Japan's Gasoline Shipments Rise To A Multi-Year High; B is For Biden -- August 19, 2015

Tweeting now and the story over at Platts:

Japan's gasoline shipments rose to a multi-year high of over 1 million b/d in mid-August as demand rose due to a heat wave and low pump prices. 

Gasoline shipments were at a two-year high of 1.1 million b/d in the week to August 15, according to industry estimates based on oil product stocks, production and export data released by the Petroleum Association of Japan Wednesday. 

 Shipments for the week ended August 15 were was up 27.5% year on year. 

Really? Gasoline for air conditioning? Low pump prices? See "crack cocaine and heroin" solution.

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B Is For Biden

To save his legacy (whatever legacy that might be), President Obama needs an Obama-lite to follow him in the presidency. That "should have been" Hillary Clinton, had that worked out. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama went golfing this past weekend. I'm sure they both had the same subject in mind. It's looking more and more like Hillary won't be the one to insure Obama's legacy.

Today at my daughter's home I saw one of those little signs one buys at novelty shops: "Life is all about Plan B."

Joe Biden is Plan B.

Hyperbole? NPR is now picking up on the story, even if The New York Times is not.

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Denver Sets Record Low

Link here:

The mercury dipped to 47 degrees this morning at Denver International Airport, sett a record low for Aug. 19. The previous record of 48 was set three times, in 2002, 1967 and 1960.

Major Permit Numbering Problem Over At NDIC -- August 19, 2015

Updates

August 27, 2015: the error has been corrected. 

August 24, 2015: It appears the NDIC permit numbering error as noted below has been cleared up. As expected, the duplicate permit numbers remain EOG Austin wells in Parshall oil field, and the CLR Corsican permits in the same field (duplicate permit numbers) on the GIS map server have simply disappeared.

Original Post 

In today's daily activity report, eight EOG permits have the same numbers (#31821 - #31828) as CLR Corsican Federal permits that were issued Monday (August 17, 2015) -- based on scout tickets; they were never in a daily activity report. It will be remembered that NDIC said there were no permits issued on Friday, August 14, 2015, despite the fact that the scout ticket sequence suggested thirteen (13) permits had been issued. Five of those permits showed up on Monday, but the eight CLR Corsican Federal permits have not shown up on a daily activity report yet.

However, on the GIS map server, the CLR Corsican Federal permits show up (#31821 - #31828, inclusive) but on the scout tickets, they are now EOG Austin permits.

My hunch is that the CLR Corsican Federal permits, #31821 - #31828, will disappear and will re-appear with new numbers.

This will not affect readers in general, but it will cause confusion among those of us who track permit numbers.

Bottom line: right now, there are duplicates of these permit numbers, #31821 - #31828 (8 permits). On the daily activity report for August 19, 2015, they show up as EOG Austin permits; on the GIS map server, they show up as Corsican Federal permits. The EOG Austin permits are in the Parshall oil field; the Corsican Federal permits are also in the Sanish oil field.

In addition, not seen before, the daily activity report for today for new permits has a break in permit numbers. There are eight permits, #31821 - #31828, inclusive; then a break in sequence, and then three more permits, #31834 - #31836, inclusive.

The individual normally responsible for inputting new permits must be on vacation.

Note: I often make mistakes and I may be misreading something here. Time will tell. If this information is important to you, go to the source. Do not trust my data.

Mercedes Dumps Tesla; Will Beat Tesla At Its Own Automotive Game; Audi To Challenge Tesla -- August 19, 2015

Updates

August 26, 2015: the trouble with Elon Musk, over at The Coyote Blog. 

August 21, 2015: it's very possible TeslaBattery's biggest competitor will be Apple when it's all said and done. I doubt the average person knows how deeply involved Apple is with battery technology. Inadequate batteries drove Steve Jobs nuts; seldom reported. This should really scare Tesla: Apple and Mercedes may partner. This comes out just days after it was announced that Mercedes dumps Tesla. My hunch is that Mercedes saw something with regard to Elon Musk or Tesla that truly bothered them, and they thought it was time to get out. Macrumors is reporting:

Amid rumors that Apple is working on a top-secret automotive project ranging from its own electric car to a CarPlay-related technology platform for vehicles, Mercedes-Benz parent company Daimler AG remains open to "different types" of cooperation with Apple, reports Reuters.

Later, 6:41 p.m. Central Time: wow, that didn't take long. Literally, just minutes after posting the link/note below, I run across this note/link from The Drudge Report: Audi to unveil 310-mile electric SUV to rival Tesla Model X.

The problem with Tesla, among a number of other things, it did not have a very big moat. With regard to building cars, it had no moat: there are a dozen automobile manufacturers selling a lot more cars than Tesla. With regard to batteries, it had no moat: Panasonic, among others, have been working on batteries for a long, long time. This house of cards is about to fall.

Note: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decision based on what you read here. The problem I have with Tesla is this: scam.
 

Original Post

 

Regular readers know my feelings about Tesla. Here's a new report that raises the question -- what does Mercedes know that the rest of us don't know. From Seeking Alpha, first the summary:

• Auto Motor Und Sport, the leading German auto magazine, reports that Mercedes will stop buying Tesla powertrain components - batteries, motors, etc;
• Tesla's recent 10-Q and 10-K filings provide numbers that help an investor quantify the financial impact to Tesla of lost sales to Mercedes;
• adding insult to injury, the article also says that this new all-electric Mercedes will get approximately 310 miles of range;
• the timing of this new all-electric Mercedes is uncertain, but is unlikely to arrive in US dealerships in the next 12 months; and,
• for Tesla to lose its Mercedes revenue, and to gain a new long-range electric car competitor, is not a positive incremental investment development. 

It will be interesting to watch TSLA over the next few days.

Note: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

Archived.  

NIne (9) Producing Wells Completed; Eleven (11) New Permits, North Dakota -- August 19, 2015

Active rigs:

	8/19/2015	08/19/2014	08/19/2013	08/19/2012	08/19/2011
Active Rigs	74	192	183	199	193

Wells coming off the confidential list Thursday:

• 29159, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-7, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 29170, A, CLR, Nordeng 2-5H1, Elidah, producing, no test date;

Eleven (11) new permits --

• Operators: EOG (8), Whiting (3)
• Fields: Parshall (Mountrail), Truax (Williams)
• Comments: the EOG permits appear to be for three multi-well pads in Parshall oil field; the CLR wells will be Evitt wells in section 12-154-98

Whiting renewed five permits, including an Iver & Minnie permit in Stark County, and four Moccasin Creek permits in Dunn County.

Statoil canceled five permits: three Albert B wells in McKenzie County, and two M. Macklin permits in Williams County; BR canceled on McRansom well in McKenzie County.

Nine (9) producing wells completed:

• 29802, 365, Petro-Hunt, Lovdahl 158-94-32D-29-1H, Tioga, t7/15; cum --
• 29654, 1,682, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-13HLW, 4 sections, Westberg, t5/15; cum 29K 6/15;
• 29665, 716, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-11H, Westberg, t5/15; cum 18K 6/15;
• 29664, 1,070, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-1H, Westberg, t6/15; cum 27K 6/15;
• 29663, 719, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-10H, Westberg, t6/15; cum 18K 6/15;
• 29662, 1,084, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-4HLW, 4 sections, Westberg, t6/15; cum 25K 6/15;
• 29655, 804, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-3H, Westberg, t5/15; cum 29K 6/15;
• 29657, 807, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-2H, Westberg, t5/15; cum 25K 6/15;
• 29656, 789, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-12H, Westberg, t5/15; cum 22K 6/15; 

The "Crack Cocaine and Heroin" Solution -- Biofuels -- August 19, 2015

Ask 1,000 analysts why Saudi is doing what they are doing, and you will get 1,500 answers. The best answer, of course, is the "crack cocaine and heroin" answer I provided some time ago. If you don't believe me, see the McGraw Hill financial report: a convergence of factors could have US biofuel producers scrambling.

Not long ago, biofuels were viewed as an important tool for mitigating oil price spikes and for limiting carbon emissions from the transportation sector. But recent events, policies, and trends have conspired to make the near future somewhat murkier for U.S. ethanol producers, and the market has taken notice.

More recently, several Presidential hopefuls have begun positioning themselves for a run at the White House by disparaging the current Administration's energy policies with claims of onerous government intrusion, job losses, and stunted economic growth. Despite these tactics, there is continued support for the ethanol industry from both parties, which resonates with residents of Iowa, an early bellwether Presidential caucus state. For many years, the federal government and numerous state governments have supported the biofuels industry with policies that have spurred domestic production and consumption of ethanol and limited imports. But in recent months, this has swelled into a full-blown controversy, especially amid crude oil prices that make the economic case for renewable fuels less compelling.

Of course, there is still a long track record of such incentives being renewed and even strengthened, and discussions about their discontinuation are only preliminary at this point. They are still subject to rigorous review, and to political gamesmanship in Washington. But if these discussions materialize, the harvest could happen soon because public sentiment may be turning and several issuers could see their credit quality change--however, the direction of that change can differ based on the nature of the issuer.

In coming months, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services expects certain factors to potentially weaken credit quality for ethanol producers. The industry has relied on a unique blend of economics and politics to sustain itself for many years, and recent developments may call both into question. Furthermore, our criteria continue to focus on technological capacity, and it's not clear yet that second-generation biofuels can meet expected standards, despite considerable fervor for their expansion.

Much, much more at the link. (Archived.)