Someone Buying Apache? Market Cap Now $18 Billion; Enterprise Value, $25 Billion -- November 8, 2015

Updates

November 13, 2015: Anadarko withdrew its bid for Apache.

November 10, 2015: it wasn't "China" that approached Apache recently; it was Anadarko.

Anadarko:

• market cap: $33 billion
• enterprise value: $50 billion
• debt: $17 billion
• cash: $2.0 billion  

For someone who doesn't follow Anadarko, would it be safe to post these data points:

• natural gas
• Colorado, Wattenberg field, Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin
• Apache with oil in the Permian would be a good fit

Original Post

BloombergBusiness is reporting:

Apache Corp., the oil and natural gas company worth more than $18 billion, has received an unsolicited takeover approach, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Houston-based company rejected the initial offer and is working with financial adviser Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on defense, said the people, who asked not to be identified because deliberations are private. The potential buyer, who could not immediately be identified, sent a letter to Apache in the past few weeks and it’s unclear whether talks will resume, one of the people said.

A spokesman for Apache couldn’t immediately be reached for comment outside of regular business hours. A representative for Goldman Sachs declined to comment.
Apache on November 5, 2015, reported a smaller-than-expected adjusted loss and boosted its 2015 production forecast.

It’s one of the biggest leaseholders in the Permian Basin in western Texas, the largest U.S. shale play and the only one where oil output has continued to grow even as drillers slash spending and idle rigs. It also explores in Egypt, the Gulf of Mexico, Canada and the Eagle Ford and Woodford shale basins in the U.S.

A deal for Apache would be the largest for an independent oil and gas producer in the U.S. this year. Noble Energy Inc. bought Texas shale driller Rosetta Resources Inc. for $3.9 billion, including assumed debt, in an all-stock transaction in July.

Over at Yahoo!Finance:

• market cap: $18 billion
• enterprise value: $25 billion
• debt: $9 billion
• cash: $1.7 billion 
• 378 million shares x $1.00/share annual dividend = $378 million
• 52-week high at almost $80/share = a market cap of $30 billion sometime in the past 52 wks
• 60% of $30 billion = $18 billion

The Concerts In China, Jean Michel Jarre

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Weyerhaeuser will buy Plum Creek: will become a $23-billion timber, land, and forest products company. 

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Monday -- November 9, 2015

Monday, November 9, 2015

• 30913, SI/NC, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14F, Bear Den, no production data,
• 31000, 576, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3231H-7, Robinson Lake, 35 stages, 2.4 million lbs; t8/15 cum 21K 9/15;

Sunday, November 8, 2015 
No wells listed

Saturday, November 7, 2015

• 27418, SI/NC, CLR, Garfield Federal 7-5H1, Banks, no production data,
• 29862, SI/NC, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14AXB, Bear Den, no production data,

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31000, see above, Hess, EN-Cvancara A-155-93-3231H-7, Robinson Lake:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	9027	9071	0	13589	12321	1268
BAKKEN	8-2015	14	11740	11583	0	14419	11710	2709

Update On A Well That Might Indicate Halo Effect Of Fracking -- November 8, 2015

For background to this post, which I think relates to a very interesting well and a very interesting phenomenon in the Bakken, go to this post. I am not going to go through the background or the "argument" all over again. So read first that post linked above before going on.

Okay, now that you have read it, note the production profile, now that we have another month of production data:

• 19013, 399, CLR, Bridger 2-14H, Rattlesnake, t12/10; cum 186K 9/15; this well is a THREE FORKS well:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	13506	13079	14062	16404	6351	10053
BAKKEN	8-2015	26	13306	13330	16161	15741	9783	5958
BAKKEN	7-2015	9	231	225	222	443	443	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	1276	1333	460	1925	1817	108
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	1390	1335	468	1786	1631	155
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	1395	1336	527	1892	1569	323
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	1639	1795	585	2142	2090	52
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	2021	2067	683	1993	1761	232
BAKKEN	1-2015	9	368	240	258	348	348	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	1524	1788	632	2142	2142	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	1606	1597	612	2110	2087	23
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	1562	1382	542	1882	1882	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	1481	1815	502	1836	1658	178
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	1579	1355	567	2022	1935	87

The production for the other well in this discussion:

• 29554, 290, CLR, Bridger 4-14H2, Rattlesnake, 4 sections, 30 stages, 6 million lbs, t7/15; cum 4K 9/15; this well is also a THREE FORKS well (B1 in the permit application). API: 33-025-02679-00-00:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2015	14	3801	3687	7088	4278	2161	2117
BAKKEN	8-2015	1	222	265	0	202	0	202
BAKKEN	7-2015	1	68	0	0	63	0	63

Random Example Of Bakken Well Being Choked Back; Random Example Of A Great CLR Well -- November 7, 2015

NOTE: this page has caused a lot of confusion. I discuss the confusion in one of the comments below; I don't want to go through it all again.  I recommend folks a) ignore the entire page; b) pay attention to the raw data and ignore my comments and subject lines; and/or c) read everything at your own risk. The comments might help. 

Note, July 30, 2016: I now see why this page caused so much confusion. The production profile was apparently incorrect.  

Updates

November 23, 2016: production profile update --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	8873	8165	17440	7022	6324	698
BAKKEN	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	2	75	65	324	37	34	3
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	24	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	4	282	730	614	164	157	7
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	5454	5325	12385	4045	3854	191
BAKKEN	12-2015	19	4235	4266	9802	3096	3057	39
BAKKEN	11-2015	17	3016	2950	8737	2318	2204	114
BAKKEN	10-2015	27	6851	6543	13642	4505	4004	5

July 30, 2016: it looks like the original production profile was incorrect, and has been updated since originally reported. See production profile in original post. This is the updated production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	2	75	65	324	37	34	3
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	24	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	4	282	730	614	164	157	7
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	5454	5325	12385	4045	3854	191
BAKKEN	12-2015	19	4235	4266	9802	3096	3057	39
BAKKEN	11-2015	17	3016	2950	8737	2318	2204	114
BAKKEN	10-2015	27	6851	6543	13642	4505	4004	501
BAKKEN	9-2015	17	2549	2663	7966	1846	1706	140
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	5428	5604	14561	3419	2996	423
BAKKEN	7-2015	29	10605	10431	18830	11016	8365	2651
BAKKEN	6-2015	6	1200	1344	2481	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	5	3096	3179	4393	2244	1805	439
BAKKEN	4-2015	24	10551	10534	14475	8694	7148	1546
BAKKEN	3-2015	30	17169	16883	26028	57332	13106	44226
BAKKEN	2-2015	17	11060	10953	17569	9615	8980	635
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	5388	5307	6267	3942	3685	257

November 8, 2015: I'm being told that this well is not being "choked back" as suggested by the title; water and natural gas are still being produced. I'm confused. It won't be the first time (that I'm confused).

November 8, 2015: see first comment. Reader wonders how a well that is producing water after six months produces absolutely no oil? One would think that some oil would come up with the water. I couldn't provide satisfactory answer; maybe someone out there knows. It has to be a simple answer.

Original Post

Note the production profile for this well:

• 26485, 3,454, Statoil, Hawkeye 16-21 3H, Todd, 34 stages, 5.9 million lbs, t1/15; cum 17K 9/15;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2015	17	0	0	7966	1846	1706	140
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	0	0	14561	3419	2996	423
BAKKEN	7-2015	29	0	0	18830	11016	8365	2651
BAKKEN	6-2015	6	0	0	2481	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	5	0	0	4393	2244	1805	439
BAKKEN	4-2015	24	0	474	14475	8694	7148	1546
BAKKEN	3-2015	30	17169	16695	26028	57332	13106	44226
BAKKEN	2-2015	17	0	0	17569	9615	8980	635
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	0	0	6267	3942	3685	257

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Random example of a great CLR well:

• 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/15; cum 180K 9/15;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	22198	22368	4018	27596	26392	1204
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	19512	19459	2524	19752	12130	7622
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	30482	30535	6024	37990	36782	1208
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	32301	32443	6513	43892	43622	270
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	24112	23865	3988	27484	27243	241
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	12868	12830	1280	13628	11772	1856

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Update On A Wildcat

28571, dry with plans to P&A, Roff Operating Company, Osterberg 2-16 H1, wildcat, far north, and east, about 6 miles northwest of Mohall, near Little Deep Creek oil field, a Madison formation area; if a good well, might extend Little Deep Creek east, no production data; very, very interesting -- the geologist's report states that the target was the middle Bakken; that the wellbore entered the middle Bakken target at 6,350 feet (shallow); oil present; gas values ranged between 50 and 100; the dipping suggests that anticlinal oil trapping structures could exist and be exploited; awaiting fracture/completion; spud August 20; ceases drilling September 13; total drilling days, 26; short lateral (640 acres); [Update: stimulated 5/15; 15 stages; 152K sand; many, many problems with the well, plan to P&A this well]. Mohall is near the Canadian border, about 50 miles NNE of Minot, ND; very little Bakken activity in this area

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High Volume, High Density Frack
Huge Production
SHD Well On Fort Berthold Indian Reservation

I track the Deep Water Creek Bay here, though it has not been updated in quite some time (I will do that when I find some time, if the spirit moves me).

Note number of stages and amount of proppant (62 stages, 15.3 million lbs); also note total production to date (>211K bbls)

• 19296, 2,388, SHD Oil & Gas, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, 62 stages, 15 million lbs sand, spacing ICO, t3/15; cum 365K 5/16;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	13597	13731	27738	10789	0	10789
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	17615	17237	12474	35799	0	35799
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	18846	18416	29250	13299	0	13299
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	21452	20597	29348	14637	76	12971
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	27545	27019	40307	17610	15838	129
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	30953	29896	46226	21505	16776	3139
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	50914	48348	68728	39880	2189	36048
BAKKEN	2-2015	23	30105	29502	70346	23000	0	23000

Random Update On CAPEX Cutbacks For 2016 -- November 7, 2015

Reuters/Rigzone provides some CAPEX cutbacks for 2016 in the shale oil industry. There is nothing new here that regular readers wouldn't already know, but Reuters puts it together in one place for a few companies. Some excerpts:

Top shale companies including Devon Energy Corp, Continental Resources Inc and Marathon Oil Corp this week released preliminary 2016 plans for capital spending that may fall by double digits.

Devon said it expects to spend $2 billion to $2.5 billion on exploration and production next year, down from about $4 billion this year.

Marathon Oil is cutting about $1 billion from its projections.

Oasis Petroleum Inc, which produces oil in North Dakota, said it expects to spend $350 million in 2016 on drilling and completion of new wells, roughly $200 million below what it plans to spend for those services this year.

Continental Resources, North Dakota's second-largest oil producer, said it will need to spend $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion next year to maintain output of roughly 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That would be less than half the roughly $3.4 billion the company expects to spend this year.

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Sam Phillips Book Review Over At The Wall Street Journal

Link here.  

Though he is acclaimed by his biographer as “The Man Who Invented Rock ’n’ Roll,” readers may still need some introduction to Sam Phillips.

Born in Florence, Ala., in 1923, Phillips moved to Memphis after World War II and got into the music business. As operator of a recording studio and later a record company, he discovered Howlin’ Wolf, Elvis Presley, Johnny Cash and Jerry Lee Lewis and made some of the earliest recordings of B.B. King and Ike Turner, including the 1951 song that some buffs consider the big bang in rock history, “Rocket 88.”

Phillips’s biographer may require less of a primer. Peter Guralnick is known for his decorated two-part chronicle of Elvis Presley’s life and his reverent but thorough fan-friendly style.

“Sam Phillips” represents his most personal foray into American music. Mr. Guralnick knew Phillips for 25 years and spent nearly a decade after Phillips’s death in 2003 writing his story. That’s longer than most rock ’n’ roll marriages. Mr. Guralnick shares his love for Sam early in the book, and Phillips clearly held up his side of the deal, sharing intimate details and private documents.

Obviously, much more at the link.

If there is a better DVD on Sam Phillips or Sun Records, I would love to know. And yes, the Muscle Shoals DVD is still the best.