Monday, March 26, 2018

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #34 -- March 26, 2018

I'm sure, by now, everyone has seen this story from BloombergPolitics (note: politics, not business):
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has concluded that a landmark Obama-era effort to cut vehicle greenhouse-gas emissions is too aggressive and agrees with automakers that the standards should be revised, according to people familiar with the matter.
The agency has completed a draft decision outlining the rationale for easing fuel efficiency regulations for model-year 2022-2025 cars and light trucks, two people said. Bill Wehrum, chief of the agency’s Office of Air and Radiation, plans to meet with environmental regulators in California next week to discuss the draft determination ahead of an April 1 deadline to make it public, according to the people.
California? The 800-pound tailpipe gorilla:
The California Air Resources Board is troubled by reports of the EPA’s decision.
“California paved the way for a single national program and is fully committed to maintaining it,” [a California regulator] said. “This rumored finding -- if official -- places that program in jeopardy. We feel strongly that weakening the program will waste fuel, increase emissions, and cost consumers more money.”
Back on July 19, 2016, almost two years ago, I posted this one-line: The new standards (2022 - 2025) will be hammered out starting in 2018.

And here it is, 2018, and the new standards are being hammered out.

Back to the linked story above.

My "not-ready-for-prime-time" reply to Don who sent me the link (this is one of my really, really poor replies, but it is what it is. I will let the editors clean up the reply later.):
This will be epic.

If California refuses to play along, auto makers will have to make a decision. Either:
a) two markets - the California market and the rest of the US; or,
b) ignore the California market
US auto makers won't have the guts to ignore the California market but it would be great to call California's bluff. My hunch is that if automakers refused to meet California's stricter requirements and didn't sell new vehicles there that didn't meet standards, Californians would go nuts; demand their state government relax the standards.

I don't know. But this is going to be an epic battle: the EPA against California.

California also has time on its side. California knows that Trump is "one and done." In 2020, a Democratic president, and a new EPA. California can easily drag this out for a couple of years.

I really have trouble seeing California blink on on this one.

Meanwhile, auto manufacturers are in a tough position. Do they strategize to take advantage of "new" rules, or do they strategize to prepare for California?

My hunch: California could compromise by delaying new rules for one or two years, but at the end of the day, I think California holds the better hand -- simply because the state is so far left.

It's going to be interesting to watch.
For other posts on CAFE standards, there is tag at the bottom of the blog: CAFE_standards.

By the way, Trump needs to change the name of the name of the EPA to the "PEA, the Political Environmental Agency."

The Little Old Lady From Pasadena, Jan and Dean

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Notes to the Granddaughters

I consider myself incredibly fortunate to have been able to spend four of the best years of my life in southern California: living in a spacious apartment -- more a "house" than an apartment -- in South Pasadena, just a few blocks from Colorado Boulevard.

Wow, the stories I could tell, including the evening I spent with two young men who catered parties for Hugh Hefner -- yes, that Hefner. I was given the opportunity to be part of the catering party but the "conditions" were more than I could accept. A missed opportunity? I will never know but my hunch is my life would have turned out a whole lot differently.

I had driven pretty much non-stop from North Dakota to Los Angeles (Highland Park) in a brand new muscle car, a Chevy Nova, a gift from my dad. My last stop before driving into Los Angeles was somewhere in the high desert where I slept in the car overnight. Stepping out of the car the next morning, I noticed a rattlesnake under the car. In hindsight, an omen.

I drove into Highland Park, to the apartment my future roommate had found. While filling up with gasoline, a man about my age, perhaps in his early 20's, saw my North Dakota license plate, introduced himself saying he was from Fargo (ND), and invited me over to his house that evening.

It was an incredible evening learning about southern California. I was fortunate that it was only an evening of talking. Visions of Jeffrey Dahmer come to mind.

Soviet Spies Shudder -- March 26, 2018 -- The Political Page, T+26


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Trade War?

Pretty much, not. Tariffs simply bringing people together. "Dow set to surge as fears of impending trade war ease ..."

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Back to the Permian  

From Bloomberg Business via social media:
Chevron, the world’s third-largest publicly traded oil producer, is spending $3.3 billion this year in the Permian and an additional $1 billion in other shale basins. Its expansion will bolster U.S. oil output, which already exceeds 10 million barrels a day, surpassing the record set in 1970. The growth in U.S. oil production from shale is helping vault America into the lofty ranks of the globe’s premier -producers—Russia and Saudi Arabia—and could derail OPEC’s plans to lift crude prices.
Chevron is no newcomer to the Permian. The story of the Scharbauer SE71 well in Midland County, which when completed will extend about 9,000 feet down and then almost 2 miles sideways, began more than 75 years ago. In 1888, Texas & Pacific Railway Co. went belly-up and bondholders seized some of the lands the state had granted to the railroad. By the 1920s, drillers were tapping gushers in the region; one of those, Texaco, began snapping up control of former railroad rights of way, including, in 1962, the former railway acreage rights belonging to TXL Oil Corp. When Chevron bought Texaco in 2001, it inherited a treasure trove of untapped Permian riches.
Today, Chevron controls 2.2 million acres of Permian rock, an area the size of Yellowstone National Park. Even better, it pays little or no royalties on 80 percent of its holdings, boosting its profitability. (Typically, explorers must pay landowners 10 percent to 25 percent royalties.)

In stark contrast to Chevron’s inherited Permian position, rival Exxon Mobil Corp. paid about $6 billion for drilling rights in the region last year, after making its entrance into shale through the $35 billion purchase of XTO Energy Inc. in 2010. And Royal Dutch Shell Plc spent $1.9 billion in 2012 to build its Permian position.
Much more at the link. Many, many story lines in that article.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back To Polio

Jonas Salk: A Life, Charlotte DeCroes Jacobs, c. 2015.

Chapter 8: The Chosen -- the first charge -- 
tally the number of different types of poliovirus

Battle plans against polio begin; Harry Weaver's round table in 1948.

The Typing Group (as in typing the strains of polio).

Four scientists in the trenches:
  • Louis Gebhardt, University of Utah
  • Herbert Wenner, University of Kansas
  • John Kessel, University of Southern California (my alma mater)
  • Jonas Salk
To oversee the project:
  • Albert Sabin
  • David Bodian
  • Thomas Francis
NFIP's first attempt at directed group research. 

March of Dimes plays huge role.

Salk's team:
  • Salk hires a former army officer, Byron Bennett, as his research assistant
    • decorated for his work controlling typhus during the war
    • at Walter Reed Army Hospital -- demonstrated skill in field testing
  • Salk hires a senior research associate, Julius Youngner, a microbiologist
  • bacteriologist James Lewis brought experience from the drug-manufacturing world
  • four more research assistants
Typing polio
  • Brunhilde strain (Type 1)
  • Lansin straing (Type 2)
  • Salk chose Sabin's method of serum neuralization to type the virus
  • third strain identified from Los Angeles: Leon strain
  • 1950: animosity between Sabin and Salk on how to test for different strains
Need to be able to grow viruses in living cells, not just in culture media
  • 1949: John Enders, Thomas Weller, Frederick Robbins -- succeeded -- Nobel Prize (all three)
Salk figured out how to improve virus / tissue culture

1951: typing polio had been completed
  • of 196 strains tested, 161, Type 1; 20, Type 2; 15, Type 3 -- cost, 20,000 monkeys and $1.3 million
The friendship between O'Connor and Salk; Queen Mary; O'Connor becomes Salk's patron

Influenza vaccine: while working on polio, also working on influenza at Fort Dix

But eventually turned to polio as sole attention.

Chapter 9: Ready to Run -- developing the vaccine

the 1934 debacle: trials between Brodie's inactivated virus and Komer's attentuated live virus

between 1934 and 1951: no polio progress

to being the vaccine process, had to pick best strains
  • Type 1: the Mahoney strain (Thomas Francis, patient in Ohio)
  • Type 2: the MEF-1 strain (soldier, Middle East Forces)
  • Type 3: Saukett strain (Jimmy Sarkett, Municipal Hospital where Salk had worked)
  • [Why the HeLa (Henrietta Lacks) controversy is bogus.]
Salk uses formalin (a solution of formaldehyde to inactivate the virus but not its antigenciity)

 Chapter 10: Research Sub Rosa -- time to test the Salk vaccine on human subjects


Oil Production Jumps Over 30% In The Permian -- Filloon -- March 26, 2018

Update on the Permian -- Mike Filloon.  Link here. Part 2 here.

Peak oil? What peak oil? The US is on the threshold of the biggest oil and gas boom ever -- Fortune magazine.
The U.S. is set to enjoy the biggest increase in oil and gas production the world has ever seen over the next few years, according to a new report out Tuesday.
The report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based think tank, is a thumping endorsement for the shale sector’s resilience in the face of a two-year attempt by Saudi Arabia and others to squeeze it. That’s already visible in U.S. government forecasts, which say U.S. crude oil production will rise from an average of 9.2 million barrels a day this year to 9.9 million barrels a day in 2018, a new all-time high beating a record set in 1970.
The IEA said the U.S. will account for 80% of the increase in global oil supply between now and 2025, as shale producers find ever more ways to pump oil profitably even at lower prices. By the late 2020s, the U.S. will become a net exporter of oil for the first time since the 1950s.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.73→3/26/201803/26/201703/26/201603/26/201503/26/2014
Active Rigs60493299198

RBN Energy: Permain crude oil takeaway capacity maxing out? Sounds like the Bakken during the boom. A great problem to have.
Crude oil production in the Permian Basin is coming on strong — faster than midstreamers can build pipeline takeaway capacity out of the basin. You can see the consequences in price differentials.  On Friday, the spread between Midland, TX and the Magellan East Houston terminal (MEH) on the Gulf Coast hit almost $5.00/bbl, a clear sign of takeaway capacity constraints out of the Permian.
We’ve seen different variations of this scenario play out in recent years, most recently last fall, just before the first oil started flowing through the new Midland-to-Sealy and Permian Express III pipelines, and it’s not good news for Permian producers. Now Permian output is again bouncing up against the capacity of takeaway pipelines and in-region refineries to deal with it. As we’ve seen in the past, that’s a warning sign for possible price-differential blowouts. Today, we discuss the fast-changing market dynamics that put Permian producers at risk for another round of depressed Midland prices.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Early Production Numbers For The Oasis Patsy Wells In Siverston Oil Field -- March 25, 2018

This post will not be updated. The Patsy wells are tracked elsewhere.

It appears the Patsy wells have been fracked and soon to be reported.

The Patsy wells:
  • 32949, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 11-5 3XT, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 32948, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 11-5 2BX, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33078, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 6B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33077, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 5T, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33076, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 4B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33049, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 13B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33048, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 12T, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33047, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 11B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33041, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 10B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33040, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 9T, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33039, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 8B, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 33038, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 7T, Siverston, producing, see below;
  • 29167, dry, Oasis, Patsy Pow 5198 33-5, Siverston, 
  • 20689, 1,202, Oasis/Zenergy, Patsy 5-8HTF, Siverston, Three Forks Third Bench, 25 stages, 2.8 million lbs , t11/12; cum 157K 1/18; went off-line as of 9/17, suggesting that rest of wells are being completed; back on-line as of 12/17;
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Early Production Numbers

32949, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 11-5 3XT, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181115120615
12-20172390039554
11-201727856812

 32948, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 11-5 2BX, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181651431955
12-20172300535888

33078, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 6B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181881015985
12-20172176416404

 33077, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 5T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201840273775
12-2017103649553

 33076, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 4B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181341414077
12-20173221220254

33049, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 13B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20182084019137

33048, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 12T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181114231521

33047, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 11B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201877396812

 33041, SI/NC, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 10B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201886448653

33040, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 9T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181592117453
12-201780326922

 33039, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 8B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20181983617167
12-20171911218592

33038, SI/NC-->conf, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 7T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-201846853595
12-201737583400

A New Well Has Been Added To "Monster Wells" -- March 25, 2018

This well has just been added to "Monster Wells, Generation 3."
  • 19296, 2,388, SHD, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, TF Bench 1, 62 stages, 15 million lbs, t3/15; cum 622K 1/18;
Production data for this well at this link.

600K+ in less than three years.