Thursday, May 28, 2015

Gullible Minnesotans And Other Potpourri; This Is Not An Investment Site -- Do Not Make Any Investment Or Financial Decisions Based On Anything You Read At This Blog -- May 28, 2015

The WTI crawler says oil is well above $57/bbl and this is May 28, 2015. Something tells me that huge North Dakota tax break won't take effect.

***************************************

Selected quarterly dividends for COP over the years (some numbers rounded):
  • February, 1982: 7 cents
  • February, 1987: 6 cents
  • February, 1991: 11 cents
  • January, 1997: 12 cents
  • February, 2000: 13 cents
  • February, 2004: 16 cents 
  • June, 2005: 2/1 split
  • February, 2006: 27 cents
  • February, 2008: 36 cents
  • February, 2011: 50 cents
  • February, 2013: 66 cents
  • February 2014: 69 cents
There were two more splits since 2005 (which I did not fully understand) and a spin off.

Currently paying 4.5%.

COP came up in a discussion with a family member (in-law) so I thought I would take a look at COP. 

**************
Unions 

At last minute, unions turn against minimum wage law for those employees who are union workers. Link here. Regular readers can probably figure out the reasoning on this one.

*********************
Minnesota's Grandchildren Will Rue The Day This Was Approved

Twenty-one (21) solar energy sites approved in Minnesota and what does it get you: the equivalent of one small traditional generating station. All those sites will require new transmission lines in and out, and all that traffic and all those fried birds and all that pristine 10,000-lakes scenery interrupted by solar farms in Minnesota.

Here's the map:

The StarTribune is reporting:
Geronimo Energy has won state approval to build solar arrays across Minnesota to serve Xcel Energy electric customers. The $250 million Aurora Solar Project will be, by far, the largest solar generating effort in the state.
Geronimo Energy, an Edina-based renewable energy developer, is authorized to build large solar parks at 21 locations across the state for a combined output of 100 million watts, or the equivalent of a small traditional generating station.
All but one of the solar sites will be bigger than the state’s largest existing solar array in Slayton, Minn., which generates 2 million watts. The largest of the new solar sites, near Paynesville, will generate five times more than that — and cover an area the size of Lake of the Isles in Minneapolis.
One site -- remember, there are 21 sites -- one site will cover an area the size of Lake of the Isles in Minneapolis. 

Just down the road, fourth-generation farmer Janelle Geurts said she and her husband, John, were alarmed when a neighbor made a deal with solar developer NextEra Energy Resources. “Honestly, our biggest concern is that we are trading off green growing fields that provide food,” she said.
NextEra? Where have we heard that name before? Oh, yes, this is the renewable energy company that has no wind farms or solar farms in its home stage of Florida, but it loves putting up wind farms and solar farms in North Dakota and Minnesota, buying land from gullible landowners and getting approval from PUCs mandated by legislators. Fast-tracked by the way before anyone catches on.



*************************************
UNP Furloughs 900 Workers; Jamie Dimon To Lay Off 5,000

UNP furloughs workers due to less rail activity. The AP is reporting:
The number of shipments Union Pacific has been delivering so far this year is down about 3 percent, which includes a 30 percent drop in coal carloads.
The Association of American Railroads says rail traffic nationwide is down less than 1 percent, but coal shipments are nearly 7 percent lower.
Not to be outdone, JP Morgan will layoff 5,000 employees. The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
The layoffs won’t necessarily mean that overall head count at the bank will continue to fall; J.P. Morgan hires about 40,000 employees each year to fill open positions and add to its new class of analysts, the person said. And the layoffs aren’t anticipated to be as high as last year’s when the bank cut 7,900 mortgage jobs and exited several businesses. 
So, 900 jobs (UNP) and 5,000 jobs (JP Morgan). Seems a bit of headline hyperbole. Rail traffic nationwide is down less than one percent and JP Morgan hires 40,000 employees each year to fill open positions.

******************************
A Note to the Granddaughters

Because the granddaughters now spend less time at our apartment now that they've moved into a McMansion, May and I have re-arranged our 700-square-foot apartment to give ourselves more room, removing the "personal space" once reserved for the granddaughters. Wow, it seems we've opened up an area equivalent to a small den.

No sooner had we completed that when our older granddaughter said she was coming over tonight to work on a school project requiring computer, printer, card-making stock, book binding material, sharpies, stickers, etc. We quickly arranged the apartment again for that to be managed efficiently and effectively. I picked her up and brought her over to the apartment, and then to get out of their way I drove down to Starbucks. Normally I ride my bike, but another night of rain is forecast. In Boston I often rode my bike in the rain but that's because rain was the norm in Boston. Here in Texas, not so much. Except for the past three weeks. Also, it was hard to find parking in Boston, and the roads were atrocious with potholes. Except for some potholes on I-35E north of Dallas, I don't drive anywhere in North Texas where there are potholes.

I used to hate automobiles. But I love the little Honda Civic and every time I get in it -- especially at night -- I'm reminded of my cross-country trips to the Bakken. Tonight while pulling unto the frontage road as the sun went down I had fleeting memories of pulling off the freeway on those cross-country trips to stop at McDonald's to blog and catch upon e-mail. 

It looks like I will have another cross-country opportunity soon. The granddaughters -- the two older ones -- and May and I will be driving out to California in late June. The older granddaughter is already working on the itinerary; she wants to spend more time in Sedonia this trip.

The price of gasoline has crept up quietly to $2.65/gallon, least expensive grade in our neighborhood. Diesel runs anywhere from ten cents to twenty cents more per gallon than least expensive grade of gasoline.

Six (6) New Permits -- May 28, 2015

Active rigs:


5/28/201505/28/201405/28/201305/28/201205/28/2011
Active Rigs83189186216172

Six (6) new permits -- 
  • Operators: Hess (4), Sinclair (2)
  • Fields: Antelope (McKenzie), Little Knife (Dunn)
  • Comments: 
One (1) producing well completed:
  • 28702, 1,722, MRO, Krebs 34-20TFH, Bailey, target defined as a 12-foot zone, drilling in the F, G, H markers; at one point penetrating the K marker outside the target zone; the lateral was within the targeted interval 76% of the time, and 100% within the Three Forks; background gases generally very low, but trip gases as high as 1,544 units; environmentalists will be happy that no flar was observed throughout the drilling operations; frack data not yet posted; t3/15; cum 19K 3/15;
Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 21833, A, CLR, Micahlucas 2-5H, Jim Creek, no IP, no test date, probably 3/15; cum 2K 3/15;
  • 27774, 739, EOG, Wayzetta 60-3334H, Parshall, Bakken well, 26 stages, 3.5 million lbs; t11/14; cum 24K 3/15;
  • 29074, drl/NC, XTO, Amundson 34X-22A, Siverston, no production data,
  • 29819, drl/NC, Enerplus, Rebutia 149-92-35B-05H, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 29983, 481, Slawson, Phoenix 1 SLH, Big Bend, t3/15; cum --

GDP Now: GDP To Surge -- Forecast Jumps 14% To 0.8% Growth; From Earlier 0.7% Growth Expectations

Latest forecast — May 26, 2015
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.8 percent on May 26, up slightly from 0.7 percent on May 19.
Following this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real equipment investment growth increased from 3.5 percent to 5.1 percent while the forecast for the change in inventory investment in 2009 dollars increased from -$22 billion to -$19 billion.

Refracking -- May 28, 2015

This is a huge story; we've been talking about it for quite some time. Investopedia is reporting:
There was an interesting theme running through the conference calls of energy giants and oilfield service companies this past quarter. From Chesapeake Energy to Halliburton to Schlumberger, the one theme that kept coming up, other than oil prices, was the potential for refracking. It's a trend that could have enormous potential for Chesapeake Energy in the years ahead.
I have a tag for refracking. It began with MRO.

From the linked article:
Jason Pigott, Chesapeake's EVP of its Southern Division, noted the company's refracking potential on its first-quarter conference call:
Within our retained portfolio, Chesapeake has drilled 6,750 horizontal wells since 2004. Of these wells, nearly 4,600 were drilled prior to 2012, and we consider these wells understimulated, compared to our current designs, and based on their vintage.
In other words, 68% of the company's wells could be refracked because they were drilled before 2012 and therefore aren't using the latest technology and techniques that have really driven the company's operations over the past few years.
EOG says it's cheaper to simply drill a new well (to include fracking) rather than go back in and re-frack.
It really doesn't matter to Schlumberger or Halliburton whether one re-fracks or drills a new well (in fact, it would be better for SLB and HAL if new wells were drilled, rather than just refracking old wells).

Staggering -- If You Think About It -- May 28, 2015

From RBN Energy today, a most remarkable blog. One can talk all day about solar and wind energy, but when it comes down to reality, in global energy, it's all about coal and natural gas. Today's RBN Energy post is about LNG exports to Asia. Maybe some day they will find huge natural gas reserves in Asia, but apparently not there yet.

From RBN Energy today:
Asian consumers of liquefied natural gas hope to use the current supply glut—and the start-up of U.S. LNG export facilities--to their long-term advantage. Their very understandable goal is to up-end the old market structure, which for years has had them paying far more for LNG than their Western European counterparts. How will the coming revolution affect U.S. natural gas producers and the next round of U.S. LNG export projects? Today, we continue our review of the fast-changing global market for LNG with a look at a new set of Asian LNG buyers and at the region’s fast-changing supply/demand dynamics.
Most of Asia has experienced significant economic growth in the first 15 years of the 21st century—not just powerhouses like China and India but smaller, more mature economies like South Korea’s, Taiwan’s and Singapore’s, and still-developing nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam. In most places that growth is being fueled in large part by energy from natural gas, and that trend is very likely to continue, especially if (as seems probable) gas prices remain competitive with oil and coal. Asia’s gas reserves are spotty, though, forcing many countries (Japan, Korea, China and India among them) to turn to LNG imports and—if possible—gas delivered by pipeline.
As we said in Episode 1 of our series, the market for LNG has evolved gradually over the last 50-odd years, but it remains dominated by long-term LNG supply deals. At first LNG prices were fixed, but starting with the OPEC oil crisis in 1973-74, oil and LNG prices were linked, with the goal of mitigating risks for buyers and sellers.
In Episode 2, we ran through five major catalysts shaking up the LNG trade:
1) New LNG capacity coming online, mostly in Australia and the U.S.;
2) Fixed liquefaction tolling agreements being offered by U.S. LNG developers and natural gas costs tied to price index percentages (typically 115%) of the U.S. Henry Hub, LA benchmark;
3) The collapse in oil prices and the resulting drop in oil-indexed LNG prices;
4) The roll-off of long-term LNG supply deals and the increasing share of LNG capacity available to the spot market; and
5) The recent slump in Asian LNG demand-and prices--that have occasionally  made Western Europe a more attractive market for spot LNG sales.
In Episode 3, we looked at existing and future demand in China and India, which are expected to be the world’s biggest LNG growth markets—along with the use of LNG as a ship bunker fuel.
And in Episode 4, we considered Japan and Korea, by far the world’s largest LNG consumers, and (with China and India) the driving forces behind reshaping the Asian market.

In RBN Energy's next episode, RBN Energy will look at why the Asian and European sub-markets for LNG have been so different, and at whether there’s a chance that, with lots of new LNG capacity coming online, those sub-markets might finally start to look more alike. RBN Energy will also consider Asian LNG-buying alliances and the potential for an Asian LNG hub—two things that could help keep a lid on LNG prices in the region.
Population:
  • China: 1.357 billion (10x Japan; 27x Korea)
  • India: 1.252 billion 
  • Japan: 127 million
  • South Korea: 50 million
And everyone in China and India wants to have the lifestyle of the Japanese and/or the South Koreans.

*******************************
Apple Page

Apple, also, has some exciting news today. Apple announced a new retail store to open on Saturday, June 13 in Upper East Side, Manhattan, NYC. 

The comments were interesting: mostly a complaint that there were not enough Apple retail stores in NYC. As hard as it is to believe, there is no Apple retail store near Wall Street. Apple must have a very, very interesting algorithm when determining when/where to open a new retail store.

This is only Apple's seventh store in NYC, and apparently some New York boroughs still have no Apple stores.
Apple overnight added signage to its upcoming retail location in the Upper East Side of Manhattan that confirms the store will open on June 13. The new store will be located at 940 Madison Avenue, on the corner of 74th Street, and remains under construction ahead of opening. The new store will be Apple's seventh retail location in New York City alongside Fifth Avenue, Grand Central, SoHo, Upper West Side, West 14th Street and Staten Island stores.

*******************************
Wow, Will This Year's Global Warming Ever Quit?
Caribou, Maine, Reporting Record Snowfall Today

Ice Age Now is reporting: 
Not much, but it’s still a record.
“The 0.3″ of snow observed at Caribou yesterday was the greatest snowfall on record so late in the season,” says National Weather Service Tweet.
“Old record 0.2″ on 5/25/74.