More Back of the Envelope Calculations

ND Cumulative Oil Production By Formation Through December 2009

Pool.....Cumulative Oil (Bbls).... Percent of Total....# of Wells

Bakken....................119,635,155.......6.86%......1563
Bakken/TFS..................188,597........0.01%............7
Birdbear....................18,136,909.......1.04%.........171
Devonian...................98,911,118.......5.67%.........137
Madison..................905,377,939......51.92%......5469
Lodgepole.................55,848,939........3.20%..........48
Lodgepole/Bakken.............5,883........0.00%............1
Mission Canyon...............17,533........0.00%............1
Red River A,B, C....217,552,348......12.48%......1221
Sanish........................13,224,939........0.76%.........58
Spearfish (all 3).........54,300,149........3.11%........331
Tyler (2).....................17,846,818........1.02%..........87

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USGS Estimates of Recoverable Reserves in the Williston Basin

Unconventional

• Bakken-Lodgepole Total Petroleum System (TPS): 3,645 million

Total Unconventional: 3,645 million

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Conventional

• Bakken-Lodgepole TPS:  12 million
• Winnipeg-Deadwood TPS: 3 million
• Red River TPS: 56 million
• Winnipegosis TPS: 2 million
• Duperow (Souris/Birdbear): 33 million
• Cedar Creek TPS: 20 million
• Madison TPS: 45 million
• Tyler TPS: 15 million

Total Conventional: 197 million

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Comments

Total Cumulative Through December 2009: 1,743,873,545 bbls
Total Cumulative Through December 2009: 1,744 million bbls
Total wells drilled in North Dakota Through Dec 2009: 10,245

Oil discovered in 1951
Several boom/bust cycles since then (four, I believe)
The current "Bakken boom" would be the fifth cycle, I believe

So, after 60 years of drilling in North Dakota, estimates are that there are only 197 million barrels of conventional oil reserves left (and, of course, the last drops would always be the most difficult to get). This (197 million) represents 11% of the amount of oil produced in Williston Basin to date. Thus, unless conventional reserve estimates are increased, the conventional play is near its end, if I understand the data correctly. It took sixty years and almost 10,000 wells to produce this conventional oil. The 197 million remaining plus the 1,744 million produced so far from conventional wells, adds up to 1,941 million barrels of oil.

On the other hand, the unconventional reserves which lie entirely within the Bakken Pool (includes the Three Forks Sanish) is estimated to contain 3,645 million barrels of oil. That is a "mean." It is also based on a limited number of wells, and limited production from this pool as of 2008.

The Madison has accounted for 52% of all oil produced so far in the Williston Basin; all conventional.
In just three years, the Bakken has accounted for almost 7% of all oil produced so far in the Williston Basin.

That is the data.

First, second, and third derivative data can be derived from that.

Final Thoughts

I have opined that 2010 will be a watershed year for the Bakken: a) maximum amount of activity with over 100 rigs on site; b) fracking unimpeded by Federal regulations (EPA); c) FBIR catches up with rest of the basin this year; d) Halliburton fracking crews working 24/7; e) pipeline capacity matches production capability; f) better-than-average oil prices; g) economic recovery.

Assumptions (f) and (g) for continued better-than-average oil prices and an economic recovery are presently being challenged.

The oil spill in the gulf is a singular event which will have little long-term repercussions, but might positively affect oil industry in North Dakota in the short term (I am not convinced).


Data is from NDIC and USGS and has been previously linked and posted at this website.