’s first all-new product since the iPad and a test of its ability to innovate under Chief Executive Tim Cook, when sales of iPhones are slowing.

​ So far, the numbers appear solid. Apple doesn’t disclose sales, but analysts estimate about 12 million Watches were sold in year one. At an estimated average price of $500, that is a $6 billion business—three times the annual revenue of activity tracker Fitbit Inc.