One Well Coming Off Confidential List; Monthly Bakken DUC Data Posted -- August 17, 2021

DUCs: special treat today. A reader sent me the monthly DUC spreadsheet for all oil and gas plays in the US overnight. Bakken data posted here.

WMT: beats; shares; ups guidance. Earnings soar; Delta variant fails to curb traffic, grocery spending boom. Food inflation? Winner: Walmart?

Axios: rarely has an American president's predictions been so wrong, so fast, so convincingly. 

Fall guy? General Milley?

LNG: the remarkable rise of US LNG. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. 

Gulf of Mexico: Big Oil expands footprint. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova.

Tea leaves suggest worsening supply / demand mismatch: China drew on crude inventories in July, marking the fourth consecutive month it has processed more crude than what was available from domestic output and imports. Graphics previously posted, see next entry. Link here. Reuters article here.

China, from August 11, 2021: crude oil inventories dropping. Short term, imports may have dropped due to slowing economic activity but long term, the tea leaves suggest there is going to be a significant supply/demand mismatch. If so, my hunch is that the mismatch won't last long. At $65-WTI, everyone wins.

Global warming: did anyone else know this? Was I the only one. From Alex Epstein:

When people talk about 1.5°C of warming as catastrophic, it's even more absurd than it sounds because it's not 1.5°C warming starting now, it's 1.5°C total since the 1800s. Which means 0.5°C warmer than now -- in a world where far more people die of cold than of heat.

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Back to the Bakken

Synfuels: in the Bakken, a Japanese hydrogen hub. Five-year on-line target.

Active rigs:

$67.19	8/17/2021	08/17/2020	08/17/2019	08/17/2018	08/17/2017
Active Rigs	23	12	61	60	53

Updated rig list is posted by the NDIC at COB.

One well coming off the confidential list:

Tuesday, August 17, 2021: 9 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 200 for the year:

• 22652, conf, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HC, Heart Butte, look how old that permit is; no production data.  

RBN Energy: Shell's latest crude oil project in the deepwater gulf. Last great American whale?

It’s often said that the offshore Gulf of Mexico is a different animal than its onshore counterparts, especially shale and tight-oil plays like the Permian and the Bakken.

Decisions to invest in new production in the GOM aren’t based on crude oil demand and price forecast for the next two or three years; they’re based on expectations for the next two or three decades.

Well, 30 years from now will be 2051, a year after Shell and a number of other energy companies have pledged to achieve “net-zero” carbon emissions. What does decarbonization mean for future development in the offshore Gulf, where the upfront capital costs are enormous and wells can be prolific producers for many, many years.

In today’s blog, we discuss the final investment decision (FID) on Shell’s Whale project in the western Gulf of Mexico and the prospects for further development in the GOM.

AAPL -- PE -- August 16, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

AAPL: 

For the past year, talking heads have suggested AAPL with a P/E running between 33 and 37 was "too expensive." Today, after AAPL closed above $151, the P/E was said to be below 30. 

From July 31, 2021, AAPL:

• Outstanding shares: 16.53 billion (16,530,000,000)
• Share price: $145.86
• Market cap: $2.4 trillion ($2,411,000,000,000)
• P/E (TTM - July 14, 2021): 33.59; share price: $149/share

Today, same source:

• Outstanding shares: 16.53 billion (16,530,000,000) -- no change
• Share price: $151.12
• Market cap: $2.498 trillion ($2,498,000,000,000)
• P/E (TTM): 29.58

• January 28, 2021: P/E: 37, considered by analysts too expensive.
  

Selected P/E's today:

• TSLA: 362
• MSFT: 36.60
• AMD: 37.89
• UNP: 25.92

AAPL target:

A year ago, August 19, 2020, talking heads / analysts suggested AAPL would be trading at $425 one year later, August 19, 2021.

• on August 19, 2020: AAPL trading at $468.
• August 28, 2020: AAPL split 4 -1
• August 28, 2020: AAPL at, after the split: $417
• August 28, 2020: AAPL target one year out, August, 19, 2021: $425, or $106, split-adjusted
• Actual: AAPL trading at $150.

Quick! Name The Fastest-Growing County In The Entire United States This Past Decade -- August 16, 2021

McKenzie County, North Dakota. 

Link to Charles Kennedy. 

The oil boom over the past decade, which made America the world’s top crude oil producer, made a small rural county in [western] North Dakota the fastest-growing county in population between 2010 and 2020, U.S. Census Bureau data showed.

North Dakota’s McKenzie County was the fastest-growing county in America in the past decade, according to the decennial U.S. census.  

The Bakken boom, which began early in the 2010s, contributed a lot to the fastest-growing county in America. [2000 in Montana, 2007 in North Dakota.]

The number of residents in McKenzie County more than doubled over the past decade, jumping from 6,360 residents in 2010 to 14,704 residents 2020, according to the U.S. census.

The growth was “whopping,” Census Bureau demographer Marc Perry said during a press conference, as quoted by the AP.

Williams County, also in North Dakota, registered an 83-percent surge in the number of its residents over the past decade, to 40,950 people in 2020.

The Photo -- August 16, 2021

The graphic: 

There was a lot of talk today regarding that photo. 

But no one connected the dots. 

Whenever there's a crisis for the US president, who does he (we've never had a "she") call for outside advice?

Yup, a former living president. 

Think about that. 

Second question: who's really running the current administration?

Later: the point of all this. The Taliban began their final assault at the very time the Biden presidency was pre-occupied with the Obama birthday bash planning and celebration. The Taliban has learned a lot fighting the Americans for twenty years.

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Time Line

From USA Today. 

From The Guardian.

July

• Officials on 2 July announce the departure of all American and NATO troops from Bagram, Afghanistan’s biggest airbase, which served as the linchpin of US-led operations in the country for two decades.
• Two days later, July 4, the Taliban seize the key district of Panjwai in Kandahar, the insurgents’ birthplace and former bastion.
• The Taliban announce the capture of Islam Qala, Afghanistan’s biggest border crossing with Iran, on 9 July.
• On 14 July, the insurgents take control of the Spin Boldak border crossing with Pakistan, a major trade route between the two countries.
• The Taliban offensive escalates sharply with a new focus on urban centres as the insurgents attack the cities of Lashkar Gah, Kandahar and Herat.
• The United States and Britain say the Taliban may have committed war crimes, accusing the insurgents of “massacring civilians” in the town of Spin Boldak.

August

• Tuesday 3: Eight people are killed in a coordinated Taliban-claimed bomb and gun attack targeting the Afghan defence minister and several lawmakers in Kabul.

• Friday 6: The Taliban shoot dead the head of the Afghan government’s media information centre at a mosque in the capital. They also capture their first Afghan provincial capital, the city of Zaranj in southwestern Nimroz, “without a fight”.

• Saturday 7: President Obama's 60th birthday party on Martha's Vineyard.  The former president and his staffers pre-occupied with biggest birthday spectacular since The Great Gatsby; Afghanistan dropped off their radar scope, sometime in July, if not before.
  

• Monday 9: The northern city of Kunduz follows on Sunday 8 August and Monday 9th, along with Sheberghan, Sar-e-Pul, Taloqan, Aibak and Farah. In what becomes a familiar pattern, fighters reportedly swept into Aibak without meeting any resistance. The deputy chief of Samangan province confirmed that the local governor had withdrawn his soldiers in order to protect the civilian population.

• Despite the bloodshed and sweeping advances, US president Joe Biden gives no suggestion he will delay the troop withdrawal, which is to be completed by 31 August, ahead of the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

• Wednesday 11: With the key besieged northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif the next Taliban target, Afghan president Ashraf Ghani flies up to rally his forces. But his visit is overshadowed by the surrender of hundreds of Afghan soldiers in nearby Kunduz and the overnight capture of a ninth provincial capital, Faizabad. Pul-e-Khumri, 140km north of Kabul, also falls.

• The US military warns that the whole of Afghanistan could fall “within 90 days”.

• Thursday 12: The Taliban capture Ghazni, 150km (90 miles) south-west of Kabul. Herat in the west falls the same day.

• Friday 13: Kandahar, the southern city which saw a lot of fighting in the 20-year war, falls, followed by and Lashkar Gah.

• Saturday 14: Asadabad and Gardez follow on Saturday along with Mazar-i-Sharif, which Ghani had visited just three days earlier.

• Sunday 15: The eastern city of Jalalabad is taken over by the insurgents early in the morning Sunday, leaving Kabul the only remaining major Afghan city still under government control. Falls later in the day. US military cordon off the airport for orderly exit.
  

• Ghani flees the country, reportedly to Tajikistan, and the Taliban enter the capital, eventually taking position in the presidential palace. In a statement, Ghani admits the insurgents have “won."

Can you imagine Churchill throwing a birthday bash for himself on the eve of D-Day?

One New Permit; Twenty Active Rigs; CLR Drops A Couple Of Active Rigs; Grayson Mill Acquires Several Hundred Wells From Equinor -- August 16, 2021

Active rigs:

$67.48	8/16/2021	08/16/2020	08/16/2019	08/16/2018	08/16/2017
Active Rigs	23*	12	61	58	55

Active rigs as reported by the NDIC: 20

• Continental Resources with six active rigs

One permit approved, #38488:

• Operator: Eagle Operating
• Field: Feldner Coulee (Renville)
• Comments:
• Eagle Operating has a permit for M Miller well in NESE 29-159-86,
• the well will be sited 1820 FSL and 605 FEL

One permit was renewed:

• 33888, Liberty Resources, Blomquist E, in Burke County

Change of operator: 

• Grayson Mill Operating acquired approximately 350 wells from Equinor. I have not gone through the list yet, nor counted them but that looks about the number of wells based on the seven pages of wells.
  

Two dry holes:

• 19783, Fram Operating, Schlak, SENE 30-160-86;
• 29241, Solutions Energy, Nangchen, Ward County, SESE 11-155-86;