Less Blogging For The Moment -- Watching The Live Streaming Of Apple's WWDC; For Investor's Only -- Market Update

Needs Safari browser to follow live:

http://www.apple.com/apple-events/june-2014/

However, one can get the same thing here in text on any browser:

http://www.macrumors.com/


Be sure to scroll down for additional postings. I just brought five or six posts that were in "draft" status and posted them. They were written over the weekend, held until now, so that the Bakken wells coming off the confidential list were the first thing one saw last night, and going into this morning.

Now, the other posts that were written in the last 48 hours have been posted.

The June NDIC dockets are out. I posted some highlights; will post the entire summary later tonight, or later this week, when I have time. 

Lots of stuff going on.  

For Investor's Only

Trading at new highs: DIS, DVN, EPD, ERF, GDP, HAL, LNG, NFX, NRG, OXY, SLB, UNP, WFT.

In addition, SRE was just 4 cents off it's 52-week high, at $100.65. SRE traded at a new 52-week high, $100.74 before dropping back a bit.  CHK was up over 2% today. Add PSX to the list of those trading at a new 52-week high.

WTI oil is down about 50 cents; NG up about 4 cents.

June, 2014, NDIC Hearing Dockets -- Cases That Caught My Eye First Time Through

This was the first look, the cases that caught my interest the first time I went through the agenda. The full list is here.


Remember: last month EOG requested permission to drill 32 wells on a single 640-acre section. 

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

OXY USA has eight (8) cases requesting "an exception to NDA 43-02-03-21 and any other applicable regulations to allow the use of inflatable packers in the casing string in connection with cementing operations for the isolation of oil, gas or water-bearing formations.

22471, OXY USA, Fayette-Bakken, 14 hz wells on each of two 1280-acre units; 2 wells on one overlapping 2560-acre unit, Dunn
22472, OXY USA, Cabernet-Bakken, 14 hz wells on each of two 1280-acre units; 2 wells on one overlapping 2560-acre unit, Dunn
22475, KOG, Epping-Madison, an order to establish a zone of stand-up 320-acre units, sections 21,22, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, and 34 / 155-99; Williams
22476, KOG, Stockyard Creek-Madison, an order to establish a zone of stand-up 320-acre units, section 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 , 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 / 154-99; Williams
22478, BR, Cabernet and/or Fayette-Bakken; 12 wells in a new 2560-acre unit, Dunn
 22480, MRO, Antelope-Sanish, 14 wells in a 1280-acre unit; 16 wells on each of two 1280-acre units; 2 wells on a 2560-acre unit; McKenzie
22481, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 16 wells on a 1600-acre unit; 16 wells on a 1280-acre unit; 2 wells on a new overlapping 1920-acre unit; 2 wells on a new 3200-acre unit, Mountrail, McKenzie
22483, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Dunn
22484, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, to dissolve a 1600-acre unit and establish a new 1280-acre unit; Dunn
22489, KOG, Truax-Bakken, 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit; 7 wells on a 2560-acre unit; Williams
22490, Hess, Alger-Bakken, 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail
22491, Hess, Robinson Lake-Bakken, 11 wells on a 1280-acre unit, Mountrail
22492, Hess, Truax-Bakken, 10 wells on each of two 1280-acre units; 11 wells on one 1280-acre unit; 2 wells on each of two overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams
22493, Hess, Glass Bluff-Bakken, 6 wells on each of three 1280-acre units, McKenzie
22494, Hess, Sandrocks-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
22495, Hess, Juniper-Bakken, 6 wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
22496, Hess, Big Gulch-Bakken, 12 wells on each of two 1280-acre units; Dunn
22406, Hess, Big Gulch-Bakken, 12 wells on each of two 1280-acre units; Dunn
22499, SM, Charlson-Bakken, 12 wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
22504, QEP, Van Hook-Bakken, 16 wells on a 3200-acre unit, Mountrail, Dunn
22517, BR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, 8 wells on a 1280-acre unit, McKenzie 

Thursday, June 26, 2014

22520, EOG, Squaw Creek-Bakken, multiple wells on an existing 640-acre unit; McKenzie
22532, Triangle, Eightmile-Bakken, 14 wells on an overlapping 3840-acre unit, Williams, McKenzie
22545, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, 16 wells on each existing 1280-acre unit in Zones IV, Vi, and VI; 32 wells on each 2560-acre unit in Zones VII, VIII, and IX, Dunn
22546, CLR, Corral Creek-Bakken, 16 wells on each existing 1280-acre unit within Zones II, III, and IV, Dunn
22547, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, 16 wells each existing 1280-acre unit within Zones I, II, III, IV, V, and VI; 16 wells on each existing 1920-acre unit within Zone VII; 32 wells on each 2560-acre unit in Zones VIII and IX; Dunn
22548, CLR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, 16 wells on each existing 1280-acre unit within Zones II, III, IV, V, and VI; 32 wells on each 2560-acre unit in Zone VII; Dunn, McKenzie
22549, CLR, Rattlesnake Point-Bakken, 16 wells on each existing 1280-acre unit withink Zones I, II, and III; 16 wells on each existing 1920-acre unit within Zone IV; 32 wells on each 2560-acre unit in Zones V and VI; Dunn
22550, CLR, Oakdale-Bakken, 16 wells on each existing 1280-acre unit within Zone I; 32 wells on each 2560-acre unit in Zones III and IV; Dunn
22551, CLR, Chimney Butte-Bakken, 16 wells on each existing 1280-acre unit within Zones I, II, III, IV and V; 32 wells on each 2560-acre unit in Zones VI, VII, VIII, IX, and X; Dunn
22564, Newfield, Sand Creek-Bakken, 8 wells on each of two 640-acre units; 8 wells on each of two 1280-acre units, McKenzie
22565, Newfield, Westberg-Bakken, 3 wells on one 640-acre unit; 8 wells on one 640-acre unit; 8 wells on each of three 1280-acre units; McKenzie
22586, Slawson, Clarks Creek-Bakken, 14 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; McKenzie
22588, CLR, Edge-Bakken, 14 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie
22589, CLR, Camel Butte-Bakken, 14 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie

Monday, June 2, 2014

Active rigs:

	6/2/2014	06/02/2013	06/02/2012	06/02/2011	06/02/2010
Active Rigs	189	187	215	173	122

RBN Energy: continuing series on pipeline takeaway in the Permian.

Permian crude production is up over 1.5 MMb/d today and headed to 1.7 MMb/d by the end of 2014. Current hot spots include the Bone Spring, Avalon and Wolfcamp horizontal shale plays in the northern Delaware Basin located in Northwest Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Today we look at new and proposed gathering systems in the Delaware Basin that will transport over 200 Mb/d of crude from truck terminals to regional pipelines, rail hubs and refineries.

This Is What We Will Be Talking About Monday, June 2, 2014

There are two big events tomorrow: a) President Obama's new war-on-coal rules will be released; and, b) Apple will host the WWDC, San Francisco.

I was curious which one would get the most media attention. Then I read that President Obama won't actually be on stage when the new rules are announced:

Obama, who will not be present when EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy unveils the regulations on Monday, visited children suffering from asthma at a medical center on Friday and taped his weekly radio address - on climate change - while there.

So, that event will be a dud. 

By default, the big news event tomorrow will be the Worldwide Developer's Conference. There will be multiple opportunities to access the event live through on-line streaming. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Futures mean squat but it's all we have at the moment to gauge investor sentiment regarding the new EPA rules on the war-on-coal. Dow futures have been increasing steadily all evening, starting at 6:00 p.m. EDT. Futures were initially (for the Dow) up one point, then up seven points, and now up a remarkable 30 points, rising, as more and more information is posted about the new EPA rules. I say "remarkable" because the market has been reaching new highs almost every day for the past several weeks. Obviously, the new EPA rules are not particularly worrisome for investors. 

Meanwhile, WTI oil futures are also up by a respectable 44 cents and now again above $103/bbl. Natural gas is up 3 cents to $4.58, again, very respectable.

Natural gas is going to be the big winner in the continuing war-on-coal.

Futures mean squat, so it's anybody's guess which way the market will go tomorrow. For everyone it should be a win-win. If the market blows off the new rules (which appears to be the case at the moment), it will be a win for bulls. If the rules are worse than currently being telegraphed, and the market plummets, it's a buying opportunity. The market's response to the new rules will be temporary. Once the 30-30 plan (30% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2040) sinks in, folks will remember that presidents come and go. The year 2030 is a long time from now; the Bakken will only be reaching its stride. The plan will generate a lot of ink, and a lot of campaign dollars for both sides (probably the real intent of the announcement at this point in time) as well as get folks' minds off ObamaCare.

Anyway, bottom lines:

• Apple's WWDC will be a bigger story tomorrow; very little has leaked out
• we now know the 30-30 plan; even President Obama won't be on stage to mark this magic moment
• regardless how the market reacts tomorrow, it will be a win-win for all

I can hardly wait. 


This Magic Moment, Lou Reed

Hess: BOTPE Annual Stockholders Meeting, May 1, 2014 -- NOT READY FOR PRIME TIME -- THIS WILL BE RE-POSTED AT A LATER DATE BUT IF YOU FOLLOW THE BAKKEN, THIS SHOULD BLOW YOU AWAY

A lot of this is "cryptic," done quickly; raw data. I will leave it up to the reader to connect the dots. It may be one of the best Bakken posts this week. I will re-post it later, with additional comments.

Slide 13, Hess presentation, 2014 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, May 7, 2014

From the slide:

• 640,000 net acres
• estimated recoverable resource: ~ 1.2 billion boe

BOTPE (back of the proverbial envelope):

• 1,200,000,000 boe / 640,000 acres = 1,875 boe / acre ?
• 1,280 acres x 1,875 boe / acre = 2.4 million boe -- just saying; or,
• 640 acres x 1,875 boe / acre - 1.2 million boe -- just saying....
• the "announced" EURs: 
• in general: 350,000 to 600,000 bbls
• CLR: 603,000 bbls
• EOG: trending toward 900,000 bbls
• Filloon, in the best Bakken: 1 million bbls

From the slide:

• 640,000 net acres
• > 3,000 total operated drilling locations

BOTPE:

• 640,000 / 3,200 locations = 200 acre-downspacing (compare this number with downspacing figures below the asterisks below)

From other operator presentations over the past two years:

• 1,280-acre spacing unit / 6 middle Bakken wells = ~ 200 acre-downspacing

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Downspacing? Look at some interesting cases from the June NDIC Hearing Dockets:

• 22551, CLR, Chimney Butte-Bakken, 16 wells on each existing 1280-acre unit within Zones I, II, III, IV and V; 32 wells on each 2560-acre unit in Zones VI, VII, VIII, IX, and X; Dunn
• 22564, Newfield, Sand Creek-Bakken, 8 wells on each of two 640-acre units; 8 wells on each of two 1280-acre units, McKenzie
• 22565, Newfield, Westberg-Bakken, 3 wells on one 640-acre unit; 8 wells on one 640-acre unit; 8 wells on each of three 1280-acre units; McKenzie
• 22586, Slawson, Clarks Creek-Bakken, 14 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; McKenzie
• 22588, CLR, Edge-Bakken, 14 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, McKenzie

2560 / 32 = 80-acre spacing
640 / 8 = 80-acre spacing
1280 / 14 = 90-acre spacing
1280 / 16 = 80-acre spacing

There seems to be a trend.

Oh, I missed one. I am not making this up, unless I made a typo. But if there is no typo, look at case 22586, Slawson, privately held (deep pockets?) is looking to put 14 wells on a 650-acre unit:

640 / 14 = 45-acre spacing

These fields are some of the best, and they may not even be the best fields.

Oh, don't forget EOG:

Remember: in May, 2014, EOG requested permission to drill 32 wells on a single 640-acre section:

640 / 32 = 20-acre spacing

Compare this downspacing with the BOTPE figures for Hess up above (200-acre spacing).

I track the Westberg oil field here. Here are a couple of updates from the Westberg oil field:

July 12, 2013: Whiting with two huge wells:

• 22388, 4,956, Whiting, Skaar Federal 41-3-3H, Westberg, middle Bakken; Pioneer 74 Flex rig; gas averaged 276 through the lateral but spiked to 3,895 units and above; did not see completion data;  t6/13; cum 244K 4/14 @10,000 bbls per month oil.
• 22386, 4,456, Whiting, Skaar Federal 41-3-1H, Westberg, middle Bakken; Pioneer 74 Flex rig; gas averaged 484 throughout the lateral, but spikes of 7,000 units and above were noted; did not see completion data; t6/13; cum 213K 4/14; @13,000 bbls per month oil.

October 12, 2011: incredible Westberg well:

• 18691, 3,731, Newfield, Wisness Federal 152-96-4-2H  --- 35,849 bbls in first 25 days. Okay. Westberg field, Bakken. One section spacing. Middle Bakken at 10,573 feet.  26 stages. 2.2 million pounds of proppant;  no acid. s4/11; t7/11; cumulative 61,336 bbls in 53 days (less than 2 months); total depth 16,012 feet; fracked "on time." Sand only. I.N.C.R.E.D.I.B.L.E. Cumulative 287K 4/14 @ 4,000 bbls/month oil.

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409, Junior Brown and The Beach Boys