This Winter Just Doesn't Quit: 9 of Minnesota's Top 10 Walleye Fishing Lakes Might Be Frozen Over Opening Day

The (Minneapolis) StarTribune is reporting:

Henry Drewes, DNR regional fisheries manager in Bemidji, said 26 to 36 inches of ice covers Lake of the Woods, Upper Red, Leech and Cass lakes, which are in his region. What are the chances ice will be gone by May 11?

“I think it’s highly unlikely,’’ he said. “There’s still a foot of frozen slush and snow on top of that ice. It would take extraordinary circumstances for those basins to be ice-free by May 11.’’

The same situation exists on Winnibigoshish, Rainy, Kabetogama, Vermilion and Mille Lacs. And lakes in the northeast, though not in the top 10, also could be covered with ice on the opener.

Rick McKeever of Young’s Bay Resort at the Northwest Angle of Lake of the Woods said there’s not much hope the ice will be gone there in just two weeks.

“There’s 3 solid feet of ice out there yet,’’ he said Friday.

Last year, the resort had its boats in the water by early April. “We were golfing in March,’’ McKeever said. 

This Is Refreshing ... A Little More Science, And A Little Less Political Correctness

From Pittsburg, the AP is reporting:

The Environmental Protection Agency has dramatically lowered its estimate of how much of a potent heat-trapping gas leaks during natural gas production, in a shift with major implications for a debate that has divided environmentalists: Does the recent boom in fracking help or hurt the fight against climate change?

Oil and gas drilling companies had pushed for the change, but there have been differing scientific estimates of the amount of methane that leaks from wells, pipelines and other facilities during production and delivery. Methane is the main component of natural gas.

The new EPA data is "kind of an earthquake" in the debate over drilling, said Michael Shellenberger, the president of the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental group based in Oakland, CA. 

"This is great news for anybody concerned about the climate and strong proof that existing technologies can be deployed to reduce methane leaks."

The scope of the EPA's revision was vast. In a mid-April report on greenhouse emissions, the agency now says that tighter pollution controls instituted by the industry resulted in an average annual decrease of 41.6 million metric tons of methane emissions from 1990 through 2010, or more than 850 million metric tons overall. That's about a 20 percent reduction from previous estimates. The agency converts the methane emissions into their equivalent in carbon dioxide, following standard scientific practice. 

So, we'll see where this goes next. I'm surprised the study was funded. I'm even more surprised the results were published. And published in the mainstream media. Albeit on a Sunday when no one is paying attention.

Kearl Oil Sands -- Canada

Bloomberg is reporting that Exxon Mobil is beginning production at Kearl Oil Sands:

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest company by market value, began production at its Kearl oil sands project in Alberta, which is projected to produce 4.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the next 40 years. 

The project will produce 110,000 barrels per day later this year and that’s expected to double by late 2015, the company said in a statement. The Kearl site is 46 miles (75 km) northeast of Fort McMurray, Alberta, and is operated by Imperial Oil Ltd., which is 70 percent owned by Exxon Mobil. 

Data points:

• C$13 billion
• will ship oil to Imperial / XOM refineries to offset low crude oil prices
• Imperial is looking at rail to ship this oil due to pipeline constraints in western Canada

Coincidentally, in an article published at The Oil Drum the same day as the above story, it was noted that the Kearl Oil Sands is not affected by the Keystone XL: 

Canada is expected to reach a production total of 4 mbd by the end of the year, with the largest impact coming from the Kearl Oil Sands production anticipated to bring 110 kbd to market in the third quarter. (This is not dependent on the Keystone pipeline.) 

The (Calgary) Globe and Mail also has a nice article on the Kearls Oil Sands:

Even Imperial reported lower earnings in this first quarter compared to 2012, in part because of discounted prices for its Cold Lake bitumen. Imperial’s earnings in the first quarter of 2013 were $798-million, down 21 per cent or $217-million from the first quarter of 2012. The company said the lower earnings “were primarily attributable to the impacts of lower liquids realizations of $270-million, higher refinery and Syncrude maintenance effects of $165-million and higher Kearl production readiness expenditures.”

One analyst said the Kearl mining project will be a less important factor in pricing and the differential than the opening of Enbridge’s Flanagan South expansion, which is slated to come on stream in 2014. The pipeline link will help to get heavy oil to markets on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

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So, how are the pipeline opponents doing? They seem to be winning the verbal debate. The key words in that preceding sentence: "seem" and "verbal."

The Calgary Herald is reporting: 

“Psst. Big Oil. We’re winning …”

Psst, NIMBY environmentalists: yes, sort of, but no, not really.

The above quote was tweeted by Vancouver green activist Tzeporah Berman this week after B.C. NDP Leader Adrian Dix said he will oppose expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, and follows a series of recent “wins” for foes of new oil pipelines in North America.

From lengthy delays in reviews for Keystone XL and Northern Gateway to the negative publicity over crude oil pipeline ruptures from Alberta to Arkansas, the opposition appears to be winning the battle for media headlines this spring.

Gloating, however, might be premature.

Berman isn’t simply some yahoo on Twitter. She has legitimate credentials as a former co-director of the climate unit at Greenpeace International and a founder of ForestEthics, but she is overstating the impact of pipeline protests.

Actually she is a yahoo. These NIMBY activists are one-trick ponies. 

Two trends:

a) Big Oil is winning
b) more rail in the short- to medium-term

There are two arenas: a) the political arena; b) the investing arena

Political arena:

I don't care who wins on the pipeline story: activists or realists. I have no control over it and it will be what it will be (Kennedy: worry about the things one can change; don't worry about the things one can't change, or something to that effect)

Investing arena:

• it looks like manufacturers are going to be busy making rail tank cars for quite some time
• companies with rights of way already in place have a nice head start

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you've read here. 

Energy Costs? Advantage: US

The New York Times is reporting:

A slowdown in Europe’s efforts to exploit its shale gas reserves, roughly 10 percent of the world’s deposits, could not come at a worse time for Europe’s companies, which are already suffering from a continental debt crisis and anemic growth and are becoming increasingly uncompetitive compared with rivals in the United States.

In America, energy-intensive industries like manufacturing and chemical production have benefited from a drastic fall in fuel costs because of a domestic energy boom in shale oil and gas. Natural gas prices, for example, have fallen by almost 67 percent over the five years, and the United States is on track to become the world’s largest oil producer by 2017, according to the International Energy Agency.

Fuel costs for European companies, by contrast, remain roughly double those of their American competitors, while many countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, are dependent on natural gas imports from Russia. Also, the Continent’s fossil fuel production has fallen steadily over the last 10 years, even as global demand rises.

Second Coldest Start to Spring In US History

Real Science is reporting.

The only year when the spring started colder was 1975.

Except for the graph, that was the full story.

I did not post this for the story; it is posted for the comments which are a must-read.

I assume this data will be plotted on the appropriate graph; the question is which graph will NASA use?