Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Four Stories On Tap -- Running Out Of Blogging Time -- More Later -- December 14, 2022

Links only:

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The Stories

Uranium, Clintons:

  • I'm only going to add one link; link here;
  • readers that know, know:
  • nothing more needs to be said
  • posted.

Crude oil supply adjustment: 

  • "Focus on Fracking" noted this months (years?) ago; it's only getting "worse" -- raising questions about the accuuracy of the weekly EIA petroleum report.

China healthcare system floudering / foundering due to Covid-19?

  • I think folks forget why "we" originally shut down the economy

Covid variants:


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The Atlantic Story On Covid

The Atlantic story was written before Evusheld was taken off the market. Today, CNBC reported that the FDA took Evushel (Eli Lilly) off the market leaving only one in this sector: bebteloovimab (AstraZeneca).

For the first couple of years of the coronavirus pandemic, the crisis was marked by a succession of variants that pummeled us one at a time.
The original virus rapidly gave way to D614G, before ceding the stage to Alpha, Delta, Omicron, and then Omicron’s many offshoots.
But as our next COVID winter looms, it seems that SARS-CoV-2 may be swapping its lead-antagonist approach for an ensemble cast: Several subvariants are now vying for top billing.
In the United States, BA.5—dominant since the end of spring—is slowly yielding to a slew of its siblings, among them BA.4.6, BF.7, BQ.1, and BQ.1.1; another subvariant, XBB, threatens to steal the spotlight from overseas.
Whether all of these will divvy up infections in the next few months, or whether they’ll be pushed aside by something new, is still anyone’s guess. Either way, the forecast looks a little grim.
None of the new variants will completely circumvent the full set of immune defenses that human bodies, schooled by vaccines or past infections, can launch. Yet all of them seem pretty good at dodging a hefty subset of our existing antibodies.For anyone who gets infected, such evasions could make the difference between asymptomatic and feeling pretty terrible. And for the subset of people who become sick enough to need clinical care, the consequences could get even worse.
Some of our best COVID treatments are made from single antibodies tailored to the virus, which may simply cease to work as SARS-CoV-2 switches up its form.
Past variants have already knocked out several such concoctions—among them, REGEN-COV, sotrovimab, and bamlanivimab/etesevimab—from the U.S. arsenal.
The only two left are bebtelovimab, a treatment for people who have already been infected, and Evusheld, a crucial supplement to vaccination for those who are moderately or severely immunocompromised; both are still deployed in hospitals countrywide.
But should another swarm of variants take over, these two lone antibody therapies could also be obsolete within months, if not weeks.
“It seems like the writing is on the wall,” says Erin McCreary, an infectious-disease pharmacist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center. “I live constantly low-key worried that I’m not going to have an active therapy for my patients, and I won’t be able to help them.”
All of this bodes poorly for this winter and beyond. In the near term, millions of immunocompromised people could be left without viable options either to keep SARS-CoV-2 at bay or to temper its blaze once an infection begins to burn. And that loss would set a troubling precedent for seasons to come. The business end of the virus “is now adapting so rapidly that I don’t know how it’s going to be possible for monoclonals to keep up,” says Jeanne Marrazzo, an infectious-disease physician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Experts may need to revamp the strategies they use to bring new therapies to market—or find themselves, once again, in a serious bind.
“I worry,” Marrazzo told me, “that we’re on a razor’s edge.”

GM: Three New Battery Plants Planned -- $2.5 Billion -- Deccember 14, 2022

This may be old news. I may have blogged about it before. I forget.

From WXYZ, Detroit ABC, GM joint venture gets $3.5 billion load to build three battery plants, including one in Michigan. 

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Gasoline Demand

Link here.

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California -- Electricity Demand .... And Cost

Link here.

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GDPNow

Link here.

Verizon Teams Up With Netflix in Push to Become Streaming Middleman -- WSJ -- December 14, 2022

Streaming wars.

Add another one to the mix: Verizon teams up with Netflix in push to become a streaming middleman.

Other non-streaming companies trying to attract new subscribers through streaming marketplaces:

  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • YouTube

If one were to list these four and ask for the outlier, I would think Amazon would be seen as the outlier:

  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • YouTube
  • Verizon

This leads to the next question: what other "subscription" businesses with strong on-line presence might add streaming? Here is a short list:

  • Walmart
  • Target
  • Costco
  • Yahoo
  • Google (yes, I know)
  • Twitter

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Meghan And Harry

Not in a million years would I have guessed this. Link here.

WTI Breaches $77, Two New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed; Seven DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 14, 2022

Breathlessly reporting: Guyana-Suriname Basin could be the world's last great offshore oil boom.

  • this basin is tracked here;
    • discovered by ExxonMobil
    • 11 billion bbls in the Stabroek Block offshore (recently revised upward), recoverable
      • one of as many as 30 blocks
    • all blocks: ~ 20 billion bbls
  • to put in perspective:
    • 10 years x 1 million bopd x 365 days / year = 4 billion bbls (rounded up) --Bakken
    • 10 years x 5 million bopd x 365 days / year = 20 billion bbls (rounded up) -- Permian

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

JPow / Fed: raised the "prime rate, 50 basis points, now 4.25 to 4.50%, prime rate.

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $77.54.

Natural gas: $6.564.

Two new permits, #39491 - #39492, inclusive:

  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Squires (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Kraken has permits for a Ricky-Lee well and a Anseth well, NWNW 20-155-103,
      • one to be sitd 340 FNL and 375 FWL; and, 
      • the other, 340 FNL and 408 FWL

Ten peermits reneweed:

  • Petroshale (5): all Tahu permits; all in McKenzie County
  • Hunt (4): one Nichols permit and thee Palermo permits, all in Mountrail County;
  • Slawson: a Ripper Federal permit in Mountrail County

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38239, 3,625, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-11HLW,
  • 38244, 2,128, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-3H,
  • 38245, 4,611, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-4H,
  • 38246, 2,913, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-14H,
  • 38248, 2,291, Ovintiv, Kramer 150-97-18-19-15H,
  • 36513, 40 (no typo), Crescent Point, CPEUSC Austin 4-17-20-158N-99W-MBH,
  • 36519, 176 (no typo), Crescent Point, CPEUSC Austin 7-17-20-158N-99W-MBH-LL;

JPow: Here We Go -- December 14, 2022

Here it is: raised 50 bp.

  • 4.25 - 4.50%.

Outlook: hawkish.

  • will go above 5%
  • that's higher than previously telegraphed
  • and, higher for longer

Dow:

  • just prior to the announcement: Dow was up 80 points
  • now: trending down; flat to very, very slightly positive
  • five minutes later: Dow goes negative

WTI:

  • up 2.85%
  • up $2.15
  • trading at: $77.54