Machinery Is First Victim Of Sanctions -- Kamil Galeev -- March 26, 2022

Link here. Loss of machinery affects foreign components on all levels from microchips to bearings. Thus, sanctions are destroying:

• military industry;
• transport and communications lines
• production of consumer goods

***************************
Bad Data

Antarctic: heat wave!

Apparently it's only "bad data" when it doesn't fit one's narrative.

Link here.

A Vietnam Analogy — March 26, 2022

Updates

April 12, 2022: Putin's War of Attrition. 

Original Post 

My 40,000th posted blog. 

• Lack of support back home.

• Body counts.

• Asymmetrical warfare.
  

• Financial drain.

• Global pariah.

• Unable to win on the battlefield.

Nope, not the Ukraine. Vietnam. 1969.

Observations.

• First order observations. 

• like the North Vietnamese, the Ukrainians have sanctuaries. The biggest sanctuary, of course, is Poland.
• like the North Vietnamese who had Chinese support, the Ukrainians have huge US, NATO, and to a lesser extent, EU support. The support the Ukrainians receive is several magnitudes greater than what the North Vietnamese received from China:
• asymmetrical warfare and technology 
• the enlisted fighting soldier
• Russians never planned for a war that would take more than six weeks
  

• Second order:

• Poland as a sanctuary
• Ukrainians cannot be surrounded and crushed
• guerilla warfare can last for years
• the Russian military can't possibly seal off the entire Polish-Ukraine border
• allies' ability to finance Ukraine dwarfs what Russia can provide
• military allies: this is not their first rodeo
• planning and preparation
• asymmetrical warfare and technology
• military weapons;
• reconnaissance and intelligence
• technical advisors;
• none better than the US
• US military with huge amount of experience
  
• the enlisted fighting soldier
• a war lasting longer than six weeks will be difficult for Russia to sustain
  

Third order: 

• Poland as a sanctuary
• military arms can be replenished ad infinitum
  
• a military ally that has planned and trained for a war with Russia for decades:
• the majority of our linguists speak Russian, Chinese, and Arabic
• "we've" been studying the European maps for decades
• asymmetrical warfare and technology
• Ukraine doesn't need huge batteries of anti-aircraft artillery used in WWII and Vietnam, they have drones, Stingers, and Javelins. And a never-ending supply.
• Russia planned to fight a conventional land war;
• 7,000 tanks look impressive but at the end of the day, in an asymmetrical war, they don't bring much to the fight except a lot of rubble (is there a B-52 analogy during the Vietnam War?)
• reconnaissance and intel
• talk about asymmetry
• I doubt the Russians are getting much actionable intel from the battlefield
• the Ukrainians are getting huge amounts of actionable intel from US reconnaissance a/c and drones that can stay airborne for 72 hours (GlobalHawk)
• technical advisors
• my understanding is that Ukrainians are receiving huge amount of training from "our" special forces
• snipers may be one of many untold stories before this is all over
• enlisted fighting soldier -- US advisors, second to none
• a war lasting longer than six weeks
• Russia does not have the logistics capability to feed their vast army for months
• they may be already running out of basic hygienic supplies for their soldiers
• rations will become an issue if the war lasts more than six weeks; that's why they're called rations.

Other observations:

• Russia may or may not use chemical or biological weapons, but these weapons won't win the war for Russia, and will irreparably damage whatever place Russia might have on the world stage going forward.
• With guerilla warfare, exactly what do you expect to gain with chemical or biological weapons;
• in addition, your own troops would be as vulnerable as the enemy.
  

• That's probably true for nuclear weapons, also.
  

Change Of Heart -- FERC Reverses "Green" Policies -- Will Now Approve Pipelines --- March 25, 2022

Updates

March 27, 2022:  a reader notes that this story is being reported absolutely nowhere --

Just checked the Earth Justice website and they still don’t mention the new policy 😎. 

Methinks they’ve been blindsided. 

Manchin is Chairman of Energy. I’m seeing a seismic shift. Bakken blinder disclaimer applies. 

Original Post

A reader suggested this two-word subject heading: FERC Greta. I wish I had thought of that.

Link here. Very confusing, I don't understand the changes yet, but it sounds good for now. I can't wait to hear the White House explanation why the Keystone XL is now not only necessary but environmentally safe. Rumors are they are going to rename the Keystone XL pipeline the Greta Turnberg Memorial Pipeline to expedite the approval process. 

But meanwhile, back to the linked story:

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has rolled back sweeping new policies for large natural gas projects, including a framework for assessing how pipelines and other facilities contribute to climate change, weeks after prominent lawmakers panned the changes.

In a decision issued unanimously at the commission’s monthly meeting yesterday, FERC will revert back to its long-standing method for reviewing natural gas pipeline applications — while opening changes announced in February to feedback rather than applying them.

The commission also signed off on three new natural gas pipelines, one of which will pump more natural gas into New York state in a project described by utilities as essential for reliable gas service. immediately.

Three words in close proximity that warm the cockles of my heart: pipelines ... pump .. immediately.

NCAA Basketball March Madness: St Peter's Peacocks Poked Purdue -- March 25, 2022

Final:

• #15 St Peter's Peacocks: 67
• #3 Purdue: 64

First time ever that a #15 team moves to Elite 8.  

Meanwhile, on another note: a full stadium, Kansas vs Providence, no one wearing masks, except one lone person on the floor -- one of the coaches? But one person in an entire stadium, standing room only for an NCAA tournament March Madness game, is wearing a mask. When will the madness end? The officials aren't even wearing masks.

Week 12: March 20, 2022 -- March 26, 2022

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president.
• The Oasis-Whiting merger, RBN Energy.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Ukraine-Russia war continues.

Top international energy story:

• Crude oil remains very volatile; WTI in a trading range, $110 - $115.
• Rebels increase their attacks on Saudi oil facilities. 
• Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal is down due to storms. 
• Japan scrambles to prevent blackout.
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Amazon cancels plans for Churchill, PA, fulfillment center after community displeasure;

Top national energy story:

• Administration has change of heart; FERC to approve pipelines
• US crude oil supply drops below 27 days; 
• GasBuddy and EIA must be measuring different things;
• Diesel debacle.
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Operators;

Operations:

• Lots of work left in the Bakken.
• DUCs, an update.
• Clearly, better wells in the Bakken are being reported.
  

Wells:

• Slawson's original Orca Federal well goes over 500K bbls crude oil;

Fracking:

• Natural gas: every single US LNG export terminal set a record in either of the two last months;
  

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

• America's richest energy billionaire.
• What's "oil doing"?
• A Vietnam analogy.
• Disney theme parks -- outrageously expensive?
• Warren Buffett killing it. 
  
• The energy transition is dead; and, here, globalization and capitalism. 
• Global warming: Antarctica is gaining more ice than it is losing.