Tuesday, January 22, 2013

WTI/Brent Spread; WTI and Bakken Light Sweet Nears Parity At Clearbrook, MN

Updates

Later, 3:14 pm: CNBC is suggesting that oil is up a solid 50 cents today because the Nebraska governor has approved the new Keystone XL route. Even if President Obama approved the pipeline today, it would have no effect on earnings of any oil company for at least a year, except possibly negative earnings for TransCanada who is paying to build it. The price oil went up today for reasons completely unrelated to the Keystone. A lot is going to happen between today and the day the first Alberta oil sees Cushing via the extra-large Keystone pipeline. TransCanada is actually trading lower after the announcement. TransCanada investors are aware this is going to be a huge expense of TransCanada and there are at least two more environmental fights left to go.

Original Post
WTI: $95.70
Brent: $112.07

Bloomberg. Dynamic. 9:38 est Tuesday. Spread: $16. So much for the huge change that some folks predicted with the Seaway expansion AND reversal.

I track the spread here.

However, the spread between WTI and Bakken light, sweet oil narrows, now down to $3.25, which in the big scheme of things is parity. And that's probably a direct effect of increased takeaway out of the Bakken.

So, how's the market doing at midday? Wow, the price of oil keeps melting up, up another $0.60 and solidly above $96, and as noted above, WTI and Bakken near parity at Clearbrook.
  • Union Pacific Railroad trading at new 52-week highs. In fact, all-time highs.
  • BRK-B also hits another high.
  • CVX up a bit, approaching its 52-week high.
  • SRE hits another all-time high.
  • EPD hits an all-time high. EEP is up almost 2% on a day that Keystone XL route is approved by Nebraska governor.
  • COP and PSX not at new 52-weeks high but doing very well.
  • The Bakken-centric operators flat to down, most likely due to expected decreased production during cold December month. Later, it looks like OAS hit an all-time high.
  • An exception: EOG hit a new 52-week high, but but a significant pullback; and I don't see any news regarding EOG except it was one of Cramer's six sixty-second stocks, which some associate with "the kiss of death."
  • T and VZ both up despite announcing huge write-offs in 4Q12 for pension-related costs.  
  • BAX flirting with all-time highs.

Tuesday Links -- For Those Coming To Read About The Bakken, Please Skip This Post; All Bakken All The Time Is The Sidebar At The Right

Wells coming off confidential list have been posted; scroll down; a few other unrelated posts are also up. Just scroll down until you start seeing stuff you saw yesterday. Good luck to all.

I apologize: a fair amount of typos today. Typing in the dark. Long story.

RBN Energy: gas processing economics, part V.

Cold day in Boston, but no wind, so riding a bike was not an issue; a very nice bike, in fact; actually quite nice; bright, sunny day. The weatherperson predicted 3 -5 inches overnight. We got maybe a quarter inch. None on the streets due to the fast work of the "salters."  The weatherperson who predicted 3 - 5 inches of snow overnight was the same weatherperson who predicts a 1.7 degree increase in global temperature over the next century. If there's anything I've learned about weather and climate forecasting, weather is a lot more difficult to forecast, and one sees results a whole lot sooner. Climate forecasting is really, really, easy, as long as one has a TRS-80 or better.

But I digress. What's going on in the world? Boston Globe: the president's emphasis going forward -- climate control, gay rights, and something else. I forget the third. Something similar. I'm reading a great biography of Jeannette Howard Foster (b. 1895; leader in lesbian rights); fascinating story; used the word "gay" in her poetry, she says, but always associated it with joyful / mirthful in the early days. I'm not far enough in the book to know when/if she "modernized" the word. Her preference was lesbian. The author: Joanne Passet. I assume most folks coming here for the Bakken aren't interested in this, so I will alert them in the subject line.... and then move on to the Wall Street Journal.

WSJ Links

Section D (Personal Journal): Sports page -- prepare to be harbaughed. A new word. Nice.

If you get the print edition, consider cutting out this article and hanging it on your refrigerator door; should do wonders for your relationship with that significant other: "Put a Stop to 'Do I Look Fat?'"

Section C (Money & Investing):  
Just what is working on the railroad? One railroad not listed on the list at that link: BRK-B, a regional monopoly serving the Bakken and Warren Buffett. Surprisingly, a railroad I associate with coal is leading the list of EPS growth estimates at almost 60% -- Genesee & Wyoming.

Oh, by the way, nothing to do with the WSJ, but along with the biography mentioned above that I am reading, I am also reading Debt: The First 5,000 Years by David Graeber. I read about ten pages every night before I fall to sleep. That's a keeper. I understand better why Tim Geithner and others suggest the debt ceiling is "so yesterday." I'm starting to agree. More on that later, perhaps.

Back to the WSJ.

Section B (Marketplace):
More bad news for Boeing. No links; it's all over the news. Those lithium batteries. If this is a design defect, "B" is for Bad news. Or Burning Batteries.

Huge article: deal trips up Caterpillar in China. Maybe a speed bump, but I don't think "tripped." As in stumbling, falling to the ground. That I would reserve for HP and Autonomy.

Section A:
This was my wife's mother's favorite piece of sculpture: the Manneken Pis in Brussels. My mother-in-law was Japanese, born not too far away from ground zero; not in the area at the time, obviously. Immigrated to America. Loved America. Really amazing. Really, really bright, smart. Came over when she was eighteen years old, or so, maybe twenty. "Disowned" by her family for marrying a non-White American, though even a white American would have been beyond the pale. Never looked back. Reconciled with her family after her first child (to be my wife many years later, but, of course, that was not in the tea leaves back in 1947, or whenever it was). Visited Japan almost yearly in her adult life; she paid for her trips back to Japan from Los Angeles with "tip money" earned as a waitress in a .... Japanese restaurant. When we went for drives, I was only allowed to buy gasoline at the Chevron station that was owned by a Japanese family. The line she once used I will never forget while driving in Los Angeles: "Take a reft at the next right." [Translation: take a left at the next light. I figured that out fast enough to make a lane change, but it was close.]

So, front page, at the bottom, the WSJ has a story on the Brussels Mannekin Pis, my mother-in-law's favorite piece of sculpture. It appears the link is "blocked" but you can probably find the story elsewhere.

How interesting. Up above I mentioned HP and Autonomy. Now, on the first page, bottom right, I see this: inside H-P's missed chance to avoid a disastrous deal.

Stan Musial, I see, died Saturday, age 92. In a place far away and long ago, I had a significant other who would talk to me about "Stan the Man." Two completely different men in the headlines in the op-ed section today: Lance Armstrong and Stan Musial. There's a picture of one of them smiling. I will let you guess which one. A hint: he's holding a baseball bat.

Okay, that's it. Forward. To the Bakken.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here. The stuff about the Japanese restaurant was not an inside tip to invest in Asian Fusion. 

Phil Moving To Belgium? -- Even a Bakken Connection

Updates


January 23, 2013: Another honest opinion on taxes -- Tiger admits he left California because of high taxes. Remember, he was a Stanford man. It would be interesting to know how many Hollywood A list actors claim another state as residents. Tommy Lee Jones lives in Texas, as far as I know, unless he has moved.
 

January 22, 2013: This shows how crazy the discussion about Phil has become. The talking heads are focusing on "the number." CNBC heads say there is no way he is paying 62% in taxes as someone said he said. At most, he's "only" paying 52% according to these talking heads. Wow! Only 52%. And the talking heads don't even seem to realize that 52% is more than your income going to taxes. And, he certainly could be paying 62%. Maybe he doesn't take any advantage of loopholes, being a loyal, patriotic American who wants to pay his fair share. Except that after 61%, it's becoming slightly more than "fair share." It sounds like the CNBC talking heads are suggesting to Phil, he needs to take advantage of more of those tax loopholes, like investing in wind turbines. I can't make this stuff up.

Original Post

[Wells coming off confidential list will be reported have been posted; WPX with a gusher.]

There is nothing in this story about "Phil" moving to Belgium.

The link is to a story about Phil Mickelson complaining about his taxes. He said his taxes have increased so much he is considering retiring from the game. It sounds like he is remorseful about going public, but it doesn't sound like he's changing his tune.

I don't think his ObamaCare taxes have rolled in yet.

And so it goes. I don't even know what would make me think that "Phil" would consider moving to Belgium.

Oh, the Bakken connection: 3.8% surcharge on oil and gas royalties for ObamaCare. It's nice to see other bloggers have their own thoughts on this.

*******************

Meanwhile, former French prime minister Sarkozy is moving to London to avoid the new, high taxes in France.  Good for him. And his girlfriend.

For Investors Only: SLB, WMB -- Dividend Increase Announced

From last Friday: WMB and SLB announce dividend increases.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Simply news.

WPX With a Gusher; Wells Coming Off Confidential LIst Today; Corinthian With a Nice Spearfish Well

Active rigs: 186 (nice)

  • 22282, 898, Whiting, Tomchuk 21-30PH, Green River; t7/12; cum 27K 11/12;
  • 22804, drl, Hess, LK-Dukart 145-97-0310H-4, Little Knife,
  • 22938, drl, BEXP, Banks State 16-21 4TFH, Banks,
  • 22969, 105, Corinthian Exploration, Corinthian Berge 13-25 1H, North Souris, Spearfish; t10/12; cum 7K 11/12;
  • 23021, 495, WPX Energy Williston, LLC, Independence 2-35HC, Mandaree,  Three Forks; 50K in  two months; t10/12; cum 51K 11/12;

22282, conf, Whiting, Tomchuk 21-30PH, Green River:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201247321344
10-201271190
9-201242850
8-201283370
7-201220350

22969, conf, Corinthian Exploration, Corinthian Berge 13-25 1H, North Souris, Spearfish

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201234080
10-201230350


23021, conf, WPX Energy Williston, LLC, Independence 2-35HC, Mandaree, 50K in less than two months;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20122813017013
10-2012228618785