Locator: 48724TARIFFS.
Tariffs setting record collections for US Treasury. Link here. Liz Ann Sonders.
Costco: surges. Up 2.875; up $28.96; trading at $1,037.70. Still sells their hot dog combo for $1.50. Hasn't changed the price in decades. Decades. Later: up 3.75%; up $37.55; trading at $1,046.32.
Locator: 48723RR&R.
Quick! What percent of students at Columbia University -- yes, that Columbia University -- come from China? Link here to The Wall Street Journal. I'll make it easy. Multiple choice. Best answer:
___ 0%
___ 10%
___ 50%
___ 100%
Same question, same choices. Cornell.
Same question, different choices. Harvard.
___ 10%
___ 20%
___ 30%
___ 40%
Adios, ABA: Trump administration / DOJ will no longer "comply" with ABA ratings. Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/justice-department-tells-american-bar-association-no-longer-comply-ratings-judicial-nominees.
Colorado: teen killer and family being deported. Colorado let her walk; ICE says, "not so fast." Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/us/teen-illegal-immigrant-who-killed-woman-colorado-crash-gets-probation-arrested-ice-family.
Biden and The WSJ, flashback, link here. "Morning Joe" scoffed at this article.
EVs charging: more confusing than ever. Link here.
Still takes forever. Fast charging is considered 24 minutes. Wow. Twenty-four minutes. That's a half hour of standing around. Or eating service station sushi. But, in general, it still takes 45 minutes for a full charge.
Spelling Bee champion: from Texas. Plano, TX, just up the road from our humble abode. Link here.
David Brooks: never served in the military but still thinks he knows what drives warriors. Such chutzpah. Link here to The New York Times.
Lived hard, played hard. Link here to The New York Times. I hope to spend some time on this one later.
Other obituaries and associated non-obituary stories:
NEPA: this story is so big I may post it every day for a week. One link here.
Racial quotas: another huge win for Trump. Link her to The WSJ.
Palantir: Trump will clean up the Signal mess. Link here to The New York Times. Last month: link to The New York Times.
Trump: Over and over and over: examples of Trump not messing around. Addresses problems immediately. Before the press multiple times per day. Biden: "We're monitoring the situation." Appears before the press multiple times each decade.
Locator: 48722B.
Costco: surges. Up 2.875; up $28.96; trading at $1,037.70. Still sells their hot dog combo for $1.50. Hasn't changed the price in decades. Decades. Later: up 3.75%; up $37.55; trading at $1,046.32.
Largest company by market cap: MSFT just surpassed Nvidia this morning. It was Nvidia yesterday. A "3.4-handle"? Just checked: $3.41 vs $3.36. Trillion. P/E: 44 vs 35. Remember when "Fast Money" panel said Nvidia (NVDA) couldn't "grow into their P/E"? Wow.
Trump tween this morning: China violated trade agreement. Stocks fall. Another opportunity for traders, investors,
Netflix: new target -- $1,350. Wow.
Whoo-hoo! All of a sudden two basins are back in the news -- the Utica and the Uinta.
US military spending: I'm not sure this guy knows what he's talking about. Link here to The New York Times. The best example: amphibious landing craft. LOL.
Tariffs setting record collections for US Treasury. Link here. Liz Ann Sonders.
The Times and Amazon ink a marketing deal. Link here to The New York Times.
Palantir: Trump will clean up the Signal mess. Link here to The New York Times. Last month: link to The New York Times.
Trump: Over and over and over: examples of Trump not messing around. Addresses problems immediately. Before the press multiple times per day. Biden: "We're monitoring the situation." Appears before the press multiple times each decade.
Monthly crude oil field production data: scheduled to be released today. Link here.
BRK-B: month-to-date -- down almost 5.55.
********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $60.08.
New wells:
RBN Energy: the short- and long-term outlooks for Uinta waxy crude production. Archived.
We’ve discussed the qualities of the Uinta Basin’s unusual waxy crude, the challenges inherent in moving it to market, and the use of machine-learning AI to optimize its extraction from two key geologic layers or “benches” deep below the rugged hills of northeastern Utah. Now, in today’s RBN blog, it’s finally time to reveal what all this tells us regarding the prospects for continued Uinta production growth; the need for new takeaway capacity, blending and refining infrastructure to handle it; and — very important — the estimated duration of economically recoverable waxy crude under various price scenarios.
This is the third blog in our series on how artificial intelligence (AI) is being used to assess and optimize the development potential of the Uinta Basin, which is now the fastest-growing crude-oil-focused production area in the U.S. on a percentage basis. In Part 1, we discussed the two flavors of Uinta waxy crude (black wax and yellow wax); their positive attributes (great for making high-value lubricants, low levels of sulfur and other impurities, and desirable yields of gasoil, kerosene, naphtha and other essential refined products); and initial production (IP) rates that match — and in some cases exceed — those in the best parts of the Permian.
We also described the challenges of storing and transporting waxy crude, the fast rise in Uinta production (now averaging more than 170 Mb/d), the demand from distant refineries and blenders, and the strain being put on existing midstream and downstream infrastructure. That’s all spurred talk of expansion projects, but E&Ps, rail terminal developers, refiners and blenders are wary of making big up-front investments without having a clear understanding of the Uinta’s long-term prospects and, with that, a high degree of confidence that the basin will remain economically productive long enough for their investments to pay off.
In Part 2, we examined the AI-based analytics our friends at Novi Labs use to (1) understand the individual contributions of a wide range of geologic and operational variables to production levels in the Uinta’s two most extensively drilled benches (Uteland Butte and Castle Peak), (2) employ that understanding to predict the performance of future wells in the two benches, and (3) forecast the volumes of waxy crude that could ultimately be extracted from these benches at various price points. Put simply — well, as simply as we can — Novi Labs’ machine-learning approach begins by gathering and incorporating a broad range of well-specific inputs (geologic, operational and spatial) on hundreds of drilled wells from public and proprietary sources. Novi then leverages the algorithms in the models it developed for each of the two benches, using reams of available data to gain a much deeper understanding of the relationships among and between these many variables and their impact on production outcomes.
In essence, machine learning integrates the wide range of data collected to recognize patterns and identify the primary drivers of well performance. It does this through the development and use of “Shapley values,” a game-theory concept that quantifies the contribution of individual input categories — more on that in a moment — to production from a given well compared to the average of the wells in the area. Machine learning then enables operators to assess how changing specific variables (such as drilling in a higher-pressure area, tightening well spacing, or increasing proppant intensity) would affect production outcomes in wells yet to be drilled. It also provides operators with guidance on how best to lay out, space, and sequence the development of the benches.
Today, we’ll build on the discussion about machine learning and Shapley values, compare the Uinta’s forecast productivity per well to the Permian and Bakken, and look at how much crude the wells in the Uinta’s key benches are likely to produce over time at various price points.
Novi Labs selected about 20 data points or variables (out of a broad set available to it) on hundreds of drilled wells in the Uteland Butte and Castle Peak benches that meet its criteria (at least 90 days of production and values for proppant, completion fluid and lateral length). The geologic data includes things like porosity, total organic carbon (TOC), lithology (the physical and chemical characteristics of the rock) and pressure, plus depth, structural position within the basin and proximity to faults. The operational data, in turn, includes factors such as proppant intensity, fluid volume per foot, stage spacing, lateral length, and the precise placement of the lateral within the bench.
Impact of Proppant Intensity on Uteland Butte Production
Figure 1. Impact of Proppant Intensity on Uteland Butte Production. Source: Novi Labs
Locator: 48720EOG.
$8,300 / net acre.
Transaction HighlightsAccretive financial metrics – The transaction is immediately accretive to EOG's net asset value as well as all per-share financial metrics. Specifically, the acquisition is accretive on an annualized basis to 2025 EBITDA by 10%, and cash flow from operations and free cash flow by 9%.
Immediate returns-enhancing benefits: significantly expands EOG's contiguous liquids-rich acreage, adds premium-priced gas exposure, and increases working interest – The acquisition expands EOG's core acreage in the volatile oil window, which averages 65% liquids production, by 235,000 net acres for a combined contiguous position of 485,000 net acres. In the natural gas window, the acquisition adds 330,000 net acres along with existing natural gas production with firm transportation exposed to premium end markets. In the northern acreage, where the company has delivered outstanding well results, EOG increases its existing average working interest by more than 20%.
Operational expertise and increased scale drive meaningful synergies – EOG expects to generate more than $150 million of synergies in the first year driven by lower capital, operating, and debt financing costs.
Supports return of capital to shareholders with 5% dividend increase, while maintaining industry leading balance sheet – The acquisition's accretion to free cash flow contributes to EOG's commitment to return cash to shareholders. The Board of Directors today declared a dividend of $1.02 per share on EOG's common stock. The dividend will be payableOctober 31, 2025 , to stockholders of record as ofOctober 17, 2025 . The indicated annual rate is$4.08 . EOG remains committed to a strong balance sheet and expects the acquisition will have no material impact on its long-term target of less than one times total debt-to-EBITDA ratio at bottom cycle prices of$45 WTI oil.
