Wind projections miss estimates.
I guess wind projections are a lot like "IPs."
Over-promising and under-delivering.
Friday, May 14, 2010
ND Production Update
"Production in North Dakota's prolific oil path continues to grow exponentially," --- Associated Press, May 14, 2010.
"At the current pace, North Dakota is quickly gaining ground on California, the nation's third-biggest oil producer, industry officials say." -- ibid.
ND: 4,736 active wells
ND: average of 277,403 bbs/day (March, 2010)
Compare to 150,000 bbls/day in April, 2008.
A record 8.6 million bbls produced in March; up from previous high of 7.3 million bbls/day in February.
Prediction: production could hit 300,000 bopd this summer and 350,000 bopd next year.
Even natural gas production is setting new records: "an unprecedented 8.6 million cubic feet.
There are 114 active rigs in North Dakota; the last time there were a 100 rigs in ND was 1982. Thre was a record 146 rigs in October, 1981, but modern horizontal-drilling rigs are eight (8) times as efficient as the old rigs, according to experts.
California: 550,000 bopd
Alaska: 635,000 bopd
Texas: 1,000,000 bopd
"At the current pace, North Dakota is quickly gaining ground on California, the nation's third-biggest oil producer, industry officials say." -- ibid.
ND: 4,736 active wells
ND: average of 277,403 bbs/day (March, 2010)
Compare to 150,000 bbls/day in April, 2008.
A record 8.6 million bbls produced in March; up from previous high of 7.3 million bbls/day in February.
Prediction: production could hit 300,000 bopd this summer and 350,000 bopd next year.
Even natural gas production is setting new records: "an unprecedented 8.6 million cubic feet.
There are 114 active rigs in North Dakota; the last time there were a 100 rigs in ND was 1982. Thre was a record 146 rigs in October, 1981, but modern horizontal-drilling rigs are eight (8) times as efficient as the old rigs, according to experts.
California: 550,000 bopd
Alaska: 635,000 bopd
Texas: 1,000,000 bopd
How Many Wells Can You Squeeze Into a Section?
Out here in the suburbs of Los Angeles, specifically along the coast and in the municipalities of San Pedro, Long Beach, and Huntington Beach, one can find pumpers among residential communities. One will find one, two, and sometimes, even three, pumpers hidden behind a tall brick fence covered with foliage. These pumpers have been here for decades; I remember seeing them back in the 1970's when I went to school out here. Off and on over the years, the pumpers were sometimes pumping, sometimes dormant. Right now, all of them are pumping. It's quite interesting to see. I would assume many of these are strippers now, pumping less than 50 barrels / day, but that's $3500 at the wellhead per day for something that probably costs a few dollars to operate.
But I digress.
What I really wanted to talk about was the number of wells that Whiting is going to squeeze into its leases in the Sanish. Check out Case 12695 that was added to the NDIC Hearing Docket scheduled for Friday, May 28: Whiting is requesting fifteen (15) 1280-acre spacing units in the heart of the Sanish where it already has two long laterals per two sections. The townships affected are: 153-93, 152-92, 153-92, and 154-92, 152-91, 153-91, 154-91, and 153-90.
Whiting's "big" Bakken wells are in this area: IPs in the range of 1,500 to 2,500. (Yes, "we've" discussed the issue of IPs before, but I don't think Whiting is drilling to lose money.)
Update: after posting the above, I ran across this discussion thread -- BEXP will also be putting in as many as four wells in each 1280-acre spacing unit due to poor permeability in the Bakken. This explains why fracking is so important, and it also suggests that fracking is very limited in geographical reach -- perhaps my 400-foot reach is too optimistic. Will EOR (CO2 injection) be the real key to success once all those wells are in place? Wouldn't it be ironic if CO2 production (a "greenhouse gas") keeps America hooked on oil? Will there be enough CO2 to stimulate all those oil fields? Smile. One can only hope. Is CO2 injection a one-time shot, or is it continuous? Is there going to be a whole new pipeline industry developed for CO2 injection. (As a reminder: the science for global warming due to man-made CO2 production has been debunked. This reminds me of Woody Allen's movie Sleeper in which after waking up after years of sleeping, it's been determined that smoking is good for one's health.) When all the trees in the Amazon die because there's a relative dearth of CO2, then the government will pay us to generate CO2. Smile.
But I digress.
What I really wanted to talk about was the number of wells that Whiting is going to squeeze into its leases in the Sanish. Check out Case 12695 that was added to the NDIC Hearing Docket scheduled for Friday, May 28: Whiting is requesting fifteen (15) 1280-acre spacing units in the heart of the Sanish where it already has two long laterals per two sections. The townships affected are: 153-93, 152-92, 153-92, and 154-92, 152-91, 153-91, 154-91, and 153-90.
Whiting's "big" Bakken wells are in this area: IPs in the range of 1,500 to 2,500. (Yes, "we've" discussed the issue of IPs before, but I don't think Whiting is drilling to lose money.)
Update: after posting the above, I ran across this discussion thread -- BEXP will also be putting in as many as four wells in each 1280-acre spacing unit due to poor permeability in the Bakken. This explains why fracking is so important, and it also suggests that fracking is very limited in geographical reach -- perhaps my 400-foot reach is too optimistic. Will EOR (CO2 injection) be the real key to success once all those wells are in place? Wouldn't it be ironic if CO2 production (a "greenhouse gas") keeps America hooked on oil? Will there be enough CO2 to stimulate all those oil fields? Smile. One can only hope. Is CO2 injection a one-time shot, or is it continuous? Is there going to be a whole new pipeline industry developed for CO2 injection. (As a reminder: the science for global warming due to man-made CO2 production has been debunked. This reminds me of Woody Allen's movie Sleeper in which after waking up after years of sleeping, it's been determined that smoking is good for one's health.) When all the trees in the Amazon die because there's a relative dearth of CO2, then the government will pay us to generate CO2. Smile.
GIS -- What Does It Mean?
This is a "random" post as my daughter would say.
Yesterday, while listening to news while visiting southern California, it was noted that a team from a company called "Geographical Information Systems" was sent to the Gulf of Mexico to help with the oil spill. It finally dawned on me what "GIS" stands for at the NDIC map: GIS Map Server. If you go there, the map server is in the sidebar on the left, about halfway down.
If anyone is really interested in "GIS," click here for a Wikipedia discussion. It's sort of like GUI ("graphical user interface" -- the acronym made famous by Apple Computer, Inc., years ago when talking about "WYSIWYG" -- pronounced "wissi-wig"). It's hard to believe but there was a time with WINTEL (Microsoft Windows software / Intel chip), one did not always have such a nice interface.
Understanding the NDIC GIS Map Server, Tips:
1. Spacing units
Yesterday, while listening to news while visiting southern California, it was noted that a team from a company called "Geographical Information Systems" was sent to the Gulf of Mexico to help with the oil spill. It finally dawned on me what "GIS" stands for at the NDIC map: GIS Map Server. If you go there, the map server is in the sidebar on the left, about halfway down.
If anyone is really interested in "GIS," click here for a Wikipedia discussion. It's sort of like GUI ("graphical user interface" -- the acronym made famous by Apple Computer, Inc., years ago when talking about "WYSIWYG" -- pronounced "wissi-wig"). It's hard to believe but there was a time with WINTEL (Microsoft Windows software / Intel chip), one did not always have such a nice interface.
Understanding the NDIC GIS Map Server, Tips:
1. Spacing units
Thursday, May 13, 2010
X-Designated Wells (Whiting)
I will follow up on this at a later date, but if you look at T153N-91W, sections 7 and 18, in the Sanish oil field you will see six Whiting wells, all running parallel, all long laterals, and all very interesting. Four of them are middle Bakken. One of them is a TFS well based on its designation (Marmon 12-18TFH, #18500) and one of them is an "X" well (Moore 14-7XH, #18853). X = TFS or middle Bakken? One would think TFS, but the X may signify another middle Bakken lateral lying between two other middle Bakken wells. If so, this appears to be a test to compare a TFS lateral between two middle Bakken wells, and an "X" (middle Bakken lateral) between two existing Bakken laterals.
The middle Bakken laterals are separated by about 1740 feet; the TFS lateral sits dead center, but, of course, vertically separated by 50 to 200 feet, I suppose.
For those interested in a discussion on "X" wells, click here and scroll to the top.
These are not yet on my "watch list," but maybe they should be.
The middle Bakken laterals are separated by about 1740 feet; the TFS lateral sits dead center, but, of course, vertically separated by 50 to 200 feet, I suppose.
For those interested in a discussion on "X" wells, click here and scroll to the top.
These are not yet on my "watch list," but maybe they should be.
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