Friday, February 28, 2020

WTI Drops Below $46; Hess Midstream's Bakken Crude Oil Gathering Systems and Related Assets -- RBN Energy -- February 28, 2020

Alpine low? Wow, remember all that excitement about Alpine High. Turns out to be a bust. Apache ditches Alpine High after $3 billion writedown. Wow. 
Apache Corp. is officially calling it quits on a highly publicized but disappointing shale discovery in West Texas after vehemently defending the play’s prospects for about three years.
The Houston-based company posted a roughly $3 billion writedown on its Alpine High project, a find from 2016 that fizzled when it turned out to hold more natural gas than oil.
Apache will instead focus on offshore riches in Suriname, where the explorer recently struck crude and enlisted French oil titan Total SA as a partner.
Comment: I've been saying the same thing for years that the Permian is producing too much natural gas. Look at the EIA dashboards:
Mexico: Pemex 4Q19 loss widens to $9 billion. AMLO is counting on increased oil revenue to pay for social programs.
Mexican state-owned oil firm PetrĂ³leos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported  a net loss of US$8.77 billion  for the fourth quarter of 2019, widened from a loss of US$8.1 billion  for the same period of 2018, mainly due to lower crude oil exports.
Pemex’s crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.712 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2019, down from an average production of 1.741 million bpd for the fourth quarter of 2018, according to Pemex’s results released today.
The lower production in Q4 2019 versus Q4 2018 was the result of natural decline of production at some mature fields, Pemex said, noting that the decline rate slowed down thanks to production from newer oilfields.
Epic Texas pipeline: update.
  • Permian to EPIC's Crane terminal to Robstown, TX (Corpus Christi market)
    • initial capacity of 600,000 bbls of oil per day
    • full service by April 1, 2020
    • will have a total of 5.4 million bbls of operational storage by April 1, 2020, but will eventualy have 7.5 million bbls of operational storage
    • yet to complete East Dock; to be operational by 2H02
    • West Dock began operations, December, 2019
  • EPIC Crude Holdings was formed in 2017 to build and operate the EPIC Crude Oil Pipeline
    • 700 miles; Orla, TX (Permian and Eagle Ford) to Corpus Christi, TX
Dominion: to buy regional LNG assets from Southern Company, including Pivotal LNG. Link here but nothing of substance.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$45.712/28/202002/28/201902/28/201802/28/201702/28/2016
Active Rigs5067574138

Only one well coming off confidential list today --  
Friday, February 28, 2020: 63 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 170 for the year:
  • 35252, 236, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 44-19 12T, Banks, t9/19; cum 57K 12/19;
RBN Energy: Hess midstream's Bakken crude oil gathering systems and related assets, part 2.  Link here. Archived.
The Bakken was among the first plays to benefit big-time from the Shale Revolution, experiencing a 400%-plus increase in crude production in the first half of the 2010s. The play has had more than its share of challenges, however, including a serious lack of takeaway capacity that spurred the first rapid deployment of modern-day crude-by-rail, followed by a rig-count collapse and major production decline after the mid-decade crash in oil prices. But the Bakken has been roaring back. Crude output there now tops 1.5 MMb/d — some 250 Mb/d higher than its late-2014 peak — and producers have been planning for continued production growth in 2020, though many may be reassessing those plans in light of this week’s coronavirus-related price slide. In any case, production growth is only possible if there’s sufficient gathering infrastructure in place to handle it. Today, we continue our series on crude-related infrastructure in western North Dakota with a look at a leading Bakken midstreamer’s assets.
Over the past four years, Bakken producers have significantly reduced their drilling-and-completion costs and increased their productivity and per-well production. Just as important, their chronic shortfall of pipeline takeaway capacity ended in mid-2017 with the start-up of the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) to Patoka, IL, whose initial capacity of 470 Mb/d has since been expanded to 570 Mb/d. DAPL significantly reduced Bakken shippers’ reliance on crude-by-rail — though substantial volumes are still railed to refineries on the West Coast — and slashed the cost of delivering most of the play’s light crude to Midwest and Gulf Coast markets. We also pointed out that DAPL has been filling up and its co-owners are considering a possible expansion; that a joint venture of Phillips 66 and Bridger Pipeline is developing the new Liberty Pipeline from the Bakken to the crude oil hub in Cushing, OK; and that a number of new gas processing plants are coming online in western North Dakota to handle all the increasing volumes of associated gas produced by the play’s crude-focused wells.
All that sets the stage for continued production growth in the Bakken in 2020 — again, assuming crude oil prices don’t collapse — and the need for new and expanded crude gathering pipelines and related infrastructure. A case in point is Hess Midstream, which owns and operates a large crude gathering network that connects Hess Corp. and third-party wells in the core of Bakken production to two crude oil terminals, a crude header system and a big crude-by-rail facility. (We’ll discuss each of these in a moment.) Owned primarily by Hess Corp. — a leading Bakken producer — and Global Infrastructure Partners, Hess Midstream also has gas gathering pipelines, gas processing plants and produced-water gathering pipelines in the Bakken.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

Coronavirus Update -- February 27, 2020

This was not a good day for those anxious about coronavirus. The four most important indicators did not improve, but again, the number of deaths are so small, it doesn't take many to skew the results.
  • growth factor turned up (bad, really bad news)
  • total deaths, change in total, still really, really low but went from 1% to 2% change, day-over-day (bad news)
  • change in number of daily deaths, day-over-day, went from 37 to 58 which is not particularly bad, considering that almost all of them were in China, this still represented a 57% increase -- really, really bad
  • the good news (few new deaths in countries outside of China) but that was offset by news of huge numbers of people now "of interest," as they say, in places like California and New York state
The statistics are linked at the link at the top of the sidebar at the right.

Idle Rambling; Not Ready For Prime Time -- All Politics -- February 27, 2020

When it comes to politics, the three polls I trust the least:
  • Fox News
  • The Economist
  • CNN
The other pollsters I don't trust much either, but those three have the least credibility with me.

Perhpas Quinnipiac is one of the better ones.

But this is very, very interesting.

The Economist is about as liberal one can get; Fox News is about as conservative as one can get.

But in the national 2020 Democrat presidential race, Fox News and the Economist are showing almost identical results:
  • Bernie: 30% (Economist); 31% (Fox News)
  • Biden: 18% (Economist); 20% (Fox News)
The Hill is similar: 28% for Bernie; 17% for Biden.

The other polls are showing the same thing.

Again, this is a national poll so it may not mean a thing with regard to delegates. Hillary (and others in the past) have won the popular vote but not the presidency.

Good, bad, indifferent, those numbers do not excite me one way or the other. This is what caught my attention: since January, Bernie Sanders has jumped 8 points (31%) while Joe Biden has dropped 8 points (18%).


That's a huge shift.

On top of that, people like Nancy Pelosi are publicly warming up to Bernie Sanders. 

South Carolina: it looks like Biden could have a huge win. He would be doing even better if Tom Steyer and Buttigieg weren't taking votes from him. Everything suggests that Bernie will max out at 25% in South Carolina regardless of who else is running. Clyburn's endorsement was huge; herd mentality is strong in South Carolina (as it is in California and many [most] other states.

As I go through the rest of the states, it's a real toss-up: either Sanders gets the nomination in Milwaukee on the first vote, or he comes close, with no one having a majority on the first vote.

I'm not making light of this, but the Milwaukee brewery shooting today could very well ... how do I put this delicately ... let's do it from the other side of the coin: if Bernie doesn't get the nomination on the first vote and then loses on the second vote, all hell is going to break loose in that convention hall.

For the MAGA Trumpers, the question is this: who is worse for America. Not worse for Trump, but worse for America. I won't show my cards on that one, but like everything else on which I opine, I know I'm right. LOL. Sometimes I wonder how my wife can live with me. LOL.

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Bloomberg

Let's look at Bloomberg for a minute. Looking at momentum shifts and huge advertising campaign, the following is a real possibility. The following does not show up in the most recent polls, but if one looks at momentum and a huge advertising push, and no more debates, one could defend the following:
  • Texas: a three-way, maybe four-way tie -- Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg ... Pocahontas.
  • Virginia: much like Texas .... Bernie wins but Bloomberg, Biden hang in there. This may be the end for Buttigieg. Along with his showing in South Carolina.
So, Bloomberg could do well in a couple of states. Unfortunately for Bloomberg, the momentum in those few states won't help in the rest of Super Tuesday states -- they are all voting at the same time.
  • California: Bloomberg -- no chance at all, and no delegates. Sanders will take this one easily, but not decisively enough to take more than half the delegates.
  • Minnesota: Bloomberg --  no chance at all, and no delegates.
    • Minnesota: Klobuchar (huge win) but Sanders will do well (again, the delegate count favors a brokered convention)
  • Florida: could be another huge win for Biden
Every time I go through this list, pushing for one of the candidates to get enough delegates on the first vote, I can never get there. Neither can James Carville. Bernie won't get any delegates in Florida. It's hard to win a majority of delegates on the first vote if you can't even get a single delegate in Florida. And Georgia will be just as tough.

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Money

With the implosion of the stock market, this is the end of huge donations for Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Biden, Pocahontas. No matter how rich one is, a 25% loss in net worth gets one's attention.

South Carolina is going to give Biden bragging rights, but he is still going to run out of money, sooner than later.

Money wins. That leaves Bernie, Bloomberg, and Steyer.

Coronavirus -- Update -- February 27, 2020

We won't see the numbers until around midnight tonight, but right now there were 16 new deaths reported worldwide. Yesterday there were 38. If the "16" holds today, that will represent a change of minus 58%, the best in three days and continuing the downward trend.

In addition, the change in total number of deaths will be less than 1% -- the lowest it has been since the coronavirus outbreak was identified, and continuing the downward trend.

Of the 16 new deaths in the last 24 hours:
  • Iran: 7
  • Italy: 5
  • China: 2
  • South Korea: 1
  • Japan: 1
I find the coronavirus story fascinating on so many levels. Most fascinating: in countries millions and millions of people, we are able to "capture" single deaths. Fascinating.

With such small numbers, it only takes a few deaths in any one day to really affect the overall percentages. 

Diamond Princess. No new deaths reported in quite some time.

That "de novo" death in northern California is very, very interesting. More on that later, but I am on my way to picking up Sophia.

Adult male slate-colored junco. Compare with photograph at this link.

WTI Drops Below $47; Down Almost 5% -- February 27, 2020

Headline: Saudis slash March, 2020, crude oil exports to China as demand slumps.

Gasoline demand, link here




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Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

$46.432/27/202002/27/201902/27/201802/27/201702/27/2016
Active Rigs5066574138

Two new permits today, #37414, - #37415, inclusive:
  • Operator: Kraken
  • Field: Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • Kraken has permits for a two-well Redfield Central pad in NENW section 25-157-99, Lone Tree Lake oil field.
Ten wells approved for confidential status:
  • Whiting: Ogden (3), Fladeland (2), Sondrol (1), Rauser (3), Harvey, (1).
No permits canceled.

No permits renewed.

No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: