Wildcat Bob

If "Wildcat Bob" is no longer posting, it's a huge loss.

He, too, has / had a non-commercial site blogging about the American oil industry, and being a retired petroleum engineer his posts are / were superb and much more credible than mine. In addition, his posts were focused on investing, which I assume most people who follow my blog are interested in. I write on the margins about investing.

He only posted a couple of months, earlier this year, but the information he provided was excellent. Hopefully he will get back in the game, even if it is just for a couple of posts. Having said that, it is interesting, and potentially rewarding, to re-read his few posts. Much of what he said about investing has not changed.

The Bakkenshale blog is another excellent example of infrequent but very interesting postings.  My hunch is that both of the authors have "proved" their point: the Bakken is very, very interesting to follow and now it's up to us individually to carry the torch. It would take another huge story in the Bakken to make it worthwhile for some authors, I suppose, to blog.



I Call Your Name, But You're Not There, Billy J. Kramer and the Dakotas. If this sounds like a Beatles song, that shouldn't be surprising. It was written by John Lennon and Paul McCartney.

Elk Oil Field

PERMITS

2016

2015 (the list is complete)
31594, loc, Triangle, Simpson 151-102-4-9-14TFH,
31593, drl, Triangle, Simpson 151-102-5-8-13H,
30927, 756, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-2HX, t7/15; cum 64K 11/15;
30875, drl, XTO, Roen 24X-23AXD,
30758, SI/NC, XTO, Roen 24X-23A,
30757, SI/NC, XTO, Roen 24X-23E,
30756, SI/NC, XTO, Roen 24X-23BXC,

2014 (the list is complete)
30230, drl, Triangle, Simpson 151-102-5-8-4H,
30229, loc, Triangle, Simpson 151-102-5-8-9TFH, 
30220, conf, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-1H, producing, a huge well; 11/15;
30219, 622, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-10TFH, t7/15; cum 41K 11/15;
30218, dry, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-2PA,
29989, conf, CLR, Lancaster 6-28H1,
29988, conf, CLR, Lancaster 7-28H,
29985, conf, CLR, Lancaster 4-28H1,
29984, conf, CLR, Lancaster 5-28H,
29956, loc, Triangle, Novak 152-102-35-26-6H,
28820, 755, Triangle, Simpson 151-102-5-8-10TFH, t5/15; cum 35K 11/15; only 9 days in 11/15; 
28819, drl, Triangle, Simpson 151-102-5-8-3H,  
28818, 605, Triangle,  Simpson 151-102-5-8-2H, t2/15; cum 59K 6/15; choked back;
28817, 818, Triangle,  Simpson 151-102-5-8-1H, t3/15; cum 43K 6/15; choked way back;
28751, 337, CLR, Miramar 3-32H1, t3/15; cum 16K 6/15; chocked way back;
28750, 441, CLR, Miramar 2-32H, t2/15; cum 32K 6/15; choked back;
28513, 725, Triangle, Britt 151-102-4-9-4H, t11/14; cum 86K 6/15;
28512, 994, Triangle, Britt 151-102-4-9-3H, t11/14; cum 80K 6/15;
28511, 600, Triangle, Britt 151-102-4-9-2H, t11/14; cum 89K 6/15;
28510, 412, Triangle, Britt 151-102-4-9-1H, t11/14; cum 91K 6/15;
28472, 435, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-7H, t11/14; cum 92K 6/15;
28471, 533, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-8H, t11/14; cum 81K 6/15;
28420, 868, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-4H, t10/14; cum 107K 6/15;
28419, 671, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-3H, t10/14; cum 97K 6/15;
28175, 613, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-1H, t9/14; cum 108K 6/15;
28174, 640, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-2H, t9/14; cum 76K 6/15;
28173, 836, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-3H, t10/14; cum 85K 6/15;
28172, 955, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-4H, t10/14; cum 50K 6/15;
27944, 678, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-3H, t8/14; cum 99K 6/15;
27943, 341, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-9TFH, t8/14; cum 66K 6/15;
27942, 661, Triangle, Eckert Foundation 152-102-22-15-4H, t8/14; cum 95K 6/15;
27687, 2,855, Whiting, Roen 34-10-2H, t5/14; cum 105K 6/15; 
27379, 657, Triangle,  Monson 152-102-35-26-2H, t7/14; cum 81K 6/15;
27378, 852, Triangle, Monson 152-102-35-26-3H, t6/14; cum 107K 6/15;
27377, 487, Triangle, Monson 152-102-35-26-4H, t6/14; cum 98K 6/15; 

2013
26723, 447, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-5H, t4/14; cum 93K 6/15;
26722, 640, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-6H, t4/14; cum 89K 6/15;
25269, 497, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-2H, t10/13; cum 83K 6/14;
25036, 428, Triangle, State 152-102-36-25-1H, t10/13; cum 89K 6/14;
24913, 2,424, Whiting/Petro-Hunt, Roen 24-10-3H, t5/14; cum 33K 6/14;
24912, 2,607, Whiting/Petro-Hunt, Roen 24-10-2H, t5/14; cum 33K 6/14;
24911, 2,585, Whiting/Petro-Hunt, Roen Federal 24-10H, t5/14; cum 38K 6/14;

2012
24474, PNC, Murex, Dawn Hebert 22-15H,
23975, 535, Triangle, Monson 152-102-35026-1H, t7/14; cum 2K 6/14;
22930, 225, CLR, Lancaster 1-33H, t10/12; cum 117K 6/14;
22392, 1,382, Oasis/Zenergy, Wahlstrom 310H, t8/12; cum 101K 6/14;
22330, 3,050, Statoil/BEXP, Taylor 14-23 1H, t12/12; cum 133K 6/14;
22218, 804, Whiting/Petro-Hunt, Roen 34-10H, t7/12; cum 125K 6/14;

2011

• 20485, 762, SM Energy, Barnes 2-2H, Elk, s5/11; t7/11; cum 229K 11/15; off-line much of last three months;
• 20588, 1,492, BEXP, Mrachek Trust 22-15 1H, Elk, s7/11; t9/11; cum 135K 11/15;
• 20661, 302, SM Energy, Hoehn 2-13H, Elk, s9/11; cum 74K 11/15;
• 20867, 534, SM Energy, Stepanek -18H, Elk, s8/11; cum 155K 11/15;
• 20948, 745, XTO/Denbury, Stepanek 31-17SWH, Elk, 12K in 1/12; t1/12; cum 161K 11/15;
• 21190, 2,581, Statoil/BEXP, Lyle 21-16 1H, Elk, t4/12; cum 187K 11/15;
• 21470, 949, Zenergy, Monson 2-11H, Elk, t10/12; cum 132K 11/15;
• 21506, 934, Denbury, Roen 24-23NH, Elk, t2/12; cum 129K 11/15;
• 21566, PNC, CLR, Miramar 1-32H, Elk,
• 21601, 783, CLR, Miramar 1-32AH, Elk, 14K in January, 2012, t1/12; cum 164K 11/15;

This permit caught my eye when I saw it on the daily activity report, Friday (September 17, 2010).

• 19572, 342, Slawson, Bonanza 1-21-16H, Elk, s10/10; t5/11; cum 145K 11/15; off-line 2-3/2015;

This Slawson permit is one section east of two great BEXP wells:

• 18522, 2,616, Statoil/BEXP,  Papinaeau Trust 17-20 1-H, Elk, t3/10; cum 239K 11/15;
• 18653, 2,803, Statoil/BEXP,  Tjelde 29-32 1-H, (Glass Bluff oil field - see below),  t5/10; cum 188K 6/15;

In addition to these wells, Tracker has these permits:

• 19219, 811, Hess, Brostuen 6-1H, Elk, Bakken, s10/10; t12/10; F; cum 146K 6/15;
• 19885, 524, Hess, Tattu 19-1H, Elk, Bakken, s12/10; t4/11; cum 186K 6/15;

Other wells:

• 16321, 80, Statoil/Brigham Oil and Gas, LP,  Mrachek 15-22, Elk, Bakken; t12/06; cum 126K 6/15;
• 16542, 560, a Red River well, Whiting, Lindvig 11-13, Elk, Red River, t6/07; cum 387K 6/15;

Comments:

Tjelde 29-32 1-H is technically in Glass Bluff oil field but it's right on the corner/border and for all practical purposes is in the Elk oil field. Regardless which field it is in, it is right in the middle of a "hot" BEXP area.  Slawson saw that and went for a permit right next to the Tjelde, and got it Friday.  BEXP gets a bit of press regarding its high IPs; it will be interesting to see what Slawson does.

This field has been fairly quiet during this most recent boom (there was only one permit granted in 2009 in the Elk oil field), but it has been very active in earlier booms. That IP of 560 for the Lindvig 11-13 is very interesting: it was a conventional well targeting the Red River. The Mrachek well must have been a very early long lateral. It's a bit truncated and the GIS map server suggests there were challenges with that well. It should be noted that the Mrachek was drilled by Brigham Oil and Gas, LP, not BEXP, obviously a forerunner of the latter or otherwise related. My myth is that the Bud Brigham was "experimenting" early with long horizontal wells. If memory serves me well, and I'm going way back before I really started following the Bakken, I believe it was Marathon that gets much of the credit for going horizontal in an earlier mini-boom in western North Dakota, before the Bakken.

For investors, the best way to invest in Slawson, not publicly traded, is through NOG which partners with Slawson. Recently, at the 2010 Enercom conference, NOG said is will be maximizing opportunities to partner with EOG and Slawson.

ELK OIL FIELD

The Elk Oil Field has been active for about as long as the oil industry has been around in western North Dakota. It includes most of two townships, 151-102 and 152-102. The field is on the south side of the river, directly south of Williston (North Dakota). Going south on US 2, the field is on your right; from the highway you can see wells in the Elk oil field, but US 2 does not go through the field. I remember that area very, very well, passing it every time we drove to the North Unit Theodore Roosevelt National Park, or farther south to the South Unit or to catch Interstate 94. (Of course, I didn't know it was a named oil field at the time. I just remember my dad pointing out wells "in the grasslands." There's something magical about the phrase, "in the grasslands.")

Until recently (September, 2010) the Elk had been a relatively quiet field, but with two big BEXP wells (Papineau Trust and the Tjelde) it is now garnering new interest. Tracker has a confidential well in the field and Slawson was just granted a permit in that field (September, 2010).

To the best of my knowledge, there are no towns or villages "in the grasslands"; nothing but wonderful farmland, mostly grain.

On Google maps, satellite views, one can see lots of oil pads in this area.

Google Maps -- Satellite View

I could be wrong, but it seems like the satellite view on Google Maps has improved immensely. It seems one can zoom in closer and see the images more clearly.

This is so good, I have to post it again. I posted it earlier today but I can't get enough of it, so here it is (again):




Gene Simmons' (KISS) Military Salute

For Investors: KOG -- Nice Move Up in Two Weeks

KOG has quietly moved back up without much fanfare. After KOG's announcement to issue more shares, its share price dropped fairly quickly and predictably.

Just two weeks ago, on August 31, 2010, KOG sold for as low as $2.46. Since then KOG has risen quietly, up more than 25 percent, and is now back up to $3.10.

If I could turn back time, I would take back those words I said about KOG. Smile.

For newbies, there's an incredible amount of information on this site, and it's all ad-free, unless something's embedded in a link that's not mine. I would direct you first to "Running With Oil" if you want to know what the Bakken is all about. 


If I Could Turn Back Time, Cher

Where Do We Stand in the Bakken, After a Particularly Tough Week

Where do we stand in the Bakken, or more accurately, where do we stand in "the oil patch" in North Dakota?

1. Takeaway capacity: yes, takeaway capacity exceeds production in the Bakken -- UNTIL an Enbridge pipeline gets shut down. Then we see how narrow the gap is between production and shipping. It's already been announced that the pipeline shutdown is going to cost some producers significantly: missing their third quarter production targets, and, in a worse case scenario, could result in producers missing their full year production targets. For investors, that spells a bad end for 2010. North Dakota hit a production record in July; if that record is NOT broken in August it will be due to the Enbridge pipeline breaks (yes, two of them in one quarter, both of which caught national attention); this will be (painfully) interesting to anticipate. That TransCanada Keystone XL pipeline can't be put in soon enough (scheduled to be operational in 2013, if I remember correctly). The Keystone will take Bakken oil to the gulf coast for the first time and offer an alternative to Enbridge.

2. Increased density wells: We are now seeing more and more wells in one section. Some (Hess and CLR) are doing it from multi-well pads. Others (Whiting) are doing it the old-fashioned way: just a lot of individual wells in one section. I think EOG is doing it the Whiting way. If I'm wrong, someone may point it out to me.

3. Drillers are expediting their expedited CAPEX programs. CLR and BEXP are each raising $300 million or more in senior note offerings. The BEXP offering generated enough interest that the company increased the offering from $250 to $300 million.

4. Record number of rigs drilling in North Dakota. There are 146 active rigs in the North Dakota Bakken. (For newbies, that link will take you to the current rig count in North Dakota. that number may vary from day to day, and may be as low as 139 on any given day, but the day this note was first posted, there were 146 active rigs in North Dakota -- the record.) What is surprising is that this record number of rigs is holding despite the fact that there appears to be the beginning of a new boom where it all started in Elm Coulee on the Montana side of the Bakken, and increased interest farther north in Montana, again along the North Dakota border. Drillers are moving some of their rigs to the Montana side, but the all-time high (146) for active rigs in North Dakota held this past week.

5. Concerns: a) global economy continues to sputter putting pressure on price of oil; b) oil supply surplus continues; worse, if anything; c) strength of dollar puts pressure on price of oil. Risk of federal takeover of fracking regulations looms larger than ever. The story may start and finish in the Marcellus in Pennsylvania. In the big scheme of things, Pennsylvania has more to do lose than North Dakota, although it would be hard to imagine anything more painful than the Bakken shutting down for two to three years while regulatory language is written. North Dakota would remain solvent. But if the nascent shale natural gas industry is stopped in Pennsylvania, the city of Harrisburg will go bankrupt, and the state will be in deep doo-doo.

6. Speaking of fracking. For those who may have missed the story, we are now in the third generation of fracking. The first generation was single-stage stimulation. The second generation was taking that to high single-digit and low double-digit stage stimulation. Some companies moved quickly from 14-stage stimulation to 40-stage stimulation, called "super-fracking" by some. It will be interesting to see what the new "normal" will be. I don't think we will know until we listen to corporate earnings presentations next time around, or maybe one more earnings cycle after that. Watching the cost of a well might give us some indication whether super-fracking was used.

7. For investors: if I were a trader, I would be looking at selling into strength right now, raising cash in expectation of further price pressure on oil and Bakken-related company shares in the near term.  I'm not a trader, and I will ride this out. I have been putting extra cash into high-dividend and/or high-distribution Bakken companies to raise cash. There are some reports that the majors may have to increase their dividends to give support to share price.

8. Wells coming off the confidential list in October:  74. This compares to 76 wells that came off the confidential list in September.






Military Tribute, Gene Simmons (bassist for "KISS"). I think you would be surprised to know who Gene Simmons really is.