Monday, May 4, 2015

Favorite Headline So Far Today -- May 4, 2015

"McDonald's to simplify structure, focus on customers.

Yup, that's the AP headline. Isn't that "Business 101"? Focus on the customers. But maybe I'm missing something.

But it gets better. The story continues:
McDonald's is restructuring its units into four groups based on the maturity of its presence in the market:
  • the flagship U.S. market, 
  • established international markets such as Australia and the United Kingdom, 
  • high-growth markets such as China and Russia, and, 
  • the rest of the world.
Previously, the business was segmented by geography.
Sounds pretty close to geography. 

It's Monday.

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Active rigs: 


5/4/201505/04/201405/04/201305/04/201205/04/2011
Active Rigs86185192211177

RBN Energy: how Gulf Coast infrastructure responding to Bakken crude.
The Phillips/Energy Transfer Nederland to St. James project plans a 30-inch diameter pipeline that should be able to carry over 700 Mb/d of light crude. That would be enough capacity to handle DAPL and ETCOP barrels coming out of the Bakken as well as additional crude coming into Nederland from the Permian and from Cushing via the TransCanada Cushing Marketlink pipeline. But more importantly, the pipeline will offer Bakken producers their first opportunity to ship crude direct from North Dakota to refineries in the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coast region by pipeline. As such the new route should offer shippers lower freight costs than existing rail alternatives. The result will likely be the displacement of significant Bakken volumes being shipped to St. James each day by rail.  
This is a very important article. It will be archived at the source, by the source.

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Post Office News From The Bakken

The Washington Post updates postal service in Williston, North Dakota, the heart of the Bakken. Not a pretty picture. They blame poor pay and yet any number of Williston fast food restaurants are thriving. This has little to do with pay and lots to do with bureaucracy.

By the way, while in Williston last week, I saw a residential postal carrier on her regular route delivering mail at 7:30 p.m.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Dickinson Refinery Begins Operations; Video Of The Bakken -- May 3, 2015; Chevy Cuts Prices On Volt

Refinery up. Press release:
MDU Resources Group, Inc. and Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. today announced that the Dickinson, North Dakota-based Dakota Prairie refinery, the first greenfield fuels refinery built in the U.S. in nearly 40 years, has commenced operations. The facility has begun producing diesel fuel and is expected to begin sales of diesel as the plant ramps up during May.
The refinery is designed to process 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) of locally sourced Bakken crude oil, resulting in a production slate that includes up to 7,000 bpd of diesel fuel that will be sold from the plant to regional, North Dakota-based customers.
Wasn't it just last week when MDU announced that they were hoping to have the plant opened up in the next couple of months or so ... it's amazing how fast things happen when earnings will be announced. MDU announces earnings after market close tonight. It will be interesting to see how much diesel will be produced this week -- now that the refinery is up and running. 

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Volt Down

Chevrolet cuts price on new Volt. USA Today is reporting:
The Chevrolet Volt is getting more electric-only miles, sleeker styling and a whole suite of improvements -- yet Chevrolet is cutting the price of its extended-range electric car by $1,175.
The price cut speaks to the difficult time that automakers are having when it come to selling fuel-conserving cars in a low gas-price environment. And it's not the first time that Volt got a price cut. The original Volt, not this all-new model, had its price reduced by $5,000 in August, 2013.
The new Volt is capable of being driven 50 miles on electricity alone, some 31% better than the outgoing Volt. It also has a backup gas engine.  
I assume the tax credits are good only for the original buyer, but I don't know.

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 Silliness

The Tesla home battery. Seeking Alpha is reporting:
It's pretty clear that without "going crazy", your house can easily draw 3kw of electricity; and yet, Tesla's 10kWh back-up battery has continuous output of only 2kw, and thus is inadequate to run even a medium-sized house, and would be completely dead in five hours anyway, with no capacity to run central air conditioning or charge an electric car.
(For a medium-sized house, a central air conditioner alone draws nearly 5kw.)
 ... a comparably priced 16kw natural gas-fired generator can run your entire house (including the air-conditioning) for as many hours as needed, at a cost of less than $2/hour (assuming 195 cubic feet/hour consumption at full draw and a New York State gas price of less than $10 per 1000 cubic feet of gas)?
By the way, another dot is connected. Why did this battery pack show up now?
... to find some use for millions of Panasonic cells that it has committed to buy without being able to sell enough cars to utilize them ...
I don't know that much about Tesla batteries but this rings true. Regardless, the Tesla battery pack runs about $3,500 and SolarCity has an installation package that doubles the price.

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Book
Memo to self: Dana Perino has a new book out.

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Short Video Of Highway Construction

This short video probably should be deleted and not posted, but it may be one of the few recordings of my 93-year-old dad talking about how these construction workers worked right through the winter this past year, whereas when he was growing up, construction workers often quit for the winter. The video is a few miles south of Williston, if I remember correctly.


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Cross-Country Trip

I try to get in two cross-country trips each year, generally one to California and back, and one or two to North Dakota and back.

I enjoy them all. Sometimes I'm by myself, sometimes I'm with my wife, and rarely (once) we go with the granddaughters. The trip with the granddaughters is always the most fun.

For whatever reason, this most recent trip back to Williston was one of the best I've had, possibly because a) I drove through Nebraska during the night, both directions; and, b) the weather was incredible, and the scenery spectacular, especially in Kansas.

Thinking about this, I wrote the following down why this particular trip seemed particularly nice -- all because I was driving by myself:
  • I could play the music I liked as loud as I liked
  • I could listen to all three hours of Rush Limbaugh (when I remembered, and when I found "his" station)
  • I could stop at McDonald's without anyone saying, "McDonald's? Not again!"
  • I could stop when and where I wanted; even if the rest stop looked "creepy," I could stop there
  • as soon as the car came to a stop, I was out the door, out of the car
  • I could read a book while driving
  • I could sleep at rest stops and not motels, and not feel guilty
  • I could write this list while driving

Random Look At Whiting's Non-Core Asset Sale -- May 3, 2015

From the "Snapshot" page:
  • 1Q15 earnings transcript;  774,000 net acres; sold non-core Bakken assets for $108 million;
  • 4Q14: KOG deal with Whiting closes. Whiting owns KOG. KOG ticker symbol no longer for Kodiak Oil and Gas. 685,000 + 183,000  = 838,000 acres (MT and ND)
Some back-of-the-envelope calculations: I know that Whiting had a non-core asset package that was all Bakken; how much more they had elsewhere, I don't know, but my hunch is, based on the rest of the transcript, most of that non-core asset package was in North Dakota. If so, 838,000 acres minus 774,000 acres = 64,000 acres.

$108 million / 64,000 acres = $1,700 / acre. Possible? Maybe. I don't know. Just thinking out loud.  This is a WAG as they say; don't make any financial or investment decisions based on this, or on anything you may have read at the blog, or think you may have read at the blog. If this is important to you, go to the source, and the source certainly is not the Million Dollar Way.

Whiting Transcript, 1Q15, Has Been Posted -- May 3, 2015; Whiting Has The Very Best Well In The Bakken To Date

Whiting transcript for 1Q15 has been posted over at Seeking Alpha. It most likely will be archived at the source, by the source.

This may be the most important transcript since the first couple of years of the Bakken boom. The CLR transcript, which will come soon, will be very interesting, but I think the Whiting, Oasis, and SM Energy transcripts will be the most important transcripts for 1Q15. 

Some readers will argue that Denbury should be added to that list. That's fine. There's room for five on the list. (Yes, that means there is room for one more, unannounced as of yet).

From the transcript:
Our objective this year is to rig and run the company to prosper at $50 oil. Clearly, the first quarter shows we have some of the most productive oil assets in the industry. With the reduction in well costs we're currently experiencing, by the fourth quarter, we should be able to maintain a strong production profile of approximately 160,000 BOEs to 162,000 BOEs a day on a quarterly spend of only $375 million. For 2016, as our base decline rate flattens, we believe this translates into a strong mid-single-digit growth profile on a $1.5 billion CapEx budget. This should approximate our cash flow at current strip prices.

Our total net production reached a record 167,000 BOEs a day, a 3% increase quarter-over-quarter. As you can see on slide four, 91% of our total production in the first quarter came from our Rocky Mountain region. At 133,500 BOEs a day, the Bakken Three Forks represents 80% of our total production. We are a focused company.

As recently reported in several publications, Whiting has the top two wells in the Williston Basin in terms of initial production rates. These wells are located at our Tarpon field in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The Flatland Federal 11-4TFH well produced at an initial rate of 7,800 boepd during a 24-hour test of the Three Forks formation, making this the very best well in the basin. The Flatland Federal 11-4HR well produced at an initial rate of 7,100 boepd during a 24-hour test of the Middle Bakken formation.

With our plays in the Williston Basin we control 774,000 net acres. We have over 7,500 future gross drilling locations in the Bakken and Three Forks. We control the sweet spots in the Central, Eastern and Southern Williston Basin where typical wells have cumulative production in the first 90 days of more than 50,000 boe.
Go to the linked transcript for much more information.

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First Solar Loss Wider Than Expected

Zachs is reporting:
First Solar Inc. FSLR reported adjusted first-quarter 2015 loss of 62 cents a share, much wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 29 cents. In the prior-year quarter, FirstSolar had generated earnings of $1.89 per share. The downslide is attributed to a plunge in revenues.
The largest solar-panel manufacturer of the nation reported its first quarterly loss in years as it planned to form a YieldCo with fellow solar company, SunPower Corp. SPWR. Moreover, delays in multiple projects under construction, a higher proportion of modules and the sale of the SolarGen 2 project in the prior quarter led to disappointing results.
Lots of excuses.

Guinness Book Of World Records? Children From 20 Foreign Countries And ALL 50 US States Have Enrolled At The Watford City Elementary School -- May 3, 2015

Updates

Later, 9:19 p.m. CT: to add to the story below, the new link --
Children from 20 foreign countries and all 50 states have enrolled in Watford City's Elementary School in the past three years.
It would be interesting to know if any other elementary school in the US can beat that. I know in NYC there are a lot of folks from foreign countries, but I doubt if workers from all 50 states have moved to NYC for work.

Later, 9:10 p.m. CT: to add to the story below, two points:
  • apparently Watford City has the second largest elementary school in the state; and,
  • Watford City will go to Class A high school competition in 2017-2018 school year, right up there with Dickinson and Williston and Minot and ...
Original Post

Don tells me there was an interesting story on this evening's new in the Dickinson area, a story of the "schools without borders" in the Watford City area. That story is now on the net at this link.

Here is a fairly recent article that tells the story in Watford City with regard to schools. As the slump in oil prices continue, I assume oil companies will continue to circle the wagons, keeping Williston and Watford City relatively busy while other western North Dakota cities take the brunt of the slowdown.

One of the metrics that will be interesting to follow will be public school enrollment in western North Dakota in the fall of 2016, not this coming school year, but the school year that begins in the autumn of 2016.

Now, back to that story. The AP is reporting:
WATFORD CITY, N.D. (AP) — Every morning as principal Brad Foss arrives at his school — after just a 60-second commute — he's reminded of oil's giant footprint in this town.
There's the revolving-door student roster that reads like random pages of a school atlas: Jiang from China, Emma from Utah, Jose from Guatemala, Omar from Arizona.
There are the teachers, many of them transplants, including a dedicated Kurdish refugee who's helping dozens of students learn English, a job that would never have existed until now. And there are rows of white trailers, temporary homes for several teachers — and for Foss, who's just a minute's walk from his office.
Like the rest of this town, Watford Elementary School has been transformed by the oil boom. Families with young kids are constantly moving in, undeterred by the recent plunge in oil prices. The 700-plus enrollment is more than double that of 2011.
Many newcomers are the offspring of riggers, welders, truck drivers, engineers and others lured from across America — and around the world — by the prospect of good jobs.
Their arrival has brought diversity to a school that until recently had virtually none. "We have a world community within our own little school," boasts Foss. "The kids here can bring the globe to life, and that's kind of cool." 
Much more at the link.

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Highway 85, Going South Toward Alexander
South Of The Lewis and Clark Bridge

Video taken April 28, 2015
   
I do not know what that large enclosed, circular structure is being used for that we passed at 44 seconds into the video.  

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Tweeting Now 
For The Archives

Baltimore:
  • black mayor
  • black police commissioner
  • black deputy police commissioner
  • half of police department is black
  • black city council president
  • 10 out of 15 city council members are black
  • 63% of the city is black
  • 87% of the city voted for Barack Obama
  • hasn't had a Republican mayor since 1967
Tell us again how Baltimore is a "white Republican" problem.