Random Update Of Of Several Whiting Wells In The Sanish -- Activity? March 22, 2022

Whiting wells at this post have been updated.

The Hershey Company -- Market Action -- March 22, 2022

I can't find any news to support this interest in Hershey after-hours.

Recently:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493275-hershey-stock-too-far-too-fast-overvalued

 

Tea leaves: inelastic demand? Sort of like spices, huh? 

What about the six-month chart?

Slawson With Three New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 22, 2022

Agree completely: the BPM is getting the timeline mixed up. From Irina Slav:

West Texas Intermediate is currently trading above $100 per barrel. Many would argue that this price surge is a result of the war in Ukraine, and there is indeed a big war-related premium to all world oil benchmarks.

However, one thing many are currently forgetting as the war hogs headlines is that oil’s fundamentals were taking it on the way to $100 a lot earlier. [The Biden administration is promoting this timeline.]

Investment banks forecast oil above $100 months before the war began, and they were basing these forecasts on oil’s fundamentals, which included limited supply growth and strong demand rebound.

OPEC+ has been adamant it would not pump more than it agreed to under its output recovery plan, and Big Oil has been basically shrinking its core business to stay on the good side of shareholders apparently more concerned about emissions than returns. [Wrong: shareholders are more concerned about returns.]

$6 gasoline in Los Angeles. Link to Charles Kennedy.

• for the state: $5.86
• the state will probably provide rebate checks to offset high price of gasoline
• everyone will get a check: even those who don't drive and those who drive EVs

Flashback: it appears I can recycle my old posts -- simply cut, paste, and re-date. From April 28, 2011. Almost exactly one decade ago. WTI, that day, up $1.05 to $113.81.

Crude oil price / weekly inventories: completely disconnected. Headlines suggesting the price of crude oil is / was related to the weekly draw / build is entirely wrong, lazy, and irrelevant. As Perry Mason would say:

Objection, your Honor. Incompetent, irrelevant and immaterial, and improper headlining in that it takes up matters not part of the explanation.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$111.30	3/22/2022	03/22/2021	03/22/2020	03/22/2019	03/22/2018
Active Rigs	35	15	51	68	60

Here we go -- three new permits, #38842 - #38844, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments: 
• Slawson has permits for two Phatkat Federal wells and one Vixen Federal well, 
• all to be sited NENE 19-152-91; 
• to be sited 715 FNL and between 1035 FEL and 1109 FEL

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 31363, TA-->A-->2,062, Grayson Mill, Topaz 20-17 6H, Banks, no production data,
  
• 35498, loc/A-->854, Whiting, Cvancara 11-14TFH, Alger, no production data,
  

DUCS -- Update -- March 22, 2022

From a reader, thank you very much.

The Bakken: drilled, completed, and drilled but not completed (DUCs). Note:

• just before the pandemic lock down, January, 2020, the high of 843 DUCs;
• one year later, January, 2021, the number of wells drilled in one month, down to 20;
• DUCs: at a record low -- most recent data
• may not be entirely accurate, but close:
• wells completed in February, 2022: 75
• DUCs completed in February, 2022: 13
• total number of wells completed: 88
• percent of DUCs/total wells completed: 15%
  

Month / Year	Bakken
	Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	570
Jan-14	178	143	605
Jan-17	62	52	781
Jan-18	107	72	768
Jan-19	120	71	790
Jan-20	99	98	843
Jan-21	20	41	756
Feb-21	19	24	751
Mar-21	25	47	729
Apr-21	27	52	704
May-21	29	68	665
Jun-21	31	52	644
Jul-21	32	62	614
Aug-21	39	70	583
Sep-21	41	79	545
Oct-21	42	78	509
Nov-21	45	73	481
Dec-21	50	73	458
Jan-22	51	73	436
Feb-22	62	75	423

 The Permian: drilled, completed, and drilled but not completed (DUCs). Note:

• just before the pandemic lock down, January, 2020, the high of 3,413 DUCs;
• amazingly, drilling did not drop as fast in the Permian as it did in the Bakken;
• the drilling lows came in January, 2021
  
• DUCs: at a record low -- most recent data
• may not be entirely accurate, but close:
• wells completed in February, 2022: 429
• DUCs completed in February, 2022: 86
• total number of wells completed: 515
• percent of DUCs/total wells completed: 20%

Permian
Month / Year	Permian
	Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	663
Jan-14	582	590	655
Jan-17	352	259	1,280
Jan-18	486	403	2,073
Jan-19	584	486	2,925
Jan-20	449	460	3,413
Jan-21	188	367	2,827
Feb-21	212	262	2,777
Mar-21	235	442	2,570
Apr-21	251	416	2,405
May-21	260	385	2,280
Jun-21	265	368	2,177
Jul-21	271	393	2,055
Aug-21	280	400	1,935
Sep-21	291	390	1,836
Oct-21	304	402	1,738
Nov-21	311	405	1,644
Dec-21	327	406	1,565
Jan-22	333	416	1,482
Feb-22	343	429	1,396

Not all months are shown, so the highs/lows could have been in other months, but one gets the general idea. 

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The Oil Patch

Inflation Coming In At 7.9%. Now This. This Is What Really, Really Scares Jay Powell -- March 22, 2022

Gasoline prices surging.

The very same day this data was released was the day Jay Powell, "Fed chairman," implied the Fed would raise overnight rates more than expected, faster than expected.

I've maintained ever since beginning the blog, the best indicator of the US economy was gasoline demand. And by that metric, the US economy is on fire.

Compare gasoline / diesel demand in:

• Russia
• Europe
• Britain

This has to be terrorizing the Fed: US sees highest gasoline demand since at least 2017.

This is despite:

• massive EV penetration (needs to be fact-checked but that's what "everyone" says)
• CAFE standards that in some cases border on the absurd
• at least five oil-price shocks in recent history that supposedly resulted in demand destruction

Did we mention that gasoline prices are surging with $120 oil? 

Demand destruction? What demand destruction?

The bigger concern is supply destruction (see earlier post).

But I digress.

I'm sure I must be misinterpreting the headline story. 

Back to the things that put terror into the hearts of "Fed" members: US sees highest gasoline demand since at least 2017.

Greta's head is exploding.  

More and more, the story is not "demand destruction," but "supply destruction."

Link to Tsvetana Paraskova.

• U.S. gasoline demand on Sunday jumped by 12.6 percent compared to the previous Sunday.
• U.S. gasoline prices fell slightly last week from the highs on March 11. 

Not one percent or two percent or even five percent or ten percent, but almost 13 percent. 

Trivia: the number page on the blog when one searches "demand destruction" was posted Saturday, April 23, 2011. 

From wikipedia:

Demand destruction is an economic term used to describe a permanent downward shift in the demand curve in the direction of lower demand of a commodity such as energy products, induced by a prolonged period of high prices or constrained supply.

So, if US sees highest gasoline demand since at least 2017, does that change all those arguments about "demand destruction"? 

Is this sort of like Hubbert's "peak oil theory" which has been clearly disproved?

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Finally, Summer