Part 5, T+58 -- January 3, 2019 -- Telstar And Tornados

Next time someone tells you the weather is getting worse due to AGW, show them this, from Mark Perry, link here.

The chart shows the annual strong/violent (categories F3, F4 and F5) tornado count in the US back to 1954 when the NOAA started tracking these data. 

Last year there were only 12 tornadoes in the US, all category F3 (strong), which is the lowest annual tornado count for the US in more than 60 years of modern records.

Further, it was the first year ever in the US that there wasn’t a single violent tornado in the violent F4 or F5 categories.

Tornadoes only killed 10 Americans in 2018, the fewest since unofficial records began in 1875 during the administration of President Ulysses S. Grant.

The previous record low year for tornado deaths was 1910, when 12 people died, according to data from NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. In an “average” year, 69 people are killed by tornadoes in the U.S., the Weather Channel said.

Meanwhile, as reported earlier, crops yields are getting better in the midwest, and farmers are planting more corn and soybeans farther north and farther west.

One wonders if we've been asking the wrong questions ...

By the way, if you go to the link above, be sure to look at median income of various ethnic groups in the US. It might surprise you. 

*******************************

For All The Sapiens Out There Tonight

Telstar, The Tornados

Bakken Deals -- 2018

Rumors from a reader that Ballantyne has acquired Crescent Point Energy assets in Bottineau County
Enduro files for bankruptcy; Cobra Oil & Gas to acquire North Dakota assets
Proposal to unitize Long Creek oil field, CLR
Kraken Acquires K-F Wells In Mountrail
Operator transfer; about 40 wells from Oasis to Whiting
US Energy Corp to acquire Bakken assets for $20 million 
Whiting bolt-on acquisition; $130 million
NOG in a $300 million deal
Petro-Hunt acquires 220 SM wells
NOG in a $150 million deal 
PetroShale, $30K/acre
Oasis sells 55,000 acres; $130 million  

************************************

Vigas

During our stay in Santa Fe last week, I saw these beams everywhere, thought about them often, but never had a "push" to research them. Then I found a nice passage about vigas in Jennet Conant's book on J. Robert Oppenheimer, p.57.

From wiki:

Vigas are wooden beams used in the traditional adobe architecture of the American Southwest, especially New Mexico.

In this type of construction, the vigas are the main structural members carrying the weight of the roof to the load-bearing exterior walls. The exposed beam ends projecting from the outside of the wall are a defining characteristic of Spanish Colonial Architecture in New Mexico and often replicated in modern Pueblo Revival architecture. Usually the vigas are simply peeled logs with a minimum of woodworking. In traditional buildings, the vigas support latillas (laths) which are placed crosswise and upon which the adobe roof is laid, often with intermediate layers of brush or soil.

The latillas may be hewn boards, or in more rustic buildings, simply peeled branches.

These building techniques date back to the Ancestral Puebloan peoples, and vigas (or holes left where the vigas have deteriorated) are visible in many of their surviving buildings.

Since the modern Pueblo Revival style was popularized in the 1920s and 1930s, vigas are typically used for ornamental rather than structural purposes. Noted architect John Gaw Meem incorporated ornamental vigas into many of his designs. Contemporary construction in Santa Fe, New Mexico, which is controlled by stringent building codes, typically incorporates ornamental vigas, although the latest revision of the residential building code gives credit for structural vigas.

Older structures that have been reconstructed (e.g. the Palace of the Governors in Santa Fe) may contain both structural and ornamental vigas.

***************************

Ski School, Sophia, Age Four Years Old, Angel Fire, New Mexico

 

 ****************************

Life During Wartime, Talking Heads

CLR Must Be Demanding Much More From Their Wells -- January 3, 2019

Updates

January 4, 2019: additional comment came in.

Later, 9:29 p.m. CT: see first comment. Reader suggests neighboring frack may have damaged #22891. 

Original Post 

Wow, CLR is really getting "picky." This seems to have been a nice well in an area with a lot of activity, but for whatever reason, CLR decided to abandon the well (AB). It's not permanently abandoned so it could still come back but production was actually pretty good when it was taken off line back in 2017. It had weathered the "Saudi Surge" (2014 - 2016) but for some reason CLR "AB'd" it.

The well:

• 22891, 947, CLR, Monroe 1-2H, Banks, t8/12; cum 307K 7/17; put on a pump, 9/13;

Production profile of interest:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	223	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	5	674	451	13070	1340	0	1270
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	1	58	0	80	1	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	24	1836	2111	696	3223	2538	358
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	2659	2583	968	4507	4035	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	2809	3005	1042	5894	4993	420
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	2783	2860	1002	4474	3994	15
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	3040	2932	1167	4997	4516	0

Update Of A BR Well Positively Impacted By Neighboring Fracks -- January 3, 2019

It looks like there might be a nice halo effect in Elidah oil field. The wells:

• 34146, 50, BR, Sanvan 1A-MBH-ULW,  Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days; #19712, #21542
• 31771, 77, BR, Sanvan 8-1-29UTFH-ULW, Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days;

Look at #19712 and #21542.

#19712 has only been back on line for two days, so too early to tell.

But look at #21542, the well:

• 21542, 2,978, BR, Ivan 11-29TFH, Elidah, t7/12; cum 218K 11/18; this well is well west of the Sanvan wells but there are other wells in the area that may be active (still on conf) -- API: 33-053-03788; according to FracFocus, this well was last fracked in 2012; not recently re-fracked; tell me again about the Hubbert peak oil theory:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	25	8171	7910	11257	13572	241	13269
BAKKEN	10-2018	30	11703	11568	17435	8471	1116	7281
BAKKEN	9-2018	24	8581	8761	13324	13947	7	13880
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	10358	10606	14808	13265	10509	2679
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	8112	7690	15911	11712	6234	5401
BAKKEN	6-2018	29	4176	4074	15705	6521	420	6029
BAKKEN	5-2018	22	4336	4312	13802	6274	6219	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	17	1127	938	553	1668	1626	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	19	717	707	507	1516	1469	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	1401	1792	1800	2506	2429	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	1376	893	1079	2601	2497	27
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	1354	1778	1133	2627	2513	40

Part 4, T+58 -- January 3, 2019

Some of the following was taken from Chesto over at The Boston Globe:

Apple pays the price for its expensive phones: It was only a matter of time, in an age of $1,000 iPhones, that consumers would start saying "no more." And when they did, as tech columnist Hiawatha Bray writes, it was in Chinese.

Delta's warning rattles airline investors: The Atlanta-based carrier said fare revenue didn't climb as much as expected during the holiday season.  

National Grid, steelworkers unions reach truce: There's a preliminary agreement in place to end the lockout that has slowed work at National Grid for more than six months. The details aren't public yet. But one thing's for sure: It will take a long time to clear out the pending backlog of gas hookups.

ISO New England is doing just fine, thank you. Very little need for Canadian hydro (very expensive) and less than 1% coal. 

Opportunities: this might be the year car prices come way down. Certainly, EVs are coming down in price. Tesla has dropped their prices and GM likely to follow. Of course, the Federal tax breaks for both companies are being phased out now that both compnies have reached "the threshold." With impeachment on the minds of US House members Congress may not have the attention span to work on extending the "EV threshold." If not an EV, the Nissan line-up is enticing. Especially the Rogue. EV sales data is almost complete for calendar year 2018.

If you have 22 minutes with nothing else to do:

The 2019 Nissan Rogue

State of Oregon slapped. Over-reach by state ruled unconstitutional. 

Market: I never thought I would have another chance to buy shares in some companies at such a great price.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

It's up to you. Make up your mind. Do what you're gonna do. It's all so clear. It was an open book test as soon as Jerome "Jay" Powell went ahead and raised "rates" a third time when things were looking to go south, anyway.

It's Up To You, Rick Nelson