Locator: 44684B.
Only once before: that occurrence is .... well, if history doesn't repeat, it certainly rhymes. Link here.
FDA: bans red dye #3. All of a sudden RFK, Jr., doesn't look so extreme. This was Governor Newson's hobby horse. One of many.
XOM: natural gas discovery off Egypt. Link here.
STEO: I quit following the STEO reports a long time ago, but this certainly caught my attention.
Headlines: at the end of the day -- I'm getting ahead of myself -- Biden is making a lot of news in his last 20 days, but at the end of the day these last-minute actions will be ephemeral (banning oil exploration) or inconsequential (pardons). The real story will be what Trump does; already Trump seems to be making tectonic changes and he hasn't even been sworn in yet.
Exhibit A: California to pull its EPA waiver request regarding trucks.
Daimler EVs: Amazon places its largest-ever order for electric semi trucks. Amazon will add over 200 Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 electirc semi trucks to its fleet later this year (2025). Link here. These are destined for the UK and Germany. So many stories on so many levels.
Apple and Nvidia: lots of news in the past 72 hours. I might get to those stories; I might not.
Biden: we're going to need a whole page to track "Biden-legacy" stories over the next few days. Like every president, Biden is complicated. In Biden's case, he may turn out to be one of the most complicated presidents the US has ever seen. This is just a start:
Carl: ever since Carl moved to Bluesky he's become incredibly irrelevant. He used to post really, really good stuff on X -- though I don't agree with his politics -- but ever since he moved to Bluesky I haven't seen much.
Speaking of which: that MSNBC DEI-hire is another example of the chaos -- used in a positive sense -- that Trump is creating and he hasn't even been sworn in yet.
Trump: risks being accused of over-promising and under-delivering. But that might be good.
ERS: why hasn't someone thought about this before now?
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $77.72.
New wells:
- Thursday, January 16, 2025: 25 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 25 for the year,
- 40834, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 1402-1BH,
- 40115, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, Morgen Federal 158-93-17-20-10MBH,
- Wednesday, January 15, 2025: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 23 for the year,
- 40205, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 1402-2BH,
- 40099, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, LLC, Morgen Federal 158-93-17-20-1MBH,
RBN Energy: Alaskan crude oil production set to increase, but where will it all go?
After a long decline, crude oil production on Alaska’s North Slope is poised to increase, and it’s possible that by the early 2030s production could return to levels not seen since the turn of the century. It’s an exciting development for the 49th state, but where will all that oil go? With refining capacity on the decline in California, which has typically handled a lot of Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude, it’s not an easy answer. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the locations where ANS oil production could land — one of the many essential topics covered in our upcoming Future of Fuels report.
As we discussed in our first blog in this mini-series, Holding Out for a Hero, ANS crude oil production has been sliding for decades but is poised to rebound because of two long-planned projects — Pikka and Willow — which are slated to start in 2026 and 2029, respectively, and begin a new ramp up in Alaskan oil production. Although existing fields will continue to experience natural declines, new projects such as ConocoPhillips’s recently started Nuna drill site (which will add 20 Mb/d) will begin to boost volumes slightly this year. As a result, we expect that 2024 will be the nadir for Alaskan production (at least for the next two decades). The much larger Pikka project, due to start in early 2026, will push production to 490 Mb/d by 2028 (a gain of more than 20% from current levels). With the even larger Willow project starting up in 2029, we project Alaskan production will reach 660 Mb/d by 2032 as Willow ramps up to full operation.
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