Thursday, January 7, 2016

Great Jobs Report Coming Out Today -- January 7, 2016

Natural gas fill rate (a dynamic link): a remarkable -113. Despite the "remarkable" draw, US stores of natural gas still exceed the maximum reported in the past five years at this same point in time.


Active rigs:


1/7/201601/07/201501/07/201401/07/201301/07/2012
Active Rigs57166189180200

RBN Energy: It’s Warm Outside – But Natural Gas Demand Has Some Underlying Growth This Winter.

Jobs: link here --
US initial jobless claims is at a current level of 277,000, a decrease of 10,000 or 3.48% from last week. This is a decrease of 16,000 or 5.46% from last year and is lower than the long term average of 36,0203.
The 4-week moving average was 275,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 277,000.
Meanwhile, job growth in December (2015) "ballooned." From USNews:
December was not a good month for manufacturing. But job creation in most other industries helped December become the best month for employment growth throughout 2015, according to a preliminary private-sector jobs report.
The ADP National Employment Report, which was released Wednesday and generally precedes the government's more intensive jobs and unemployment numbers to be released Friday, showed U.S. payrolls ballooned by 257,000 positions last month.
That makes December the best month for job gains since Dec. 2014.
California's economy looks stronger than ever. From the Los Angeles Times:
The governor’s budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1 is widely expected to project another dose of growth in tax revenues, as recent estimates show the California economy still growing and personal income taxes -- the main source of state spending -- at better than expected levels.
A November report from the Legislature’s fiscal analysts projected another strong year of tax revenues, and the potential of a $7.2 billion rainy-day budget reserve by 2017. Brown has consistently demanded a more fiscally cautious plan than Democratic legislative leaders, who have urged more spending on health and human services programs that were cut back during the depth of the recession.
 Minnesota's economy is apparently doing well. From an old story, back in mid-2015, as reported at CNBC:
Minnesota is America's Top State for Business in 2015, reaching the pinnacle of success by way of a much different route than our eight previous winners.
Minnesota scores 1,584 out of a possible 2,500 points, ranking in the top half for all but two of our 10 categories of competitiveness. But what may be most instructive are the categories where Minnesota does not do well. Both involve cost.
Indeed, the birthplace of Spam, Scotch Tape and the supercomputer marks a new first this year. Never since we began rating the states in 2007 has a high-tax, high-wage, union-friendly state made it to the top of our rankings. But Minnesota does so well in so many other areas—like education and quality of life—that its cost disadvantages fade away.
And for those worried about Obama's executive action on "gun control" (an oxymoron in Baltimore), the reports coming out of Texas:
  • they are having no adverse effect on gun sales or gun classes in Texas (both continue to increase); if anything gun sales and classes will increase; number of women enrolled in gun glasses has increased 300% over the past year or so
  • the "new" Obama directives are already found in ATF rules and regulations
  • in Texas, the "gun show loophole" is a myth; it was corrected years ago
  • "open carry law" went into effect without incident
SolarCity to "quit" Nevada. The Denverpost.com reports:
Elon Musk's SolarCity Corp. plans to eliminate more than 550 jobs in Nevada, most of its employees in the state, after regulators approved new utility fees on solar rooftops.
The biggest U.S. rooftop solar provider will relocate some employees to "business-friendly" states that don't impose similar charges, San Mateo, CA-based SolarCity said in a statement Wednesday.
This is the first significant cut in staffing for SolarCity, which has grown rapidly in recent years. Surging demand for rooftop power has led to friction between companies that install and operate the systems and traditional utilities, which see them as a threat to revenue.
SolarCity announced plans to stop sales and installation in Nevada on December 23, 2015, a day after regulators approved changes to the state's net-metering program, one of the main incentives for rooftop solar power.
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Notes to the Granddaughters

Thank goodness for Matt Drudge. Had it not been for the Drudge Report, I probably would not have seen this story: black pudding hailed as a "superfood" in Britain.
Made out of pig's blood, pork fat and oatmeal, black pudding might seem an unlikely candidate for the shelves of Britain's health food aisles.
But the breakfast staple, considered a delicacy in northwest England and the west Midlands, is the surprise inclusion on a list of superfoods to watch in 2016 produced by MuscleFood, a nutritional food retailer.
The crumbly blood sausage, traditionally served with hearty favourites like bacon and fried egg, contains high levels of protein, iron, calcium and zinc. "2015 saw healthy eating reach a new level and this year we predict this trend is only going to get bigger," British media quoted Darren Beale of MuscleFood as saying. 
In the picture at the link you will see store signs advertising "Bury Black Pudding." From wiki:
n the United Kingdom, black pudding is considered a delicacy in the Black Country, the West Midlands, Stornoway, the North West, and especially in Lancashire (in towns such as Bury), where it is traditionally boiled and served with malt vinegar out of paper wrapping.

The Stornoway black pudding, made on the Western Isles of Scotland, has been granted Protected Geographical Indicator of Origin status.

It's very possible I had Stornoway black pudding, but I do not recall. 

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Four (4) New Permits; Fourteen (14) Producing Wells Completed -- January 6, 2016

Taken off-line 11/15:
  • 19296, 2,388, SHD, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, t3/15; cum 233K 10/15; off-line as of 11/15; most likely this is in preparation for / as part of the plan to build a central tank battery on the 4-well Golden pad (see graphic below the production profile), or even more likely, they are getting ready to frack the other 3 wells on this pad:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20150000000
BAKKEN10-20153121570214203090116005016005
BAKKEN9-20152913597137312773810789010789
BAKKEN8-20153117615172371247435799035799
BAKKEN7-20153118846184162925013299013299
BAKKEN6-201530214522059729348146377612971
BAKKEN5-2015312754527019403071761015838129
BAKKEN4-20153030953298964622621505167763139
BAKKEN3-20153150914483486872839880218936048
BAKKEN2-20152330105295027034623000023000


The other three wells:
  • 31109, conf, SHD, Charging Wildcat 22-31H, API: 33-055-00182, not fracked acc. to FracFocus;
  • 31110, conf, SHD, War Eagle 22-31H, API: 33-055-00183, not fracked acc. to FracFocus;
  • 31111, conf, SHD, Luke Neset 22-31H, API: 33-055-00184, not fracked acc. to FracFocus;
****************************************
Active rigs:


1/6/201601/06/201501/06/201401/06/201301/06/2012
Active Rigs57169186179198

Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:
  • 28966, 947, Hess, LK-Quilliam-147-97-1423H-3, Little Knife, t12/15; cum --
  • 30287, 951, QEP, Dailey 6-12-13BH, Spotted Horn, t7/15; cum 86K 11/15; only 10 days in 11/15;
  • 30288, 2,067, QEP, Dailey 4-12-13T2H, Spotted Horn, t7/15; cum 16K 11/15; on-line only 11 days for past four months;
  • 30289, 2,197, QEP, Dailey 7-12-13BH, Spotted Horn, t7/15; cum 61K 11/15; on-line only 37 days last three months;
  • 30290, 1,888, QEP, Dailey 4-12-13TH, Spotted Horn, t7/15; cum 34K 11/15; on-line only 52 days last four months;
  • 30291, 2,463, QEP, Dailey 12-11LL, Spotted Horn, t7/15; cum 85K 11/15;
  • 31165, SI/NC, Abraxas, Stenehjem 13H, North Fork, no production data,
  • 31372, SI/NC, XTO, Sara 41X-13D, Grinnell, no production data,
**************************************** 

30291, see above, QEP, Dailey 12-11LL, Spotted Horn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2015107787442
10-2015142269086
9-20152027217111
8-20153209639223
7-201569748213

30290, see above, QEP, Dailey 4-12-13TH, Spotted Horn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201522652335
10-201547702373
9-201577985583
8-20151274431164
7-2015579816710

30289, see above, QEP, Dailey 7-12-13BH, Spotted Horn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201520972073
10-201588924420
9-201558803926
8-20152613423027
7-20151771311509

30288, see above, QEP, Dailey 4-12-13T2H, Spotted Horn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201512251033
9-2015160
8-201517351029
7-2015131388801

30287, see above, QEP, Dailey 6-12-13BH, Spotted Horn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-201544124214
10-2015203769942
9-20153036721042
8-20152914319643
7-20151335408

*****************************************

Four (4) new permits --
  • Operators: SM (2), MRO, HRC,
  • Fields: Skabo (Divide), Moraine (Divide), Lost Bridge (Dunn), Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Five (5) permits renewed --
  • Triangle, 3, for three Lee wells in McKenzie County
  • MRO, 2, for a Mathias and for a Coan well, both in Dunn County
Fourteen (14) producing wells completed:
  • 29390, 1,067, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34x-14C, Bear Den, t10/15; cum 8K 11/15 after 13 days;
  • 29389, 1,045, XTO,  Johnsrud Federal 34X-14G, Bear Den, t10/15; cum 3K 11/15 after 4 days;
  • 29392, 614, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14D, Bear Den, t11/15; cum 2K 11/15 after 5 days;
  • 30041, 2,240, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 43X-5G, Lost Bridge, t11/15; cum 8K after 5 days;
  • 30043, 2,238, XTO, Deep Creek Federal 43X-5H, Lost Bridge, t12/15; cum --
  • 27628, 701, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-1, Baskin, t12/15;  cum -
  • 30166, 1,134, Hess, AN-Prosser-152-95-1102H-9, Antelope, Sanish pool, t12/15; cum --
  • 30672, 565, Hess, BL-Odebaard-156-95-2116H-6, Beaver Lodge, t12/15; cum --
  • 28967, 834, Hess, LK-Quilliam-147-97-1423H-2, Little Knife, t12/15; cum --
  • 30057, 499, SM Energy, Whitney 3-26HN, West Ambrose, t12/15; cum --
  • 30056, 357, SM Energy, Jessica 3B-26HN, West Ambrose, t12/15; cum --
  • 30055, 508, SM Energy, Ashley 3-26HS, West Ambrose, t12/15; cum 4K after 9 days;
  • 30054, 281, SM Energy, Rilye 3B-26HS, West Ambrose, t12/15; cum --
  • 30066, 477, SM Energy, Norma 1B-26HS, West Ambrose, t12/15; cum 5K after 18 days;

Ford EV Sales Are Posted -- January 6, 2016; EV Buyers Are Paying Up For Luxury

Link here. The original December car sales blog was posted here.

It appears folks are "paying up" for luxury when buying EVs. Compare two numbers:
  • the jump in sales month-over-month for BMW, December-over-November, 2015
  • the numbers for the first half of the year with the numbers for the second half of the year for the Chevy Volt

I'm not impressed with Tesla, for any number of reasons. For one thing, these are "deliveries," not sales, as far as I know. I could be wrong on that -- but the "rounded numbers" certainly support the feeling that these are "fed" numbers and not actual sales. For example, the Nissan Leaf reports 17,269 EVs for the year, a pretty exact number. Meanwhile, Tesla reports 25,700 vehicles.

EV buyers are "paying up" for luxury:
  • Note Chevrolet Volt: a huge increase in sales in December compared to January, but over the most recent three months, fairly flat.
  • On the other hand, BMW sales surged in December, month-over-month, and it was really evident in the high end BMW i8, from 118 in November, to 656 in December. Lots of Christmas gifts. 
  • Cadillac EV sales more than double (not in graph above; see link to source).
  • Ford was the last to post their EV sales for December. Very, very nice numbers, but essentially flat over the year. Yes, there is an increase, but for the 30-second sound bit, "about flat."
  • One last thought: the 13,000 BMW's reported were actually "sold," compared to the much more talked-about Tesla at 25,000 which were "delivered."

Hit A Wall -- January 6, 2016

It happens periodically, probably about every ten to twenty days when I literally hit a wall. There is so much information coming out today that needs commentary and I cannot keep up. I may or may not post much of substance the rest of today. At a minimum, I will post the usual data but I may not get to commentaries and more in-depth posts until late tonight or maybe even later this week.

Posts may be short with plans to come back to them later.

*************************
Not Ready For Prime Time
Idle Chatter

This and $1.98 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. No, not true. Starbucks would require the full $2.00. 

Based on several observations over the past year regarding fire sales in the Bakken, buyers are getting Bakken acreage for about 10% of what that acreage sold for during the boom. In other words, during the peak of the Bakken boom (2010 - 2013, maybe even going into mid-2014), a Bakken mineral acre changed hands for 10x what it is changing hands for in the past year.  For example, a Bakken acre that sold for $4,000 acre in 2012 is now going for $400/acre.

A Bakken acre that sold for $40,000 in 2012 is now going for $4,000/acre.

Before 2007, there really wasn't much known about the Bakken by the layperson. By 2012, anyone paying attention should have had a pretty good idea what the Bakken was able to produce. However, it appears that what the layperson knew about Bakken potential in 2012 was significantly lower than what the Bakken potential now appears to be, based on the results of some recent wells. Back in 2007, a lot of Bakken wells were drilled as wildcats. Today, there are "no" wildcats in the Bakken. 

This is just my two cents worth. It's based on minimal information. I have no background in finance or the oil and gas industry. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on these comments. If this information is important to you, go to the source.  

Samson Oil & Gas Acquires Property In The Bakken -- January 6, 2016

Link here.

I'll let others do the math first but I will come back to this later. I will have two more examples.