Friday, April 22, 2016

Halo Effect? You Betcha -- April 22, 2016

Updates

May 10, 2017: after having looked at many other wells, I have to re-think this one. When there is a jump in production this great, it's hard to call it a halo effect; it almost has to be the result of a re-frack. In this case there is no sundry form saying this well has been re-fracked and there is no FracFocus report of a frack in 2014; by 2014, frack reporting was mandatory. The file report does say that this well as put on SI (shut-in) status while neighboring wells were being fracked but did not say that this well also being fracked. The neighboring wells being fracked by another operator. 

So, this is the conundrum: the jump in production is so high, one has to conclude it was re-fracked but no one has written in to tell me that the well was re-fracked and there is no report suggesting it has been refracked.
 
Original Post
Here's the relevant production profile:


Typical production / month was around 4,000 bbls of oil/month, prior to October, 2014. Then it jumped to 16,367 bbls in November, 2014.

The well?
  • 20510, 705, Zavanna, Everett 115H, Stockyard Creek, t1/12; cum 236K 2/16; off-line since December, 2015;
There were two other middle Bakken wells that intersected this well, and were fracked in September, 2014.   

The interesting thing is that #20510 was a Zavanna well; the wells that intersected this well were Slawson wells.

****************************
Earth Day, 1970: Predictions

Four predictions:
  • the civilized world would end in three decades -- Nobel laureate George Wald.
  • England would be hit by food shortage; civilization would collapse -- Paul Ehrlich, author of The Population Bomb
  • gas masks would be required in cities, due to pollution -- Life Magazine
  • the world's supply of oil would run out -- Kenneth Watt, an ecologist
I'm serious: was there any prediction in 1970 that panned out?

We need to jail global warming skeptics -- Bill Nye, the science guy.

******************************

Taxi, Henry Chapin
If not the best song ever, it's on the top ten list.

Week 16: April 17, 2016 -- April 23, 2016

The Bakken
Just how incredible is the Bakken?
Get ready for "fast and furious" -- Lynn Helms

Operations
Sinclair has a slew of new permits
Rocky Ridge - Fritz 1 permitted for re-entry
New post-boom low: 28 active rigs
Top 20 oil fields in North Dakota

Fracking
Mike Filloon's update: focus on proppant  

Miscellaneous
Gasoline demand on glide path to set all-time record
Saudi Arabia takes out $10 billion loan -- to learn how to do it
Doha -- underwhelming

Sinclair Adds Three (3) More Permits -- April 22, 2016

Active rigs:


4/22/201604/22/201504/22/201404/22/201304/22/2012
Active Rigs2988187186210

Sinclair has three (3) new permits --
Five (5) permits renewed:
  • HRC (2), two Ann H. Thome permits, both in Williams County
  • Lime Rock (2), two State Dvorak permits in Dunn County
  • Ballard, a Nelson permit in Bottineau County
Samson Resources cancelled three permits: two Beetle permits and a Charger permit, all three in Divide County

Reality Of Life -- Minimum Wage At UC Berkeley -- April 22, 2016

Reason #235 why I love to blog:
Back on October 31, 2015, I posted:
Saturday mornings in north Texas belong to "other" breakfast restaurants, but we seldom go any more: the lines are way too long, and the waits are upwards of 90 minutes. Yes, the Texas breakfasts are that good. But now McDonald's has added a new wrinkle.

Something tells me that we will be reading articles at the end of this business quarter about the decision made by McDonald's to offer breakfast all day long.

It's very possible someone is going to look like a genius.

It would have been fun to sit in on the focus groups and the PowerPoint Presentations when the idea of "all-day breakfast" was being pitched at McDonald's.
Now this, today, from Yahoo!Finance:
McDonald's just reported quarterly sales that beat analysts' expectations.
In the US, first quarter comparable sales increased 5.4%, fueled by the ongoing popularity of All Day Breakfast and the introduction of McPick 2 - a branded national value platform.
Analysts were looking for a more modest 4.4% gain in comparable sales, which represents sales growth in stores open for more than a year.
McDonald's fans' wish for breakfast served all day came true last fall. While this has been disruptive for the competition (and some franchisees), it has been a hit with customers. And McDonald's numbers show it. 
***********************************
UC Berkeley School of Hard Knocks MBA

Investor's Business Daily is reporting:
Hundreds of employees at the University of California at Berkeley are getting schooled in basic economics, as the $15 minimum wage just cost them their jobs. Too bad liberal elites “fighting for $15” don’t get it.

A week after California Gov. Jerry Brown signed the state’s $15 minimum wage boost into law, UC Berkeley Chancellor Nicholas Dirks sent a memo to employees announcing that 500 jobs were getting cut.

Coincidence? Not really.

Last year, University of California President Janet Napolitano announced plans to boost its minimum wage to $15 at the start of next school year, independent of the state law. Since UC Berkeley was already in financial trouble — it ran a $109 million deficit last year and is projecting a deficit of $150 million this year — number crunchers there had to have factored in the higher mandated wage when making their layoff decisions.

Those workers might want to have a chat with the folks at UC Berkeley’s Center for Labor Research, who just days before Brown signed the wage-hike bill released a study touting the minimum wage as a boon to low-income household breadwinners.

After that report came out, Ken Jacobs, chairman of the UC Berkeley center, told the Los Angeles Times, “This is a very big deal for low-wage workers in California, for their families and for their children.”
One thing is missing from this article. The expectation from management is this: if you were making $7.50/hour and now you are making $15/hour, you will be expected to do more.

And, oh, by the way, your social security tax and your income tax withholding will also increase. But, on paper, at least, you are making $15/hour.

*****************************
ObamaCare And Part-Time Work

We've blogged about this from the very beginning. Nice to see it's being validated.

From AEI:
And, we still think that the employer mandate to provide health insurance for full-time workers in the Affordable Care Act caused some of the increase in involuntary part-time work. …
In a note last year, we pointed out that the shift strikingly coincided with the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which included an employer mandate to provide health insurance to employees working 30 or more hours per week. As shown in Figure 3 at the link, passage of the ACA preceded a large and unprecedented shift from workers working more than 30 hours per week to just under 30 hours. We continue to believe that the ACA can explain a significant number of the “extra” involuntary part-time workers.

Minimizing Production -- April 22, 2016

In addition to DUCs and completed wells being taken off-line, we also have great wells that are being "shut-back" (or whatever word one uses). For example, note this great well:
  •  29060, 1,933, XTO, Amundson 34X-22C, Siverston, t7/15; cum 55K 2/16;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20163119611375348560616893878
BAKKEN1-20161557386996272514131140780
BAKKEN12-2015311462014100320536158360820
BAKKEN11-201530155561537930183439133843481
BAKKEN10-20151892078627213236406339942344
BAKKEN9-20156336633843801828954992740
BAKKEN8-2015014220000
BAKKEN7-20158545750182657994627017184

Just one of many, many examples. I don't know if Lynn Helms consider wells like these part of the 1,500 wells estimated to be "inactive."

This obviously affects statistics in the Bakken across the board.