Director's Cut, June, 2015, Data; Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

Updates

August 15, 2015: USA Today also has a story on North Dakota production. 

August 14, 2015: on August 10, 2015, just four days ago, the Obama Administration predicted that Bakken production would decrease by 27,000 bopd. In fact it rose by almost 9,000 bopd.

The Eagle Ford continues to represent a bulk of the overall oil output declines, projected to fall 56,000 b/d in September to 1.48 million b/d. The Bakken is expected to fall 27,000 b/d to 1.16 million b/d, and the Niobrara is expected to fall 18,000 b/d to 399,000 b/d.

Original Post

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The June data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2015-07-10.pdf.

Important data points:

• Bakken price in July: $39.41
• Fracklog: 825 (60 less than at the end of May)
• Completions: 149 (116 in May, 2015) -- fewer wells going to SI/NC status
• To maintain production near 1.2 million bopd: 110 - 120 completions needed each month
• Statewide flaring: 17% 

Delta, crude oil production:

• 1,211,178 - 1,202,615 = 8,563 bopd
• 8,563 / 1,202,615 = 0.7% increase month-over-month

Oil:

• June, 2015: 1,211,178 (preliminary)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
• delta: see above

Producing wells: 

• June, 2015: 12,864 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565

Permitting:

• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2015: $28.50
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46

Rig count:

• Today:  74 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192

Director's comments: (Needs to be updated)

Operators are not committed to running fewer rigs than their planned 215 minimum as drill times and efficiencies continue to improve and oil prices continue to fall. This has resulted in a current active drilling rig count that remains 5 to 10 rigs below what was operators indicated would be their 2015 average if oil price remained below $65/bbl.

The number of well completions rose sharply from 116 (final) in May to 149 (preliminary) in June as a large number of NC status wells reached the 1-year deadline for completion or TA approval.

Drilling rig count: 

• rig count remains unchanged this month (June to July)
• dropped 5 from May to June
• dropped 8 from April to May
• dropped 17 from March to April 8
• dropped 25 February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Rig utilization:

• no change
• 20,000+ feet rigs: 45% 
• shallow well rigs: 25% 

Well completions:

• June: 149 (preliminary)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather:

• one significant precipitation event in Minot and Williston
• 5 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• no days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed: (needs to be updated)

• At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
• At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
• Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd

Flaring:

• capture target, current: 85%
• capture target, after October, 2016: 90%
• flaring today: unchanged at 18%; statewide capture 82%
• finally, the Tioga gas plant was down slightly to 90% of capacity (from 93% last month)
• expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea is still delayed; the project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.

Gas capture statistics: (needs to be updated)

• statewide: 82% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 84%
• NOTE: the daily volume of gas flared from May to June was up just 1.6 MMcfd; last month the volume of flaring increased 23.5 MMCFD (a reversal from last month when flaring had decreased month-over-month)
• NOTE: ONEOK announced plans to hook up 700 wells in the Bakken (natural gas hook-ups)

Fracking policies/regulations: (see source linked above; way too much to post)

Natural gas exploration in Emmons County: (unchanged)

The exploration well is no longer on confidential status as of 12/23/14; the well has not been completed yet, but appears to contain 2 pay sections totaling about 80 feet thick with very good gas shows.