Monday, June 17, 2019

Equinor

Brigham (BEXP) --> Statoil (STO) --> Equinor (EQNR) —> Grayson Mill
    • Marcellus: 247,000 net acres
    • Eagle Ford: 69,000 net acres
    • Bakken: 235,000 net acres 
  • March, 2018: will change name from Statoil to Equinor
  • November, 2012: NOG says 375,800 acres
  • December 9, 2011: noted that ticker symbol BEXP no longer existed 
  • December 8, 2011: Statoil's offer to buy tendered BEXP shares has closed this date
  • October 17, 2011: sale to Statoil announced; effective, 2012
  • August 9, 2011, corporate presentation: 375,800 net acres;
  • June 7, 2011, corporate presentation: 378,100 net acres; 6,900 additional acres
  • 1Q11 conference call: 371,200 net acres; 6,900 additional acres since last update 
  • Last update: net present value (NPV)/well ~ $9.5 million 
  • 2Q12: rigs, 10 ---> 16 since acquiring BEXP
  • Accelerating to 12 rigs by March, 2012; two dedicated frac teams now
  • (Eastern Montana: Rough Rider and Sedlacek)
  • Rough Rider, 155,100 net acres: Williston area, both north and south of the river; Williams and McKenzie
  • Sedlacek, 9,900 net acres: eastern Montana
  • Parshall/Ross: Mountrail County; most prolific area to date in ND Bakken; 35,900 net acres in the Bakken; 35,000 net acres in the Three Forks (same surface, no doubt)
  • Parshall/Austin/Sanish: 5,300 net acres in the Bakken; 2,700 net acres in TF (same surface, no doubt)
  • Mercer (North Dakota): 30,000 net acres Bakken; 30,000 net acres TF (same surface, no doubt)
  • Other extensional areas: 24,700 net acres

Random Comment On US Natural Gas Inventories -- June 17, 2019

A reader shows us again how incredible the natural gas "fill rate" has been so far this year. See this post for background.

How fast is the natural gas fill rate this year? Really fast.

For the week ending March 22, 2019 -- just a few weeks ago, US natural gas inventories were 20% below inventories one year earlier.

By June 7, 2019, most recent data available, US natural gas inventories are now 10% above those of last year.

There's a reason President Trump is unhappy with Europe linking with Russia for natural gas (Nord Stream 2). The US needs markets for all the natural gas it is producing.

Oasis Petroleum -- May, 2019 -- Corporate Presentation

Oasis Petroleum website here.

Inventory
  • net acres
    • Bakken: 414,000
    • Delaware: 23,000
Rigs (2019): Bakken, 2 - 3; Delaware: 2
Production, 1Q19: Bakken, 86,000 boepd; Delaware, 6,000 boepd
Wells:
  • since 2010, over 1,000 wells averaging ~ 10,000 feet of lateral length
  • rapidly applying Williston learnings in Delaware
    • cycle times down by 15 days
    • well costs down from $11.5 million to $10.1 million
Free cash flow: expected to deliver free cash flow at $50 WTI
  • Williston asset producing free cash flow to fund Delaware and OMP growth
Bakken
  • 1,385 top-tier operated locations
  • 20+ year inventory life at current rig pace
  • top tier prospects
    • South Cottonwood
    • Wild Basin -- main focus right now
    • Indian hills
    • Painted Woods
    • Red Bank
    • Montana
  • expanded top-tier with high intensity fracks in step-out areas
    • South Cottonwood now added to top-tier inventory
  • offset well results (3-month cum bbls of oil per 1,000 feet lateral)
    • South Cottonwood
      • pre-2016 wells: 2,122
      • offset 2016+ wells: 5,146 (up over 100%)
      • 2017+ Bakken average: 5,325
    • Painted Woods
      • pre-2016: 3.028
      • OAS recent tests: 6,111 (up over 100%)
      • 2017+ Bakken average: 5,325
    • Montana
      • pre-2016 wells: 2,361
      • offset 2016+ wells: 5,048 (up over 100%)
      • 2017+ Bakken average: 5,325
Peers:of 16 peers in the middle Bakken, OAS ranks #1 in Williston well productivity (raw data provided by outside source)
Midstream: in the Delaware, midstream development: Panther DevCo
Borrowing: no near-term maturities
  • S&P: BB-
  • Moody's: B3
Bakken midstream: OMP
  • Oasis' MLP
  • 2nd largest gas processor in the Williston Basin with the startup of Wild Basin Gas Plant II, December, 2018
Delaware Panther DevCo to OMP
  • Panther acreage: at the three-county area -- Loving, Winkler, Ward; just west of the Wink Oil Hub

Hess With Three New Permits -- June 17, 2019

DUCs: I'm sure this has been followed on twitter, like forever, but this is the first time I've seen it:


For me, getting DUC data means a whole lot more than weekly rig counts.

Of those 8,000 DUCs, only a thousand of them are in the Bakken. 

*****************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$51.986/17/201906/17/201806/17/201706/17/201606/17/2015
Active Rigs6262572878

Three new permits:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Fields: Tioga (Williams)
  • Comments: Hess with permits for a 3-well TI-Beauty Valley pad in section 14-158-95, Tioga oil field
Four permits renewed:
  • Whiting (3): three Schilke permits in Williams County
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: a Bervik permit in Divide County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35133, 1,748, Whiting, Dam State 41-16-4TFH, Epping, t5/19; cum --; runs south;
  • 35132, 1,573, Whiting, Dam State 41-16-3H, Epping, t6/19; cum --; runs south;
  • 35134, 1,798, Whiting, Dam State 44-9-6H, Epping, t5/19; cum --; runs north;
    • neighboring wells (all still off line; some off line longer than others):
      • 21041, 1,415, Whiting, 20711 State ... t12/11; cum 218K 9/18;
      • 21042, 1,204, Whiting, 20711 Mildred ... t12/11; cum 241K 9/18;
      • 28542, 2,041, Whiting, P Dam State .... t3/15; cum 272K 3/19;
      • 28541, 1,700, Whiting, P Dam State ... t2/15; cum 137K 3/19;
      • 28540, 2,614, Whiting, P Dam State ... t2/15; cum 162K 3/19;
      • 28539, 2,271, Whiting, P Dam State ... t2/15; cum 182K 3/19;

Wind Energy Initiative In Germany Collapses -- Wind Energy CEO -- June 17, 2019

Press release from "wind energy" advocacy site, May 10, 2019, builds on previous posts:
Screenshot headline / banner from the May 10, 2019, press release:


The story at the linked May, 2019, site:
The growth of onshore wind energy is collapsing in Germany, jeopardising both German and EU renewables targets. Germany installed just 134 MW of new onshore wind farms in the first quarter of 2019 – the country’s worst first quarter for onshore installations since 2000.

Germany is likely to install a total of just 1-2 GW of onshore wind this year. This is significantly down on the past five years when Germany installed an average of 4.3 GW per year. This is well below what Germany needs to meet its own 65% renewable electricity target by 2030 and to deliver its share of the EU’s 32% renewable energy target. Offshore wind will not fill the gap: Germany is due to build just 730 MW per year up to 2030.

This is in contrast with Spain, for example, which will build around 4 GW of new wind energy in 2019. Some of the slowdown in Germany is the result of failed auction systems in 2017, when a lot of community projects won without a permit. Many of these projects are still to be built due to more generous realisation timelines.

But permitting for new wind farms remains the underlying problem. The process used to take just 10 months but is now taking over two years. Public authorities are not applying deadlines and many wind farm projects are getting stuck in legal disputes. Plus there is a lack of staff to process the applications, especially at Bundesland level. Just 400 MW of new wind farm permits were awarded in Q1 2019, well below historical levels. All this has meant the last three onshore wind auction rounds were undersubscribed leading to rising prices.

WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson said: “Onshore wind energy in Germany is in deep trouble. The development of new wind farms has almost ground to a halt. The main problem is permitting – it’s got much slower, more complex and there aren’t enough civil servants to process the applications. It seriously undermines Germany’s ability to meet its 2030 renewables target and contribute to the EU target. And it’s affecting Germany’s wind turbine industrial base. Half of Europe’s 300,000 wind energy jobs are in Germany. But 10,000 have gone in Germany in the last five years. And this could get worse: there hasn’t been a single turbine order recorded in Germany in Q1 this year.
The reader who sent me the link, and who follows this a lot more closely than I do, suggests that the wind issue is much more serious in Germany that this article implies/suggests. That would make sense. The article is a press release from an advocacy, lobbying group. On the one hand, they want a bit of hyperbole to advocate their position, but if they tell us how bad it really is, they run the risk of getting even less support. 

We're starting to see the same thing in North Dakota. The ND PUC recently denied a permit for a wind farm in Burke County.