Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Deep Water Rigs Moving Out of the Gulf: Probably Never to Return

This is the fourth rig that is moving out of the Gulf (Discoverer Americas drillship/Transocean) that I know of, and can document a link. This is a Transocean rig which will move to Egypt next week (mid-Sept, 2010). The Marianas in the next paragraph has already departed for Nigeria. (Links break without subscription after period of time.)

This is the third rig that is moving out of the Gulf (Marianas/Transocean) (actually, it's the third rig that I know of, and can document a link). This is a Transocean rig which will move to Nigeria, and is under contract with Italy's ENI. I doubt "we" will ever see this rig back in the Gulf -- at least in my investing lifetime. 

This is the second rig to move out of the Gulf (Ocean Endeavor/Diamond Offshore). Once moved, unlikely to return for a very long time.

The story of the first rig to move from the Gulf is posted here (Ocean Confidence/Diamond Offshore).

So much for American energy independence.  Louisiana is in a world of hurt. That's what happens when they elect a governor the administration does not like. The administration directs yet another moratorium on off-shore drilling, based on criteria other than depth of water. Anything to destroy the oil industry.

NEWS

September 1, 2014: the statement that rigs are never likely to return seems to have been wrong. There are reports that the GOM is "back."

May 29, 2012: more evidence that after-spill actions taken by the government caused more economic damage than the incident itself.
Only days after the incident, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar issued a moratorium on new permits for deepwater offshore oil drilling over strenuous objections from the industry and the impacted region itself. The Gulf Coast's continued support for offshore drilling is unsurprising, given that though the moratorium only applied to 33 applications, those included some of the more profitable projects for the region. A report from Louisiana State University estimated the cost to the region of a moratorium could reach as high as $2.1 billion and more than 8,100 jobs. Across the country, the report expected as many as 12,000 jobs to be lost.

One year after the implementation of the moratorium, a study conducted by Quest Offshore Inc. for the National Ocean Industries Association and the American Petroleum Institute suggested that slowed drilling permit approvals under the Obama administration and the moratorium had contributed to the loss of more than 60,000 jobs through the Gulf region from 2008 to 2011.

An API-commissioned study from Quest Offshore estimated even more dramatic losses, suggesting that as many as 90,000 jobs had been lost in 2011 alone. As many as 11 offshore oil rigs were thought to have left for calmer waters in Brazil, Egypt and Angola, with total costs for the Gulf Coast through 2015 estimated at around $21.4 billion.
December 30, 2011: interesting spin by the AP.  Compare this article with the industry's take on the permitorium in the story below, dated December 23, 2011. This is all about spin-Obama. In case the link breaks, this is a story that says that after 18 months, the "Gulf is back." 

December 23, 2011: despite a lifting of the ban on drilling in the Gulf, rigs not coming back. 

July 22, 2010, on CNBC: Diamond Offshore/CEO on CNBC says the Gulf moratorium will result in direct loss of about 200 US jobs. Some of the senior employees on their rigs will move with the rigs to Africa. The CEO is concerned that if the moratorium is prolonged, training of personnel to work on deep water rigs will shift overseas, eventually ceding US dominance in deep water drilling to other countries. (Personally I doubt that will happen, but the employees will be coming from countries other than the US as these rigs move overseas.)

Market Up; Oil Up!

2nd quarter earnings starting to come out.

Good luck to all. I wish I had more time to post, but spending time with family and traveling, so lengthy posts will have to wait.

But Bakken stocks are headed up.


Alcoa: earnings up, better than expected
CSC: earnings up, better than expected
INTC: posts biggest profit in a decade; beats analysts' expectations
YUM: profits better than expected; misses analysts expectations

Monday, July 12, 2010

Off-Topic: Weyerhaeuser Huge Payout, Transitions to a REIT

Converting to a REIT, Weyerhaeuser will lower its federal tax by 35%, increase shareholder distributions, and pay out a huge initial distribution, amounting to about $26. WY shares sell for about $37.

Most of that initial payout will be in the form of stock; cash distributions are limited to 10% of the total distribution.

According to the message boards, the distribution will be taxable and may result in taxes greater than the cash payout. 

REITs often pay no corporate income tax.

I Am Still Traveling: Posting Less Often

My political note for the day:

I will be traveling later this week, boarding an airplane to return to Boston, and then later this summer, Amtrak to the Bakken. I was reminded that when traveling, because I am a legal citizen of the US, I must carry certain documents:

I must show my ID when:
  • Pulled over by the police
  • Making purchases on my department store credit card
  • When I show up for a doctor's appointment
  • When filling out a credit card or loan application
  • When applying for any kind of insurance
  • When filling out college applications
  • When donating blood
  • When obtaining certain prescription drugs
  • When making some debit purchases, especially when out of state
  • When collecting a boarding pass for airline or train travel
Exceptions apparently exist for undocumented folks living in some jurisdictions.

Speaking of passports, the price for a first-time passport goes up 35% today, from $100 to $135. I guess the recession has not hit some agencies in the US government.

Talk of Private Equity Firms "Flipping" Bakken

For those traders who are agile in buying / selling, this article from Reuters is of interest: private equity firms looking to buy Eagle Ford and Bakken shale, and then selling again for a profit.

Whiting (WLL) and Brigham (BEXP) are both mentioned.