Wednesday, September 25, 2024

For The Archives, Part 2 -- Forty Percent Of US Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free -- September 25, 2024

Locator: 48399ARCHIVES.

Land of the free: percent of home-owners who are mortgage-free is at an all-time high. One wouldn't know it watching CNBC all day long. Link here.


Simply pathetic. Link here. The challenge? Deep pockets. Google owns YouTube. Amazon owns Prime. Disney. Not so much.

For The Archives, Part 1 -- September 25, 2024

Locator: 48398ARCHIVES.

SPLIT! Are you kidding me? Never saw this on my bingo card. And why is my best source of news for "stuff" like this only on Reddit? Link here. 

Problem: lots of misinformation on Reddit, but can easily be fact-checked. Schwab splitting many / all of its ETFs? But the headline right now: SCHD -- 3:1 split. Effective October 10, 2024. Shouldn't mean a thing for (most) investors? Lots of discussion about buying fractional shares of ETFs. All I can say is this: if you can't afford to buy a single share of $25/share ETF maybe ... link here.

Vaccinated: for the record, received my annual Covid-19 and my annual "flu" shot today.

Indicted: NYC Mayor Eric Adams indicted on federal charge.

Depressed? Consumer confidence fell last month -- CNBC. Whatever happened to Prozac nation? ".... the memoir's "self-pitying passages make the reader want to shake the author, and remind her that there are far worse fates than growing up during the '70s in New York and going to Harvard."

Confused:

Streamed! Spend some time on this graphic. Speaks volumes. Look at the small piece that Disney has. Lots of opportunity for growth. I expect this chart to look a lot different ten years from now. 


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The Book Page

Colossus: Bletchley Park's Greatest Secret, Paul Gannon, c. 2006.

I just finished  Geniuses At War: Bletchley Park, Colossus, and the Dawn of the Digital Age, David A. Price, c. 2021. David A Price recommended Colossus. 

Already started reading. Yes, if this is your genre, this book needs to be on your bookshelf.

Too detailed? Yes, but that's what I wanted.

CLR With Four New Permits In West Capa -- September 25, 2024

Locator: 48397B.

Gasoline demand: link here. Unremarkable.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.69.

Active rigs: 34.

Six new permits, #41175 - #41180, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR, Koda Resources
  • Fields: West Capa (Williams County); Fertile Valley (Divide County)
  • Comments:
    • Koda Resources has permits for two Amber wells, SESW 14-160-013, 
      • both to be sited 700 FWL with one 2301 FWL and the other 2331 FWL
    • CLR adds permits for four more West Capa wells, two Kenneth and two Helen wells, NWSE 8-154-96; 
      • these wells will be sited in 8-154-96, 1755 FSL and at 1821 FEL; 1789 FEL; 1575 FEL; and, 1725 FEL, a pad that will be close to the existing and producing #20098, XTO, John 33X-8 well; these wells will be sited in the section north of the section in which CLR was awarded ten (?) more permits in the past two days.

One permit canceled:

  • 40882, CLR, Berlain 7-30HSL, McKenzie County;

OpenAI -- Valued At $150 Billion? September 25, 2024

Locator: 48396AI.


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Auto Stocks In Reverse
"Fast Money" -- CNBC

After downgrade earlier this morning:

  • Rivian: down 7%
  • GM: down 5%
  • F: down 4%, despite "shockingly" low price; P/E -- "Fast Money" / CNBC

Tesla: could report its best quarter ever. China.

This is truly amazing.

One can really make a good trade by playing the game: "Would you rather....?

  • would you rather invest in AI or auto?
  • would you rather invest in F or GM?
  • would you rather invest in Tesla or Rivian?

Most interesting of the four? Rivian. Rivian has been a darling of Wall Street. I had recently considered buying a small amount of Rivian once a week and building a huge position over time. Sophia talked me out of it. I have no position in Rivian. 

"Fast Money" talk shifts to hybrids. Fake EVs.

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China's Stimulus

At one time, it was predicted that China's economy would overtake that of the US.

It didn't, of course, but that doesn't meant China doesn't still have a huge economy. We've been through this before. 

China will now stimulate its economy. It has no choice. We talked about this years ago.

And amazingly, this is getting less attention on CNBC than what the Fed will do next.

How bad is it? Xi has purged his entire economic team. One would assume the next economic team doesn't want to face the same fate.

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Disclaimer 
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia and large data centers.

Micron Earnings Are Out -- September 25, 2024

Locator: 48395MU.

Despite what some folks tell us, chips are NOT commodities. 

TV crawler at 3:57 p.m. CDT, after earnings released: shares up $14.33. 



Link here.

  • Micron Technology forecast first-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates, betting on strong demand for its high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips used by the AI industry, sending the company’s shares up 10% after the bell. 
  • The company is one of the only three providers of HBM chips along with South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung, which has allowed the U.S. firm to cash in on demand for semiconductors that help power generative AI technology. 
  • The company forecast revenue of $8.70 billion, plus or minus $200 million, for the first quarter, compared with estimates of $8.28 billion. 
  • Micron’s results typically set the tone for the chip sector as it reports ahead of peers and serves a broad client base spanning the PC, data center and smartphone industries. 
  • The company said in June its HBM chips were sold out for the 2024 and 2025 calendar years.
  • The chips are used in the AI processors designed by Wall Street darling Nvidia. 
  • Micron expects adjusted gross margin for the first quarter to be 39.5%, plus or minus 1%. Analysts had expected an adjusted gross margin of 37.7%. 
  • For the fourth quarter, the company’s revenue jumped 93% to $7.75 billion.

The "Fast Money" folks are still negative on Micron. But then they've been on the wrong side of Apple also over the years. Must "have grown up" on Intel.

Link here.