Idle Rambling, Independence Day Eve -- The ADP Employment Report Today; The Record S&P -- July 3, 2019

Recession talk. 

A reader pointed me to Advisor Perspectives.

This is a nice analysis of the ADP employment report today.

This is the graph with minimal markings. Spend some time looking at this graph while reading the linked article.

Two comments regarding that linked article.

First, for the past five years, analysts have been talking about a "recession right around the corner." Some analysts suggest we are already in a recession. My interpretation of the graphic above suggests we are a) not in a recession; and, b) a recession is not "right around the corner."

This is based solely on the ADP employment report today and the comparison of this data with the data prior to and during the last recession.

The second observation, "why the market went up today," with the S&P 500 hitting a third consecutive record high:

• the ADP employment report, as good as it was, fell short of expectations
• if the economy is struggling that puts pressure on "the Fed" to cut rates
• investors are looking for any data to suggest that the economy is not doing as well as one might hope
• with the ADP coming in under expectations (quite a bit, in fact) that puts pressure on the Fed to cut rates 
• cutting rates is "bullish" for the stock market -- and that's why the market went up today, the third consecutive day with record highs

Finally, the graphic with some additional markings:

 

And I would comment on the additional markings, but it's late, and I'm heading to bed.

Keeping America Great -- Longest Expansion In US History -- Stock Market At All-Time High -- July 3, 2019

I missed this earlier this week -- how did that happen? Oh, that's right. I'm on vacation, haven't been following the news. I assume ABC, CBS,  NBC, MSNBC, and, CNBC had this covered.

From google:

Link here.

And then this,

Airport Construction On Schedule But Adequate Cement Is An Issue -- July 3, 2019

Link here.

Nip and tuck.

On track to open October 10, 2019, but due to flooding, adequate cement for the new Williston airport is a challenge. Officials have alternate sources of cement but not without a lot of quick thinking/quick acting.

From the linked article:

Officials at the Williston Basin International Airport are breathing a sigh of relief as a temporary solution for the facility’s ongoing cement shortage has been found.

The airport has been dealing with a lack of cement needed to complete projects at the site, most notably the runway and taxiway. Flooding in Missouri, where the supplier is located, has created a cement deficiency not just for Williston’s airport project, but for companies all across the upper Midwest.

Airport Director Anthony Dudas said the runway is a “critical timeline piece” to complete, as the paint markings and runway edge lighting must be completed before the FAA can do the required flight checks on it.

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Dim Sum In London

XTO To Build Gas Plant In Williams County -- July 3, 2019

Link here. Data points:

• Williams County: approves permit, 4 - 1
• XTO
• "gas plant": 150 million cubic feet per day
• neighbors had objected
• Planning and Zoning Commission: a tie vote (generally means a "No" for the county)
• 76 acres in Judson Township
• permit includes an outline for an adjacent future plant if the company plans to expand

Judson Township: first township west of Williston Township, either side of US 2; west of Judson is Round Prairie whose western border is the Montana state line.

Natural gas processing plants in North Dakota are tracked here.

It appears this would be XTO's second gas plant in North Dakota. The XTO plant in Ray, ND, has a nameplate capacity of 25 million cubic feet per day.

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Fantasy Land

From moneyrates, a PDF will load on your desktop.

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More Fun On The Water

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A Musical Interlude

Most of you may just want to skip ahead to 5:58:



I Can't Help Falling In Love With You, Arlo Guthrie

Equinor With Six New Permits East Of Williston -- July 3, 2019

Active rigs:

$57.30	7/3/2019	07/03/2018	07/03/2017	07/03/2016	07/03/2015
Active Rigs	59	66	57	30	76

Fourteen new permits:

• Operators: Equinor (6); Hess (5); XTO (3)
• Fields: Catwalk (Williams); Williston (Williams); Avoca (Williams); Beaver Lodge (Williams); Bear Creek (Dunn)
• Comments: 
• Equinor has permits for a six-well Lucy Hanson / Larsen pad in section 15-154-100; multiple fields; 
• Hess with permits for a 5-well BL-Iverson pad in section 26-155-96, Beaver Lodge oil field
• XTO with permits for a 3-well Mariner pad in section 36-148-96 in Bear Creek oil field 

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 34920,  883, XTO, Christiana 21X-6F, West Capa, t5/19; cum --;
• 34917, 1,201, XTO, Christiana 21X-6EXH, West Capa, t6/19; cum --;
• 34919, 1,028, XTO, Christiana 21X-6AXB, West Capa, t6/19; cum --;
• 34918, 1,206, XTO, Christiana 21X-6A,West Capa, t6/19; cum 8K over 20 days;