Friday, October 14, 2016

Bakken Update: Mike Filloon -- EOG Is Big Winner With New Well Design -- October 14, 2016

Mike Filloon: EOG Big Well Design Winner In The Bakken And Probably Everywhere Else.

Summary:
  • Well design can alter production significantly over the first five years of well life
  • Some operators try to keep well costs down hurting economics significantly
  • Results in the Bakken and other plays seem to show that operators will be forced to use Mega-Frac's or suffer in this new lower oil price environment
  • EOG is the pioneer of enhanced completions, and seems to be far ahead of the competition
Look at the average EURs in the chart below for these operators. The difference is striking!

From Mike Filloon: 
The table below provides the current average recoveries for all the wells analyzed. Using a hyperbolic decline extending production three years an EUR was developed. This provided a 5-year EUR. Each operator had differing start times, so this varied from 50 to 62 months. The EURs did provide some interesting results:
Operator EUR (BO) Total Months Recovered Oil Months Produced Remaining Recoveries Remaining Months
HES 220,700 59 134,789 23 85,911 36
CLR 365,185 60 169,674 24 195,512 36
Petro-Hunt 304,504 62 179,552 25 124,951 37
XOM 184,260 59 108,976 23 75,284 36
ERF 484,192 57 344,088 21 140,104 36
COP 181,459 59 140,428 23 41,032 36
EOG 567,286 50 408,610 14 158,676 36


Three four comments:
  • these are five (5) year EURs
  • these wells will go on to produce for 35 years
  • it is very possible workover rigs and the "halo effect" will "up" the final EURs
  • for EOG: 500,000 bbls in less then two years -- staggering

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