3Q23 GDPNow Estimate Unchanged At 5.6 — September 7, 2023

Link here: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.

Most recent 3Q23 estimate, yesterday, September 6, 2023, unchanged from one week earlier: 5.6.

“That” recession is going to have to wait another quarter, it appears.

I could be wrong, but “5.6” seems to be among the best numbers I’ve seen in 70 years.

If “5.6” holds, America may have the fastest economic growth in the world.

Gasoline Demand -- September 7, 2023

Locator: 45564B. 

I requested an Altima for our cross-country trip last weekend. I was not happy when they "gave" me a Toyota 4Runner:

The Honda Civic:

The Nissan Altima:

The Toyota 4Runner:

So, on the highway:

• the Civic: 40
• the Altima: 36
• the 4Runner: 19
  

Not happy.

We drove the 4Runner hard. It was a great road car, but we averaged 22 mpg. My Honda Civic would have gotten 36 mpg without a problem. 

36 vs 22.

If gasoline in the 4Runner cost me $600 on the road trip, it would have been $367 in the Altima, even less in the Honda Civic. In the big scheme of things, $600 vs $400 was no big deal, but still ...

So, what did I see on our 3500-mile-five-day-round-trip-Dallas-to-Philadelphia-and-back?

• almost no Civics
• the highways were filled with 4Runners.

When Americans travel cross-country, what do they drive? Civics or 4Runners?

Answer: 4Runners.

4Runners: 19. Civics: 40.

All of that, to re-post this:

Gasoline demand, link here:

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Norway

The Norway experience has been the same. Norway has the highest penetration of EVs in the world (fact-check me on that) and yet their gasoline demand is at all-time highs.

Apologists for EVs say that it takes awhile (apparently, ten years or more) for all those yearly EV sales to start to make a difference. It appears it will take a long, long time for EV penetration to make a diffference. 

If Norway has led the western world in EV penetration and gasoline demand is still increasing, it's going to take a long, long time to see any impact in the US when it comes to EV penetration and gasoline demand. 

I could write at length about that but our road trip to Philadelphia and back to Dallas explains it all. Americans would rather drive in road comfort in a 19-mpg 4Runner rather than be cramped in a 40-mph Honda Civic. 

Best-selling vehicle in the US? A pickup truck.

In addition, vehicle registrations: 

Right now, WFH (work-from-home) for white collar is a "thing." That's not going to change any time soon.

Whatever small change EVs may make with regard to gasoline demand, these small changes will be more than offset by what Americans actually drive.

The New Chord Energy Osprey Wells -- September 7, 2023

Locator: 45563B. 

This might get a few Williston residents excited.

A reader writes to tell me he/she received division orders for three Chord Energy wells earlier in September, 2023, or late August, 2023:

• 39322, Osprey 5401 44-23 4B
• 39321, Osprey 5401 44-23 3B
• 39281, Osprey 5401 43-23 2B

 

Gasoline Demand -- Increased 7% Year / Year -- September 7, 2023

Locator: 45562GASOLINE. 

Gasoline demand, link here:

What Happened To All That Goodwill? September 7, 2023

Locator: 45561POLITICS.  

News item: NYC mayor is having challenges with 60 immigrants brought up from Texas maybe once or twice a month. 

• Meanwhile, El Paso, TX, upwards of 3,000 "encounters" daily.
  

Population:

• NYC metropolitan area: 20,110,000
• "recent" immigrant population: 110,000
• out of every 200 "New Yorkers" -- 1 is a "recent" immigrant
• overall, as a percent: 0.5%
• a busload of 60: 0.0000029 = 0.000298% -- from Texas, maybe once a month?
  
• one planeload of passengers from Europe: 300
  
• my hunch: the public unions are very concerned; immigrants are taking their jobs

Flights from Europe into NYC on a daily basis:

Yesterday: the photo-op --

Today, the headlines:

NYC: sanctuary city -- 

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Ice Cream

Ice cream from Portland, OR, down here in Bluebell Ice Cream country.