Week 46: November 12, 2017 -- November 18, 2017

Without question, the big story of the week is the resiliency of the Bakken. There were many, many story lines.

So, where do we stand?

• North Dakota exceeded monthly production by a wider margin what the EIA forecast for monthly production, September, 2017
• North Dakota crude oil production was back up above 1.1 million bbls -- first time we've seen that since March, 2016 -- see chart of the day
• Lynn Helms suggests production should continue to increase
• there are still around 2,400 wells drilled-to-depth that are not producing: either taken off-line for operational reasons, or DUCs
• one assumes another 1,000 wells are choked back -- producing less than they might if operators wanted to open the spigots
• US crude oil production continues to surge despite cutback in CAPEX, rigs; 
• breakeven in North Dakota is $21; some spots in the Bakken, $17
• more than enough takeaway capacity
• Bakken can compete with Brent worldwide
• without the Keystone (currently northern leg shut down due to a leak) or Venezuela, US refiners could be scrambling for heavy oil
• additional commentary here

In other energy news:

• wind energy in a world of hurt
• re-balancing will take longer than expected; US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increase 

Of course, the big international energy story: Prince Salman will assume the throne this next week. Also, here.

Operations:
Month-over-month, Elm Tree adds the most wells, an astounding 12 new wells
Three to four days to drill a well in the Bakken?
EOG: king of the hogs? -- Filloon 

Bakken 2.0
Bakken learning curve driving production 
An astounding 41 permits renewed  

Bakken economy
Shooting range opens outside Williston

Sunday Morning -- November 19, 2017

From Carpe Diem (AEI), previously posted:

Mark Perry's comments:

[The chart above] shows the historic energy milestone that went mostly unnoticed this week when the EIA’s weekly petroleum report showed that daily crude oil output in the US last week at 9.62 million barrels was the highest level of domestic oil production since May 1971, more than 46 years ago. 

At the current of production increases, daily US crude oil production is on track to top 10 million barrels by as early as next February and could shortly after that exceed the previous record of 10.04M barrels per day set back in November 1970. Carpe oleum.

It should also be noted that the EIA had predicted that the Bakken would show an 8,000-bopd increase month-over-month in September; in fact, the Bakken came in at over 17,000-bopd increase month-over-month, hitting the 1.1 million-bbl-threshold for the first time since March, 2016.

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Identity Politics

From The Washington Examiner. The best part of that: Hillary not in the headline.

A headline I never thought I would see in the Los Angeles Times: Strong economy boosts Trump among otherwise skeptical voters. I won't read the story. I seldom read The LA Times any more. If a linked story interests me, I might check out LA Times, but other than that, I've quit reading it.
 
Germany in crisis: Merkel cannot form coalition government.

Production In Top Bakken Oil Fields, September, 2017, Data -- Greatest Inrease In Number Of Producing Wells In Various Fields

Disclaimer: in a spreadsheet done manually there are likely to be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. Do not quote me on this data. 

August, 2017, and September 2017, data for top producing oil fields in the Bakken. Ranked by greatest increase in number of producing wells, month-over-month, column 11.

It provides a bit of a glimpse where Bakken activity is heaviest.

Field	August 2017 Prod	August Wells	August Oil / Well / Month	Percent Change July-to-August	Change in # of wells	Sept 2017 Prod	Sept Wells	Sept Oil / Well / Month	Percent Change August-to-Sept	Change in # of wells
Elm Tree	539,798	56	9,639	-18.42%	0	631,123	68	9,281	16.92%	12
Antelope-Sanish	991,772	191	5,193	19.22%	4	1,150,969	199	5,784	16.05%	8
Heart Butte	691,068	205	3,371	15.22%	4	712,288	212	3,360	3.07%	7
Reunion Bay	605,459	167	3,626	-7.50%	0	614,282	172	3,571	1.46%	5
Keene	115,018	45	2,556	-1.15%	0	96,145	50	1,923	-16.41%	5
Alger	643,407	327	1,968	18.88%	0	601,505	330	1,823	-6.51%	3
Grail	544,335	192	2,835	-10.94%	0	562,731	195	2,886	3.38%	3
Bailey	454,902	151	3,013	6.58%	2	677,536	154	4,400	48.94%	3
Stockyard Creek	181,842	86	2,114	8.91%	1	176,921	89	1,988	-2.71%	3
Blue Buttes	880,127	182	4,836	15.64%	8	992,933	184	5,396	12.82%	2
Big Bend	447,278	125	3,578	6.22%	2	503,955	127	3,968	12.67%	2
McGregory Buttes	410,477	103	3,985	-2.54%	-1	415,679	105	3,959	1.27%	2
East Fork	320,782	119	2,696	-2.45%	0	370,577	121	3,063	15.52%	2
Bell	142,773	71	2,011	-7.66%	0	190,027	73	2,603	33.10%	2
Cow Creek	118,833	43	2,764	68.82%	3	119,378	45	2,653	0.46%	2
Willow Creek	95,320	28	3,404	4.11%	0	111,433	30	3,714	16.90%	2
Eagle Nest	670,978	102	6,578	1.56%	0	523,530	103	5,083	-21.98%	1
Bear Creek	207,429	39	5,319	50.30%	0	267,628	40	6,691	29.02%	1
Todd	169,999	63	2,698	18.24%	0	253,769	64	3,965	49.28%	1
Crazy Man Creek	130,273	48	2,714	62.08%	0	113,563	49	2,318	-12.83%	1