Sunday, October 7, 2012

For Investors Only: Earnings Season Coming Up; CNBC's Analysis of the Economy Based on Restaurant Numbers; Bogus?

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There is this teaser at the Yahoo!Finance page:  Which Industry Had a Double-Digit Jump in Hiring? The link takes you to this, saying it was the restaurant industry:

From CNBC:
As the markets continue to focus on today's monthly non-farm payrolls numbers, a breakdown of the data show that hiring has been strong within the restaurant industry. 
In September 114,000 jobs were added on a net basis across the country, of those 15,700 were in the restaurant industry which accounted for nearly 14% of all the jobs added. The restaurant industry was ranked second in September's job creation. In August, restaurants held the number one position, as 28,300 jobs were in the food services group, accounting for more than a quarter of the jobs added that period.
A drop from 28,300 jobs in August (a bad month for jobs claims) to 15,700 jobs in September (a much better month), a 44.5 percent drop.

But then you go to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Health care added 44,000 jobs in September. Job gains continued in ambulatory health care services (+30,000) and hospitals (+8,000). Over the past year, employment in health care has risen by 295,000. 
In September, employment increased by 17,000 in transportation and warehousing. 
Employment in financial activities edged up in September (+13,000), reflecting modest job growth in credit intermediation (+6,000) and real estate (+7,000). 
Manufacturing employment edged down in September (-16,000)
In September, job losses occurred in computer and electronic products (-6,000) and in printing and related activities (-3,000). 
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.
I assume the "restaurant" category CNBC says is leading the employment list is part of "leisure and hospitality." If so, the CNBC report does not square with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  On top of that, by CNBC's own story, the number of new hires by restaurants dropped by nearly 50% from August to September.

A "resurgence" of the restaurant industry might indeed foreshadow an improving economy, but going to the BLS I just don't see it. The CNBC guys are incredibly smart, so I am most likely missing something. I did not delve very deeply into the BLS report, no deeper than the agency's executive summary.

Stock Splits

Company and effective month
  • ONEOK, June, 2-1 
  • Plains All American, October, 2-1


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