Thursday, January 13, 2022

Prognostications -- January 13, 2022

Today: EIA forecasts crude oil prices will fall in 2022 and 2023. 

Yesterday:

For all that talk of $100-oil and shortage of oil this summer, I just don't see it. Most credible analysts suggest the price of oil is currently at its peak and will gradually drop back to the $70 - $80 range in the near term, and back to $70 - $75 in the longer term (2023).

Link to Irina Slav, by this summer, the US will producing almost 2 million bopd more than needed:

From the EIA:

From an earlier post: 

*****************************
Take On Me

Take On Me, A-Ha

Rig Counts Flat -- January 13, 2022

Link here.

The thing is this: rigs counts are not increasing despite $80-WTI, and, the number of DUCs are declining. There are three reasons given for rig counts not increasing:

  • operators showing restraint; focused on free cash flow, not growth;
  • supply chain shortages impacting oil industry;
  • labor shortage.

It's a labor shortage. But the industry is also highly dependent on technology (think "computer chips") and supply chain shortages are impacting drilling.

But the long pole in the tent: labor. 

I don't see it getting better any time soon.

But "restraint." LOL.

So, if operators want to grow, how do they do it? Simply buying land / mineral rights won't be enough. They need to acquire entire companies: drilling assets and human resources.

********************************
A Musical Interlude

Total Eclipse of the Heart, Bonnie Tyler

No New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed; Sixteen Permits Renewed -- January 13, 2022

SCOTUS: rules on vaccine mandate. 

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$82.12
1/13/202201/13/202101/13/202001/13/201901/13/2018
Active Rigs3211546755

No new permits.

Sixteen permits renewed:

  • XTO (8): three Wood permits, all in Williams County; five Wolff Federal permits in McKenzie County;
  • Lime Rock (5): two State permits; one Garfield permit, one Kary permit, and one Emil Veverka permit, all in Dunn County;
  • Rimrock (3): two Skunk Creek permits in Dunn County; one Schneider permit in Dunn County;

One producing well (a DUC) was reported as completed:

  • 35122, 2,624, XTO, Prairie Federal 31X-30E,

SCOTUS Slip Opinion; SCOTUS With Split Decision On Government Mandates -- January 13, 2022

Slip Opinion: released by SCOTUS moments ago. 

This one has nothing to do with Covid-19 mandates. This has to do with double-dipping: whether the Social Security Administration can penalize a military member with a pension who also has a pension from a civil service job. Social Security Administration imposed "windfall" limitations. SCOTUS ruled SSA could not impose these "windfall" limitations in these cases, overturning the District Court and the Sixth Circuit Court. Wow, this is huge: a lot of military folks went on to become US postal employees. A very, very nice (somewhat delayed) Christmas present.

SCOTUS, slip opinion, webpage. 

The Covid-related rulings we were waiting for:

It will be interesting to see how the various news outlets "report" this story. 

Bottom line:

  • Biden's mandate struck down, except for health workers. My take. Fact check needed. 

Link here for story at YahooFinance.com.

Link here for story at CNBC.

Comment: The court got it right on both legal and health safety grounds. This does not preclude companies from imposing their own mandates and the fact that the Court approved mandates for health care facilities it provides "cover" for other companies that want to impose mandates.

*********************************************
Time For A Break

TSM CAPEX Blows The Doors Down -- January 13, 2022

BK: Bank of New York Mellon -- hit a 52-week high. 

AAPL: finally getting traction as an autonomous automobile company. MS says the autonomous vehicle revolution is the mother of all IoT; Tesla is the leader by many laps; the question is whether Apple can be the "second mover" as it has done in so many other sectors. With those MS remarks earlier today, AAPL is moving today: up 68 cents today. 

TSM: CAPEX blows me away -- link here. It will be interesting to hear what Jim Cramer has to say on this, and then "tech check" at 10:00, my least favorite hour on CNBC. 

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing said on Thursday that it would spend between $40 billion and $44 billion on capital expenditures, as demand for semiconductors continues to surge, a problem exacerbated by the ongoing pandemic and supply chain crunch.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor said it earned $1.15 per share during the fourth-quarter on $15.74 billion in revenue, up 24.1% year-over-year. Estimates called for the company to earn $1.11 a share on $15.77 billion. Gross margin for the quarter was 52.7%, operating margin was 41.7%, and net profit margin was 37.9%.
    • AAPL's gross margin in the 25 - 30% range?
  • For the first-quarter, Taiwan Semiconductor said it expects to generate between $16.6 billion and $17.2 billion in revenue, with gross margins between 53% and 55%, while operating profit margins are expected to be between 42% and 44%.

RBN Energy: while SCOOP/STACK oil output falls, "rich" gas signals a rebound, part 2.

Activity in Oklahoma’s SCOOP/STACK play has been picking up. In 2021, the number of active rigs there improved by about 30 — that’s a bigger gain than any U.S. hydrocarbon production basin except the Permian. On a percentage basis, the 160% year-over-year increase in the SCOOP/STACK rig count was exceeded — and just barely — by only a couple of other rich-gas regions: the Niobrara and Ohio portion of Marcellus/Utica. Is SCOOP/STACK really on the rebound and, if so, why? The answers are tied to commodity prices and the fact that the Oklahoma play offers producers both crude oil and “rich,” NGL-saturated associated gas. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss recent developments in the Sooner State’s premier production area.

TSM, again: earnings call. From the CEO:

This concludes my financial presentation. Now I will move on to key messages. I will start by making some comments on our 2022 capital budget and depreciation. Every year, our CapEx is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in the future years. We are witnessing a structural increase in underlying semiconductor demand underpinned by the industry megatrends of 5G-related and HPC applications.

In 2021, we spent US$30 billion to capture the strong demand and support our customers' growth. In 2022, our capital budget is expected to be between US$40 billion to US$44 billion. Out of the US$40 billion to US$44 billion CapEx for 2022, between 70% and 80% of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 2-nanometer, 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making and 10% to 20% will be spent for specialty technologies.

Our depreciation expense is expected to increase by low to mid-teens percentage year-over-year in 2022 as newly incurred depreciation will be partially offset by other notes rolling off depreciation. With this level of CapEx spending in 2022, we reiterate that TSMC remains committed to a sustainable cash dividend on both an annual and quarterly basis.

California, reported previously: