Suitable For Framing -- November 16, 2016

This note is for the archives. There is nothing here about the Bakken. Nothing to see here, move on. Just some rambling notes.

Life is good again.

For the six weeks prior to the election, I was so distraught I could not even watch my DVDs. I watched no television (except NASCAR and some football). But now, things are back to normal.

It is quite incredible how "uncivil" our country has become, or at least our country as portrayed by the media. When I watch this video I am struck at how "mean" / how "nasty" the "comedians" were. To see Mr Trump sit there quietly while some moron made fun of him was the reason I could not watch television any more. Everything had become so incredibly uncivil. Then, when I saw Ann Coulter in that video, my respect for her jumped a thousand-fold. I didn't care for her one way or the other six months ago, but after watching this video for the umpteenth time, I am just amazed how civil she remained despite the attitude of her colleagues and the mob-hysteria of the audience.

So, now I am back to watching my DVDs. I watched Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy last night and now I'm watching Birdman tonight. I've watched both movies more than a dozen times and never get tired of them. Not only that, I always see something I had not seen before, it seems. I can't find it now, but I think I've previously posted how I decide what movies are on my top ten list. To get on my top ten list, a movie is one I could watch seven times over seven days or something like that. Casablanca, Birdman, and Tinker, Tailor fit that definition.

I enjoyed Doctor Strange but it won't make my top ten list. It will very likely make my top 20 list.

Again, another screenshot from The Drudge Report, another screenshot suitable for framing.

From CNS News:

Republicans added to their historic 2014 gains in the nation’s state legislatures with the addition of five state House chambers and two state Senate chambers in last week’s election, while Democratic control was reduced to levels not seen since the Civil War.

Republicans are now in control of a record 67 (68 percent) of the 98 partisan state legislative chambers in the nation, more than twice the number (31) in which Democrats have a majority, according to the bipartisan National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL).

“That’s more than at any other time in the history of the Republican Party,” according to NCSL. “They also hold more total seats, well over 4,100 of the 7,383, than they have since 1920.”

Next year, the GOP will control both legislative chambers in 32 states - an all-time high, according to NCSL - while Democrats will have total control of just 13 state legislatures.

In 24 of the 32 states with Republican-controlled legislatures, voters have also elected Republican governors. In contrast, Democrats have a “political trifecta” in just six states.

This sort of gives lie to the claim that Donald Trump does not have a mandate. He literally destroyed the opposition. One has to remember he won the presidency on his own. The GOP abandoned him; Paul Ryan did not endorse him; George W Bush made a point to say that he did not vote for the GOP candidate. To say the least, I was quite appalled. On stage, during the primary debates, every GOP contender raised his right hand, pledging to support the nominee whoever it was. Ironically, only Donald Trump seemed to waffle, but in the end he, too, raised his right hand. And then, they all abandoned him. I think, if truth be known, a fair number of Democrats were more loyal to Trump than the GOP.

Thirteen Permits Renewed; Four New Permits -- November 16, 2016

Active rigs:

	11/16/2016	11/16/2015	11/16/2014	11/16/2013	11/16/2012
Active Rigs	38	63	186	183	187

Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:

• 31248, 1,272, EOG, West Clark 104-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 21 million lbs, t5/16; cum 86K 9/16;
• 31945, SI/NC, Enerplus, Fire 151-94-16DH, Clarks Creek, no production data,

Four (4) new permits:

• Operator: Statoil 
• Field: Painted Woods (Williams)
• Comments: 

Thirteen (13) permits renewed:

• CLR (5): five Jack permits in Dunn County 
• EOG (3): three Austin permits in Mountrail County
• BR (3): two Pacific Express permits and one Atlantic Express permit, all in Dunn County
• Lime Rock Resources III-A (2): two Raphael Stroh permits, Dunn County

Statoil canceled four permits:

• two Broderson wells and two Garmann wells, all in McKenzie County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30297, 1,385, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-5, Robinson Lake, t10/16; cum --
• 30298, 794, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-6, Robinson Lake, t10/16; cum --

*************************************

31945, see above, Enerplus, Fire 151-94-16DH, Clarks Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2016	14517	48082
8-2016	16000	36229
7-2016	20605	45962
6-2016	18998	44512
5-2016	15781	32027

*********************** 

The Inflation Page

If anyone can make sense of he/she is doing better than I am. From The Wall Street Journal:

The rise in Treasury yields slowed this week, highlighting skepticism in some quarters that Donald Trump’s presidency will usher in a period of rising inflation.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which falls as prices increase, fell Wednesday, following a muted rise on Tuesday, while the 30-year bond yield fell both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yields had surged since the U.S. presidential election on the view that Mr. Trump’s tenure will generate a period of rising inflation, as he pursues policies such as tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and infrastructure spending to boost economic growth.

Market-based inflation indicators were rising before Mr. Trump’s victory last week, following sharp declines earlier in 2016.

Yada, yada, yada. Then:

Some economists and businessmen wrote an open letter in 2010 warning then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that monetary stimulus would have inflationary consequences, a view that now seems thoroughly discredited.

Inflation has failed to hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target for more than four years.

The U.S. producer-price index for final demand, a measure of business prices, held flat in October compared with the prior month, data showed Wednesday. Prices were up 0.8% from a year earlier.

Yada, yada, yada. Then:

One reason one analyst thinks inflation is set to stay low is the nation’s $19.8 trillion debt load. The increase in debt stands to make each dollar go less far in spurring growth, the analyst said. From 1952 to 1999, it took about $1.70 in nonfinancial debt for gross domestic product to expand by $1. In the year through June, it took $4.90 to do the same.

The national debt could increase $5.3 trillion over a decade should Mr. Trump cut taxes and boost spending as he has said during the campaign.

Even after stimulus projects are completed, their impact on inflation isn’t necessarily positive. Improving roads and rails to make transportation more efficient can actually cut per-unit costs. He cited the New Deal package in the 1930s and the highway-construction spending of the 1950s as big stimulus measures that didn’t in their own right boost prices.

Before the election, I wrote to a friend in California, a huge Hillary supporter that I had resigned myself to a Clinton presidency. I had comes to terms with Sharia law in Detroit existing side-by-side with Judeo-Christian-based-US-constitutional law, and was no longer concerned with increasing US debt.

I guess I was half-right.

Sharia law in Detroit is yet to play itself out, but I see the Democratic party will probably nominate a Minnesota Muslim as its new head.

Whatever.

North Dakota Oil Production Falls To 31-Month Low -- September, 2016, Data

Link here.

• North Dakota’s crude oil output in September fell to the lowest level in more than two years, staying below the 1M bbl/day level for the second month in a row
• production fell 1.1% for the month to 971K bbl/day in September, the most recent month for which data is available, 10K bbl/day less than August and the lowest level since February 2014, when output was 952K bbl/day
• natural gas production in North Dakota fell 1.7% in September to 1.61B cf/day, the state also reports

Director's Cut is here.

**************************

The Culinary Page

We've all seen the articles: how difficult it is to cook for one person. Or two. Hogwash.

The "national" story I enjoyed most last night was the story in which Donald Trump and family left the press pool behind and went out to eat. As a family.

Can you imagine? All the work yesterday, putting together policies, and programs, and people, and then Don, Jr, saying, "Hey, folks, it's time for dinner. Let's take a break." Three adult children, a son-in-law, his wife, who knows who else -- after all, the press was not there to report it -- enjoying an evening at the "21 Club" in Manhattan.

I can enjoy that moment vicariously.

Years ago I had a close friendship with a woman who had never remarried after her marriage ended in divorce some forty years yearly. I talked to her about relationships. She said she could enjoy relationships vicariously. I never thought about that before. She enjoyed watching couples -- and putting a story together in her head about their circumstances.

For me, hearing about the Trumps going out to a family dinner was just as rewarding. They could have had dinner in the penthouse. But they chose to go out.

I hope Donald Trump enjoys the presidency. I hope he takes his family out for dinner often. I enjoy his lifestyle vicariously. I enjoy him because he's not a phony.

For me the Italians had it right. Pasta. After my daily bike ride I came home to an empty refrigerator. In less than fifteen minutes a huge pot of spaghetti, most of which will be saved, but with a bit of Kentucky bourbon, the spaghetti was incredible.

All those articles about how difficult it is to cook for one person. Or two. Hogwash.

How To Build "The Wall" With Mexican Money; US Crude Oil Stocks Still "Off The Chart" And Rising Fast -- November 16, 2016

The Art of Compromise, The Art of Negotiating, The Art of Solving Problems

I've always thought this story was quite amazing, from wiki:

The Compromise of 1790 was a compromise between Alexander Hamilton on the one hand and Thomas Jefferson and James Madison whereby Hamilton won the decision for the national government to take over and pay the state debts, while Jefferson and Madison obtained the national capital (District of Columbia) for the South.

The compromise resolved the deadlock in Congress.

Southerners were blocking the assumption of state debts by the treasury, thereby destroying the Hamiltonian program for building a fiscally strong nation state. Northerners rejected the proposal, much desired by Virginians, to locate the permanent national capital on the Virginia-Maryland border.

The compromise made possible the passage of the Residence and Assumption Acts in July 1790. Historian Jacob Cooke says it is, "generally regarded as one of the most important bargains in American history, ranking just below the better known Missouri Compromise and the Compromise of 1850."

The emphasis on this "deal" was the art of "compromise" and the art of "negotiating."

But there was another aspect of this story: how to solve problems. It has been said that sometimes a problem is solved by turning it into a bigger problem. In this case, Jefferson -- whether he realized it or not -- took two "smaller" problems -- a state-debt problem and a federal capital location problem and combined them into a much bigger problem. Many won't see it that way, but I've often thought about it.

Trump wants to build a wall; many oppose it. Trump wants to charge a 35% tariff on cars coming into the US manufactured in Mexico; many oppose that, especially Ford.

Now wouldn't this be interesting: host a dinner, and invite his #1 strategist Steve Bannon who wants the wall to sit across the table from Ford CEO Mark Fields who doesn't want a 35% tariff on his cars coming up from Mexico.

Taking two problems -- border security and American jobs -- and making a bigger problem: solving the two "smaller" problems simultaneously. Neither Mexico nor Ford Corp shareholders want to see a 35% tariff on imported automobiles. Trump wants border security (as do most Americans, regardless of whom they voted for).

But Trump also wants that border security paid for by private corporations and Mexico. How about this compromise: in exchange for substantial help in border security, which will require some enhanced physical barriers, why not offer to reduce/eliminate the 35% tariff threat that is on the table.

Other corporations that might want to be asked to help Ford and Mexico pay for the enhanced physical barriers:

• MDU (think CEMEX)
• SRE  
• GM 
• Google, Amazon, Yahoo: in return for expedited review of visas for software engineers

****************************** 

The Glut Grows

***********************************

New Williston High School Gymnasium Has A New Name

Named after Jon Cole; the school board unanimously approved the name -- and the great thing -- Jon Cole is still here to accept the honor.

For the past 35 years, student athletes experienced wins and losses, but they could expect one constant — an interview with Jon Cole.

“Williston has an unbelievable sports tradition and to think that they would put your name on a brand new gym, it’s just so surprising,” Cole said, after receiving news that his love for the community would immortalize him on the walls of the new high school.

“This is one of the greatest honors I can ever have in my life.”

The North Dakota Sportscasters and Sportswriters Hall of Fame inductee has been a staple within the community since 1981 and has been almost as prominent as the rule book.

It really is an incredible honor. The "old" Williston High School fieldhouse was named after Phil Jackson, if memory serves me well. 

The End Of The Line -- November 16, 2016

Link here.

The Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee have launched a probe into tax incentives paid to solar companies, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

The committee probes, led by their respective Republican chairmen, Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas and Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, have found an appropriate and disturbing target to begin this work. SolarCity, a solar installation company set to be purchased by Tesla Motors Inc., is one of the seven companies named in the initial investigation.

Already grossly subsidized, Musk’s SolarCity has become an albatross of waste, fraud, and abuse of tax payer dollars. As legitimate earnings and cash become even scarcer for SolarCity, its entanglement in the Tesla empire suggests that a drastic reckoning not only is imminent, but in fact emboldening Musk to become more outlandish and reckless.

So many songs to choose from. The finalists were "with a little help from my friends" and "the end of the line." But something new. This is the extended version, available only in the UK, apparently:

The End Of The Line, The Traveling Wilburys
Tesla shares have seen a huge drop in the past month:

• October 27, 2016: $204
• November 8, 2016: $195 -- Tuesday, election day
• November 9, 2016: $190 -- Wednesday, Trump declared the winner
• November 16, 2016: $183