The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Thursday, September 11, 2025

This Past Week Has Been An Incredibly Good-To-Great Week For Chip Companies -- For Intel, Not So Much -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49085INTEL.

I actually find this to be quite surprising.

From Tom's Hardware, one of the best Internet chip sites,

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Meanwhile, Micron Hits Record High

Rambling -- Talking To My Imaginary Friend -- Not Ready For Prime-Time -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49084ARCHIVES.

Boeing: on a day that the three major market indices hit all-time highs (needs to be fact-checked) Boeing fell $7.50 or 3.3% -- mostly likely due to this:

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said on Thursday that the planemaker is behind schedule on certifying the 777-9, its newest widebody jet.

The company expects to deliver the first 777X jet in 2026, six years later than anticipated when the program was launched in 2013.

A “mountain of work” remains to certify the plane, but no new technical problems have been identified.

But “even a minor schedule delay on the 777 program has a pretty big financial impact” for the company, which has already lost several billion dollars on the program.

Inflationary pressure across Boeing’s supply chain is affecting airplane pricing.

Microsoft: holy mackerel! MSFT popped $10 today, after-hours.

AI suggests: Anthropic partnership: On September 11, Yahoo Finance reported that Microsoft will use AI models from Anthropic—a company with funding from Amazon and Alphabet—to power Microsoft Office applications. The news suggests that Microsoft is diversifying its AI partnerships beyond its close ties with OpenAI, which is a positive sign for investors.

Comment: it's getting near-impossible for regulators to sort out what's a monopoly and what isn't. If one thought the oil companies had the market on obfuscation and shell games, the magnificent seven / great eight are raising that art form to a new level.

TILT. "Fast Money," CNBC, things I learned today or things that were mentioned in passing by the talking heads:

US economic data is no longer trusted / accurate, so folks can interpret the data any way they want;

much of the data is collected by incredibly antiquated methods that no longer make sense (if the methods ever made sense)
much of the data is collected by making "cold calls" to folks with land lines;

the panelists admit they no longer answer their phones

I get so many spam phone calls on a daily basis I have quit answering my phone; my phone remains on "mute" 24/7;
I schedule phone calls with those on my contact list via messaging
seriously; do you answer your cell phone calls any more?

where is all this money coming from: I posed this question to a Schwab executive and he had no answer; he had an answer but it was nonsensical;

all three equity indices surged to new highs (Dow; S&P 500; and, NASDAQ);
Taylor Swift tickets at over $1,000 / ticket still sell out; and,
money held in money market funds remains at all-time highs and the MMFs continue to hit new highs

Something to watch: the Ellison father-son duo.

Paramount Skydance buying all of Warner Bros Discovery; PS run by David Ellison;
richest or second-richest man in the world, David's father Larry Ellison (Oracle)
already, I'm sure, dad and son are talking.

When Skydance acquired Paramount, the Ellison family and their partners bought control of the media giant, gaining a vast library of content across film and television, including Paramount Pictures, CBS, MTV, and Nickelodeon, in exchange for providing capital to strengthen the combined company's finances and technology infrastructure.

The deal integrated Skydance's production expertise and technological capabilities with Paramount's global distribution and creative assets, forming a new entity that is publicly traded under the "PSKY" ticker on the Nasdaq.

If I recall correctly, a lot of folks, including Warren Buffett, felt Paramount was incredibly undervalued;
Hulu - Disney - ESPN - Amazon Prime - MGM has an incredible library to which I have access and yet there is a lot of stuff on Paramount I can't get without subscribing.

Disney: is watching closely. Media -- whether it's legacy libraries or new content, whether it's linear television or streaming -- all media is looking really good right now. Something completely unexpected. One word: sports.

Sports: if one is having trouble understanding this "media" mania, maybe one needs to look at the value of professional sports teams, particularly the value of NFL teams. But there's more: see lacrosse below and teh WNBA when Caitlin is playing.

YouTube videos: driving folks to Amazon Prime, YouTube TV, Paramount, MGM, etc.

Exhibit A: last night I watched a 30-minute document on the "The Best Cinematography I've Ever Seen." Link to the video here. Link to the backstory here. In that documentary there were several movies I had not seen; I now want to watch them. Many of them are on Paramount -- I have the choice: subscribe to Paramount, or rent / but the movie via Amazon.

Premier Lacrosse League: apparently a big big announcement today; I haven't found the announcement yet; CEO opening line: "... if you bring in the Ellisons ..." -- that says it all. See note above regarding the value of sports teams and Paramount. Premier Lacrosse League, wiki. Posted five hours ago.

RMDs: so, anyway, were you able to answer the question I asked above -- where is all this money coming from?

Click on this tag: wealth transfer. My wife has already taken her RMD for this year; she's now watching her IRA surging -- gaining way more than she ever imagined and she's itching to make another withdrawal. It takes all I can do to have her wait to January 1, 2026, to take her 2026 RMD. I may or may not win that battle. LOL. But that's where a lot of this money is coming from.

Naysayers will say my argument is circular; I don't reply. The naysayers simply don't get it.

All the above written during "Fast Money." Now a few minutes of Cramer before I take Sophia to soccer -- Jim Cramer's opening thesis was exactly correct. It will be interesting to watch his thesis play out. His bottom line: the bears have not participated in this rally and if things don't turn around for them, they're going to have a miserable fourth quarter and an even more miserable full year report. Exhibit A: BRK.

The next big thing -- many, many story lines:

A "crypto card Visa" is a type of payment card, typically a prepaid debit or credit card, offered by cryptocurrency platforms like Crypto.com and Coinbase, that allows users to spend their cryptocurrencies at Visa-accepting merchants. The card automatically converts your crypto holdings into fiat currency at the point of sale, enabling seamless transactions at millions of locations worldwide, similar to a traditional Visa card, but with the added benefit of earning crypto-related rewards.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
Longer version here.

End-Of-Day Report -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49083B.

Market records:

equities surge;

Dow closes above 46,000 for first time ever; Dow gains 617 points today, a 1.36% rise.
NASDAQ closes above 22,000 for first time ever; gains 157 points today.
S&P 500 closes at all-time high also. Needs to be fact-checked. Adds 55 points.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $62.30.

Active rigs: 34.

Six new permits, #42297 - #42302, inclusive:

Operators: KODA Resources (4); Devon Energy; BR
Fields: Daneville (Divide County); Painted Woods (Williams County); and, Elidah oil field (McKenzie County)
Comments:

KODA Resources has permits for four Bock wells, NENW 21-161-102,

to be sited 545 FNL and 1769 / 1874 FWL;

Devon Energy has a permit for an Owan Trust South well, NWNW 32-154-103,

to be sited 1008 FNL and 349 FWL;

BR has a permit for a Sandie well, SESW 21-151-97,

to be sited 527 FSL and 2152 FWL.

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

40517, 1,029, BR, Keene 14-36 MBW-ULW, Dunn County;

Rate Cuts -- A Historical Look -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49082FED.

Long post.

Bottom line: looking at the history of the Fed over the past ten years, the tea leaves suggest the Fed will only make 25-basis point cuts through the end of the year, perhaps, two; most likely, three; and, very unlikely, four 25-basis point cuts through the end of the calendar year (2025).

On a separate note: tea leaves suggest --

no recession coming;
no stagflation coming.
investors will be happy with inflation running around 3% (PPI and PCE, the latter the Fed's preferred measure).

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TL:DR

ChatGPT prompt:

In the past ten (10) years, how many times has “the Fed” made a 50-basis point rate cut in a single meeting? Has the Fed ever made two consecutive 50-basis point cuts.

ChatGPT reply:

In the Past 10 Years (2015–2025): How many times has the Federal Reserve made a 50-basis point (0.50%) rate cut in a single meeting?

Twice — and both occurred in 2020, during the COVID-19 crisis:

March 3, 2020 (Emergency Cut):

Cut: 50 basis points
Fed Funds Target Range went from 1.50–1.75% ➝ 1.
This was an emergency inter-meeting cut — rare outside scheduled FOMC meetings.

March 15, 2020 (Emergency Cut)

Cut: 100 basis points (1.00%)
Fed Funds Target went from 1.00–1.25% ➝ 0.00–0.25%
Also an emergency cut — one of the most aggressive in Fed history.

So while there were larger cuts (like 100 bps), the 50 bps cut specifically happened once during that sequence — March 3, 2020 — and was quickly followed by an even larger one.

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Question: Has the Fed Ever Made Two Consecutive 50-basis Point Cuts?

Answer: No, not in the past 10 years.

The Fed has made multiple cuts in sequence, especially in 2001, 2007–2008, and 2020.
But two back-to-back 50 bps cuts? That has not occurred. In 2020, we saw a 50 bps cut, followed by a 100 bps cut, not another 50.

Historical Note:

The Fed has made back-to-back large cuts (including 50 bps or more) during financial crises:

2001 (dot-com bust): Several 50 bps cuts, but not necessarily two consecutively at 50.
2008 (GFC): Cuts of 50–75–100 bps occurred, but often spaced by other sizes or interspersed.

Summary

Question --- Answer

Two questions:

Question: how many 50-bps cuts in the past ten years: one -- March 3, 2020. An emergency cut.
Question: any consecutive 50-bps cuts? no -- never two in a row.

however, there was one time whe a 50-basis point cut was followed by a 100-basis point cut, but that was also an emergency cut during the Covid-19 lockdown.

How Does The New Apple N1 Chip Affect Broadcom? Short Answer: Almost Not At All -- Don't Take That Out Of Context -- September 11, 2025

Locator: 49081CHIPS.

Lessons learned:

one can ask ChatGPT anything;
if you are not using ChatGPT (or a similar chatbot), you are flying blind.

Apple Silicon is tracked here. Chips are tracked here.

Apple suppliers: this schematic has been posted many, many times.

The schematic for the iPhone 17 series is not yet available, but ChatGPT will send me that schematic as soon as it becomes available.

I asked ChatGPT what specific Broadcom chip will be replaced by the new Apple Silicon N1 chip.

The answer: the Broadcom Wi-Fi + Bluetooth chip.

Unknown is what other Broadcom components are "at risk." ChatGPT provided a list of components that could be at risk but none seem(ed) particularly remarkable and unlikely to be a major issue one way or the other. I could be wrong.

ChatGPT also provided:

an estimate of what Apple pays for each Broadcom chip (wi-fi + Bluetooth): and,
what Apple pays Broadcom "all in" each year.

Phasing out the Broadcom wi-fi + Bluetooth chip was NOT cost driven. Don't take that out of context. It was driven by:

Apple culture;
supply chain control;
software integration, efficiency, and power savings.

In fact, one might argue, throw in "privacy" issues, and these might be the big four issues that guides Tim Cook's decisions day in and day out.