Saudi's August Production Numbers "Released" -- August 31, 2018

Here's the headline:

Here are the numbers:

Saudi Arabia increased production from 10.40 million bpd in July to 10.48 million bpd in August.

10.48. Not 10.47 or 10.49, but 10.48. "False precision."

Here are some more numbers:

• global supply / consumption: 100 million bopd
• North Dakota production: 1.2 million bopd
• Saudi Arabia: difference between 10.48 million and 10.40 million = 0.08 million = 80,000 bbls
• DAPL: 470,000 bopd =  80,000 bbls every four hours

And, again, the article did not mention that August is the hottest month in Saudi Arabia where they convert oil to electricity to run their air conditioners.

The metrics at this post are probably better metrics to track.

Not Out Of The Woods Yet -- Saudi Foreign Exchange Reserves Decline -- Saudi-US Oil Imports -- August 31, 2018

Link here. Not out of the woods yet. After turning around in April - June, 2018, Saudi's reserves fell significantly in July despite robust oil prices:

Link here.

CLR's Collison Wells In Avoca Oil Field

Updates

September28, 2019: status of wells, and production, updated;

December 1, 2018: graphic updated --

Original Post

Being drilled as we speak.

The wells:

• 23397, 969, CLR, Collison 1-23H, Avoca, t12/12; cum 245K 7/19;
• 34926, drl-->conf, CLR, Collison 9-23H1, Avoca, still confidential, but nice production:
  

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  8-2019	16667	16938
  7-2019	35151	37249
  6-2019	15671	13588
  5-2019	749	0

• 34925, drl-->conf, CLR, Collison 10-23H1, Avoca, still confidential, but nice production:
  

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  8-2019	12405	13546
  7-2019	32671	35290
  6-2019	24910	22248
  5-2019	495	0

• 34924, drl-->conf, CLR, Collison 11-23H, Avoca, still confidential, but nice production:
  

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  8-2019	13298	15878
  7-2019	31082	33839
  6-2019	14554	12805
  5-2019	879	0
  4-2019	9	0

• 34923, drl--> conf, CLR, Collison 12-23H1, Avoca, still confidential, but nice production:

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  8-2019	28624	31214
  7-2019	24246	24248
  6-2019	35503	21080
  5-2019	16500	0
  4-2019	271	0

• 35053, drl--> conf, Collison 13-23HSL, Avoca, still confidential, but nice production:

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  8-2019	21929	25860
  7-2019	34351	38531
  6-2019	42083	23728
  5-2019	17426	0
  4-2019	1238	0

• 35054, drl--> conf, CLR, Rader 4-24HSL1, Avoca, still confidential, but nice production:
  

  Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
  8-2019	20900	24127
  7-2019	13444	14203
  6-2019	8231	5459
  5-2019	240	0
  4-2019	1152	0

For newbies: pay attention to the "chronologic numbers." In the wells above, the chronologic numbers are 1, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 4.

The graphic:

The Energy, Market, And Political Page, T+18 -- August 31, 2018

All major indices have just turned green.

WTI has dropped slightly below $70.

Analysts' forecast for average price of Brent crude in 2019: link here.

• overall respondents, 44%: between $70 - $80/bbl
• 23%: $80 - $90/bbl
• 23%: below $70/bbl
• 14%: above $90/bbl
• in other words, all but 23% said Brent will be where it is today or higher in 2019
• Fitch Solutions Macro Research: $82/bbl -- 2019
• Bloomberg Consensus: $69.50/bbl -- 2019
• short-term, Fitch said, Brent will struggle for direction, but the long-term trend will be toward $91 in 2022

The market (I assume this is going to be a light volume trading day -- four day weekend):

• Dow, irrelevant: up 15 points
• NOG: down 2.5 cents, about a percnet
• OAS: down 9 cents, about 3/4th percent
• CVX: down 1%, struggling
• TSLA: down to $301
• AAPL: remains on a tear -- up another $2.55
• AMZN: monopoly? up $15 - that should put Amazon over $1 trillion market cap .. let's see ... nope, at $983 billion; Apple?  $1.099 trillion market cap
• GOOG: monopoly? down $8
• NFLX: up almost $3

Apple: the September roll-out is going to be huge. I think it's going to be the second- or third-largest roll-out of Apple products since the original iPhone announcement. I listened to a panel of talking heads yesterday, including Gene Munster, on CNBC regarding Apple. Munster gets it; the CNBC  talking heads did not. It almost seemed most of the CNBC talking heads still used a Blackberry (see this link).

One debate centered on "form factor." Apparently Apple will come out with a "bigger" iPhone -- panelists not sure consumers would like a larger format. If Apple comes up with a multi-phone / one telesphone number solution, this would be huge. Technically Apple is there with a pocket-size iPhone and a super-size iPad but convert that iPad to an iPhone with the same telephone number as the pocket-size iPhone -- you have instant "Schwab office of the future / Cisco Telepresence."

Another debate centered on hardware. The CNBC analysts appeared not to understand the Chinese market.

Another debate centered on the Apple ecosystem with one CNBC analyst actually saying that "the Apple ecosystem seems pretty good." 

One almost gets the feeling that these CNBC analysts hold a lot of GE stock. GE is the parent company of Apple competitor Microsoft and is the parent company of NBC and CNBC. I would assume CNBC employees all use Microsoft products.

The rollout, as rumored, here.

• three new iPhones (no home button; and nearly all screen)
• a larger 6.5-inch version of the iPhone X with three rear cameras (?)
• Apple Pencil support (?)
• a less expensive 6.1-inch version shipping in October
• since its debut, the iPhone SE -- its most affordable option -- the one I have and love -- could be stuffed into a smaller body of an iPhone 5; a 4-inch refreshed SE could retail at $349 -- over 24 months, $29/month -- ATT would give them away with a data plan contract
• the Apple Watch 4
• new iPad Pros
• refresh the Mac line
• MacBook Air replacement (?)
• a whole lot more
• the article fails to mention a re-freshed iMac Mini

Bullish For Oil: US Crude Oil Supply Drops Below 23 Days -- Not Seen Since 2014 / 2015 -- August 31, 2018

From the EIA.

Going into Labor Day 2018, the US has finally dropped below 23 days of crude oil supply. We last saw that back in 2014 / 2015.  If this is not bullish for oil, I don't know what is. If it trends toward 20 days or less, "Katie, bar the door."

Disclaimer: there may be exceptions. I may have missed something, but "generally," it's an accurate statement.

Recent data first, then scroll down to see 2014/2015 data.

Recent data:

2014/2015 data: