Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Two More DUCs In The Bakken; Quiet Daily Report -- May 24, 2016

Five (5) more permits --
  • Operators: BR (3), EOG (2)
  • Fields: Blue Buttes (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Active rigs:


5/24/201605/24/201505/24/201405/24/201305/24/2012
Active Rigs2882191185214

Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 31223, SI/NC, XTO, Harley Federal 24X-15F, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 31837, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 21X-17AXD, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 32226, loc, Hess, EN-Ruud-LE-154-93-2734H-1, Robinson Lake,
No wells coming off confidential list Wednesday.

Slawson renewed fifteen (15) permits:
  • ten of them were Torpedo Federal wells, in Mountrail County
  • four of them were Serpent Federal wells, in Mountrail County
  • one was a Rebel Federal well, also in Mountrail County
Resource Energy canceled one permit, an Angvick permit in Divide County.

Three (3) producing wells were completed:
  • 30412, 2,684, Slawson, Lightning Federal 6-24-13TFH, Big Bend, t4/16; cum --
  • 30413, 1,008, Slawson, Lightning Federal 2-24-13H, Big Bend, t4/16; cum --
  • 30414, 1,622, Slawson, Lightning Federal 7-24-13TFH, Big Bend, t4/16; cum --

Flashback -- May 23, 2016

President Obama's trip to Hiroshima and Vietnam.

99 Luftballoons, Nena

Feel Like I'm Fixin' To Die, Country Joe McDonald

Wow! Fires Still Burning And Question Is Being Raised If More Takeaway Capacity Needed As OIl Workers Return To Canadian Oil Sands

Active rigs:


5/24/201605/24/201505/24/201405/24/201305/24/2012
Active Rigs2882191185214

RBN Energy: will the oil sands need more takeaway capacity?
Production in Alberta’s oil sands region is gradually rebounding after devastating wildfires that forced output scale-backs and temporary shutdowns of some production facilities, terminals and pipelines. It may be a while before life—and production—in the oil sands are back to normal, but Canada’s National Energy Board, producers and others expect the region’s output to continue to rise (if only gradually) the next few years, reflecting long-term oil sands expansion projects committed to when oil prices were more than double what they are today. There are very different views, though, about whether the oil sands will eventually need more takeaway capacity in the form of new or expanded pipelines. Today, we continue our look at the oil sands post-wildfires with a review of existing and proposed pipeline capacity.
Wildfires are notoriously unpredictable and, sure enough, as soon as the worst seemed to be over in the Fort McMurray, AB area, new flare-ups in mid-May threatened oil sands production areas north of the city. Thanks to heroic efforts by Alberta fire crews, no production area has experienced any significant damage (so far at least—fingers crossed), but a few work camps have been destroyed or damaged, and will need to be rebuilt. Good news is trickling in though, such as Imperial Oil’s May 19 announcement that it has restarted limited operations at its Kearl oil sands site. If, as everyone hopes, the wildfires are brought under control within the next few days, it seems likely that oil sands production will ramp up gradually over the next few weeks, and that by mid-summer Alberta’s output might be close to the 3.1 MMb/d that the province was producing before the fires were sparked.
This tells me two things:
  • even at $45 oil, Canadian oil sands economical for some
  • amazing ability of oil E & P to recover under most adverse conditions

Monday, May 23, 2016

OPEC's Death Knell -- May 23, 2016

Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting:
Saudi Arabia, one of the founders of OPEC, is sounding the group’s death knell.

The world’s biggest crude exporter has already undermined OPEC’s traditional role of managing supply, instead choosing to boost output to snatch market share from higher-cost producers, particularly U.S. shale drillers, and crashing prices in the process.

Now, under the economic plan known as Vision 2030 promoted by the king’s powerful son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the government is signaling it wants to wean the kingdom’s economy off oil revenue, lessening the need to manage prices. Moreover, the planned privatization of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. will make the nation the only member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries without full ownership of its national oil company.

“The main take-away from Saudi Vision 2030 is that there’s just no role for OPEC,” Seth Kleinman, head of European energy research at Citigroup Inc. in London, said by phone on May 16. “Or, you can have an OPEC without Saudi Arabia, which just isn’t much of an OPEC.”

The first change of oil ministers in more than 20 years may also recast the country’s relationship with OPEC. The group’s 13 members, which contribute about 40 percent of the world’s supply, gather in Vienna on June 2.
Regular readers know my thoughts about OPEC.

Over at "big stories," the Saudi-OPEC myth. 

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The Apple Page: No Shortage This Time Around?

Macrumors is reporting:
Directly contradicting a previous claim of projected weak demand for the iPhone 7, Apple has reportedly asked its Asian suppliers to prepare for the highest iPhone production target in "about two years."

Apple has requested between 72-78 million units of the new iPhone, which is much higher than the 65 million handsets that Wall Street analysts previously predicted.

Canadian Oil Sands Producers Already Bringing Workers Back In -- May 23, 2016

Link here.

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Spring Has Finally Arrived 

80 degrees at 10:00 p.m. Finally.

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Homes

I've probably lived in thirty different places over the years, moving every one to three years in the USAF, plus the years in undergraduate and then graduate school.

I can unequivocally say that the apartment we are currently in is perhaps the "best" place I have ever lived. I love it.

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Entertainment Tonight

The DVD Woodstock: Three Days of Peace & Music. I can compare it to Monterey Pop Festival. The former, 1969; the latter, 1968. 

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Cosmos Sapiens

As mentioned earlier, I continue to enjoy John Hands Cosmos Sapiens, c. 2015, first published, 2016.

John Hands is clearly in the same camp as the authors of The Privileged Planet though I doubt he would want to admit that. The authors of The Privileged Planet and John Hands all seem to agree that from the time of the Big Bang (if that did indeed occur) to the rise of humans, an infinite number of things had to have happened "just right."

John Hands said he was born and raised a Catholic; he became an atheist and now says he's agnostic. The more one reads of his book, the more difficult it is to accept that he is "simply" an agnostic. One gets the feeling he is an unwilling agnostic. Sort of like the folks who will end up voting for Hillary.

Starting on page 132, at the bottom of the page, John Hands delves into several "coincidences" that had to occur for life to begin.
One element deemed essential to humans and all known forms of life is carbon, more specifically the stable isotope carbon-12. But as Hoyle pointed out, three parameters must be highly tuned for sufficient carbon-12 to be produced in stars.
The author then provides the two nuclear-chemical equations that were required. The first was the fusion of two helium molecules to form beryllium. The second was a molecule of beryllium and a molecule of helium fusing to form carbon-12.

For these reactions to proceed three conditions must be fulfilled:
  1. The lifetime of Be-8 (about 10^17 seconds) must be sufficiently long compared with the He-4 + He-4 collision time (about 10^21 seconds) to allow the first reaction to occur, but it must not be so stable that the chain of reactions stops here; it is.
  2. Fred Hoyle predicted that the yield of carbon would be negligible unless the reactions were resonant, with the vital resonance level of the carbon-12 nuclear lying near 7.7 MeV. A resonance in nuclear fusion is an energy peak at which the reaction is maximally efficient. Experimenters later confirmed that the resonance level of carbon-12 nucleus is 7.6549 MeV. This lies just above the 7.3667 MeV energy needed to fuse helium-4 and beryllium-8 and so enables this reaction to proceed.
  3. The fusion of carbon-12 with another helium-4 nucleus would produce an oxygen nucleus. However, oxygen-16 nucleus has an energy level at 7.1187 MeV. This lies just below the total energy of carbon-12 + helium-4 at 7.1616 MeV. If it had been higher, then nearly all of the carbon would have been rapidly removed from stellar interiors by conversion into oxygen.
At the end of each chapter, Hands provides his conclusions. In this case, this is his fourth of five conclusions:
Though necessary, even the conservation principles and quantum theory are not sufficient to explain how the complex organic molecules, of which we and known forms of life consist, evolved. If the values of three nuclear parameters (as noted above) were slightly different, insufficient carbon would have been generated in stars to produce organic molecules; if the values of two dimensionless constants -- the fine-structure constant and the proton-to-electron mass ratio -- were slightly different, no atoms or molecules at all would have been formed. No theory explains why these parameters have the values they do.
Others have noted the same thing.

One gets the feeling that John Hands is having trouble "believing" that all this "just happened" to work out. 

Just saying.