Trivia: How Long Have We Known About The "Lower Benches" Of The Three Forks In North Dakota? -- September 22, 2014

Earlier a reader mentioned that "we have been hearing about the lower benches of the Three Forks for a long time, now."

I was curious. How long has it been?

The earliest I can find when we first started talking about the lower benches of the Three Forks was sometime in 2011. A reference to CLR talking about these was benches was mentioned in an August 16, 2011, post.

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Deciphering Nomenclature

In today's Daily Activity Report, I see two new well designations I had not seen before (it turns out I had, but did not recall). Slawson normally uses "H" for middle Bakken, and "TFH" for upper bench of the Three Forks (TF1). From permits issued in 2014, so far:

• 27887, conf, Slawson, Mustang 1 SLH,
• 28219, conf, Slawson, Sniper Federal 1 SLH,
• 28450, conf, Slawson, Blade Federal 1-18MLH,
• 28451, conf, Slawson, Blade Federal 2-18MLH,
• 29435, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 1 SLH,
• 29471, conf, Slawson, Wolf 2-4MLH, 
• 29472, conf, Slawson, Pike Federal 1 SLH,

Note the "SLH" and the "MLH." Based on some Slawson activity in Montana, there might be an explanation for SLH and MLH but I really don't know. Maybe a reader out there knows what these designations mean.

I did not see these designations used by Slawson in 2013 (although the search was quick; I could have missed an example from 2013, but I doubt it).

By the way, it appears Slawson is using new designations for two of the lower benches in the Three Forks, TF2 and TF3. 

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Libya

Reuters is reporting:

Soldiers and police have clashed in the last few days near Libya's biggest El Sharara oilfield in the south, while separate fighting erupted in the west not far from the Zawiya refinery, residents and medics said. The violence came as video emerged on social media purportedly showing a rival oil minister appointed by an armed opposition group controlling the capital Tripoli giving a speech at the oil ministry.

If confirmed this could mean the central government has lost control of the oil ministry, potentially paralysing vital oil exports over questions of ownership. 

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News Some Of Us Will Be Reading About Eight Hours From Now

Futures:  both the "mini" Dow and WTI are up slightly.

The Wall Street Journal

US, Arab "allies" strike militants in Syria. It looks like the invasion has begun with little fanfare and minimal Congressional hearings. ObamaWar. The war may save President Obama's legacy.

President Obama issued new rules to combat tax inversions. As long as Warren Buffett is happy with this, I'm not going to argue.

German firms go on US buying spree. Link here.

Apple sold more than 10 million iPhones in first weekend. There is a question whether even as many as 7 million Americans signed up for ObamaCare in the first year, much less one weekend.

 Markets tremble on new worries about Chinese growth.

Siemen's Dresser deal has shades of Shell. 

I did not know this when I wrote that the more socialist an organizer seemed to be, the more likely he/she would show up at the NYC climate change march this past Sunday, or whenever it was. It turns out that the official slogan of Flood Wall Street, the demonstration that brought protesters to Mananhattan is/was: "Stop Capitalism. End the climate crisis." Again, right on target. 

The Los Angeles Times

Local council to vote on $15.37 minimum wage for workers at big hotels. Why not $153.70/hour?

Yahoo!Sports

Wow, Ravens owner screws it up with comment on domestic abuse.

ONEOK Announces Another Natural Gas Processing Plant -- Dunn County -- September 22, 2014

Press release here.

Oneok Partners announced today plans to invest approximately $480 million to $680 million between now and the end of the third quarter 2016 to:

• Build a new 80-million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) natural gas processing facility – the Bear Creek plant – and related infrastructure in northwest Dunn County, North Dakota, which will process natural gas produced from the Bakken Shale in the Williston Basin; and
• Construct a new 100-MMcf/d natural gas processing facility – the Bronco plant – and related infrastructure in southern Campbell County, Wyoming, which will process natural gas produced from the NGL-rich Turner, Frontier, Sussex and Niobrara Shale formations in the Powder River Basin.

"In 2014, the partnership has announced $1.5 billion to $1.9 billion in capital-growth projects – a continuation of our $7.5 billion to $8.2 billion capital-growth program planned through 2016," said Terry K. Spencer, president and chief executive officer of ONEOK Partners.  

"The Bear Creek and Bronco plants will increase our natural gas processing capacity across our operating footprint by 180 MMcf/d and add additional natural gas and natural gas liquids volumes on our systems. These projects further demonstrate the value of the partnership's integrated operations that allows us to better serve area producers."

I track the ONEOK NG plants here.

Twenty-Two (22) New Permits -- North Dakota; MRO, CLR Will Each Report A Nice Well Tuesday -- September 22, 2014

I think the deadline for submitting cases to the NDIC for the October, 2014, hearing dockets is this Friday. If correct, perhaps we will see the agenda at the close of business on Friday or sometime over the weekend.

Active rigs:

	9/22/2014	09/22/2013	09/22/2012	09/22/2011	09/22/2010
Active Rigs	196	185	185	195	144

Wells coming off the confidential list on Tuesday:

• 27309, drl, BR, Copper Draw 21-27TFH, Johnson Corner, no production data,
• 27559, 2,052, MRO, Harry 34-24TFH, Chimney Butte, t7/14; cum 24K 7/14;
• 27629, 1,134, CLR, Brogger 7-4H, Crazy Man Creek, t7/14; cum 17K 7/14;

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today, were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Twenty-two (22) new permits --

• Operators: CLR (8), Statoil (8), Hess (2), Slawson, Enduro, American Eagle,
• Fields: Chimney Butte (Dunn), Brooklyn (Williams), Alger (Mountrail), Big Bend (Mountrail), Tioga (Williams), Skjermo (Divide), North Grano (Renville)
• Comments: six of the CLR wells will be in the same section, either one 6-well pad, or two 3-well pads; the six Statoil permits look to be for wells on one 6-well pad (more Sorenson wells)

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27629, see above, CLR, Brogger 7-4H, Crazy Man Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2014	16246	21093
6-2014	345	0

27559, see above, MRO, Harry 34-24TFH, Chimney Butte:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2014	22914	8865

Ceramics Vs Sand -- (C)Rude Awakening? September 22, 2014

Updates

Later, 4:26 p.m. CDT: a reader sent me a link to the one-year graph for CRR. The sell-off did not begin today. The sell-off began in July / August and was much, much worse, or certainly as bad. Check out the one-year CRR chart at Yahoo!Finance. There's more going on than what the article from IBD had today; see below.  If this portends more about the oil and gas industry, or the global economy or the national economy, than just CRR, it could be the canary in the coal mine. Scary.

Original Post

Shares of Carbo Ceramics plummet 18% today. The graph is stunning.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Investor's Business Daily is reporting:

Carbo Ceramics expects ceramic proppant sales to take a hit as drillers try new techniques that require sand proppants, sending shares plummeting Monday.

The company also noted increased price competition on ceramic proppant sales from domestic and international manufacturers, especially in the Bakken play.

"We plan to manage the current competitive pricing environment, caused by proppant oversupply, by focusing on sales volumes and introducing new technologies," CEO Gary Kolstad said in a statement.

Some Carbo clients are also seeing delays with well completion, pushing some sales the company expected to make in September to later in the year.

The company sees third-quarter ceramic proppant sales volumes of 375 million pounds, similar to first-quarter sales, as demand for frac sand rises from drillers like Rosetta Resources.

Carbo shares plunged 19% on the stock market today. Frac sand producers U.S. Silica and Emerge Energy Services were down more than 3%.

Stock market analysts seem to see things on a quarterly basis.

Pad drilling is causing havoc with frack schedules. Winter is almost here in the Bakken, though the "winter" weather should not affect the fracking schedule in any meaningful way until December at the earliest.

However, combining pad drilling with winter weather and the industry may be into November by now, for planning purposes.

If so, it's very possible, in addition to everything said in IBD, operators are slowing down in purchases of proppant as we move into November/December fracking schedule.

Again, I have no formal training in this stuff and no background whatsoever in the oil and gas industry, and so this is simply armchair/idle chatter from someone who probably knows less about the Bakken than you do. So take my comments for what they are worth: my comments plus $1.89 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

Also, just for grins, there could be a lot of pressure on BNSF and the rest of the railroads to minimize non-agricultural products while trying to meet the demand of the 2014 harvest. The farmers have a lot of clout in Washington and nothing surprises me any more. It's very possible, BNSF, others are under great pressure to replace some of their sand/ceramic hoppers with grain hoppers.

Idle chatter.

Just out of curiosity, sand or ceramics for those two nice Whiting wells reported this weekend? Both. Sand and ceramic.

I believe EOG is pretty much 100% sand, but always has been, nothing new.

The most-talked about "current" Bakken presentation is probably the CLR presentation which mentions "high volume proppant" but does not compare sand vs ceramic. There is one slide and one slide only in which sand is mentioned; ceramic is not mentioned. The generic term "proppant" is used throughout. Unless the oral presentation suggested something different, there seems to be no evidence in the presentation whether CLR prefers sand over ceramics.

CLR does stress slickwater. Can ceramics be used with slickwater. Here's one answer: http://www.worldoil.com/Ceramic-proppant-for-slickwater-fracturing.html.

Fractures Extend All Of 300' From The Well-Bore; ObamaCare: Government / AP Figures Very Similar To MDW Numbers; Global Warming Peer-Reviewed Studies Starting To Come In -- September 22, 2014

This is really, really cool. Regular readers know I posted from the very beginning that I thought fracking was only effective about 500' out from the well bore. I got a lot of pushback on that from "the other Bakken discussion board." I saw that with the Olson wells which were drilled so long ago it seems like ancient history.

So, it was gratifying to see this "single bullet" in the 114-slide CLR corporate presentation; from slide 29:

• Significant un-propped area exists between wellbores (1,320’ spacing / 330’ stage)

• Models suggest sand-propped fractures extend 280’-340’ in each direction from the wellbores based on integrating the microseismic data with stimulation modeling

On August 3, 2013, I posted this:

Fracking is only effective out to about 500 feet.

This was posted October 17, 2012:

NEXT Frac outperforms traditional hydraulic fracturing techniques as it can easily reach wellbore radial fracture propagation of 180m - 365m, as compared to typical hydraulic fracture propagation of 30m.  [30 meters is about 100 feet.]

Back on that same date, that same link, I wrote:

I have mentioned several times on the blog that is appears to me that the radial effectiveness of conventional fracturing is about 500 feet.

That was back in 2012.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to suggest what that might mean.

By the way, the BEXP Brad Olson wells were spud in late 2010 -- that's how long ago I thought about the effective radial distance of fracking. Whoohoo!

• 19085, Brad Olson 9-16 3H, 2,172; Painted Woods; t4/11; cum 93K 4/12; 
• 19086, Brad Olson 9-16 2H, 2,472, Painted Woods; spudded 7/10; cum 111K 4/12;

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Those ObamaCare Numbers: Fact Or Fiction

Regular readers know that I opined from the beginning that the number of folks who signed up for ObamaCare was in the four (4) million range, and that probably half the number of enrollees (whatever the number turned out to be) would actually pay a full year's worth of premiums and re-enroll.

It looks like I'm not too far off.

The AP is reporting:

Scrambled statistics are part of the growing pains for President Barack Obama's health care law.

The administration has had to revise and refine some initial enrollment numbers after they turned out to be too optimistic. At other times, less-favorable metrics leaked out after officials claimed not to have such data.

Call it health-law numerology [or just plain lying]. It's a new pursuit for administration officials from the president on down, lawmakers of both parties, and a gaggle of outside analysts [including the MDW, home of I-98].

The latest data tweak — an administration announcement that 7.3 million paying customers signed up for subsidized private insurance as of mid-August — set off more speculation. Some said it may prove overly rosy.

"They have been playing fast and loose with these numbers," said insurance industry consultant Robert Laszewski, a critic of Obama's law who has also skewered proposals from the president's Republican foes.

"Until we get an outside audit we are not going to know what the heck is going on."

Purists will say that "my" four (4) million figure is significantly different than the "7 million figure." 

Is it?

US population: 320 million.

US illegal population: 20 million (allowed to sign up).

4 / 340 =  1.1%

7 / 340 = 2.0%

From the article: "... some say 7.3 million may prove overly rosy." The definition of "overly" in this case is 3.35 million (citation needed). Thus we have: 3.95 million actually signed up based on AP numbers.

And thus my original figure of 4.0 million was likely more than the actual number that signed up.

I can't make this stuff up. Except the part about the definition of "overly" -- but for that I'm still looking for the citation. LOL.

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Global Warming: Fact Or Fiction

Now that the scientists have passed the baton to the celebrities (The Great Gatsby and the Titanic star takes the lead, and we know how those movies ended for the star), we'll start seeing more peer-reviewed studies on global warming, like this one. The AP is reporting:

A new study released Monday found that warming temperatures in Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of North America over the past century closely followed natural changes in the wind, not increases in greenhouse gases related to global warming.

The study compared ocean surface temperatures from 1900 to 2012 to surface air pressure, a stand-in for wind measurements, and found a close match. 

"What we found was the somewhat surprising degree to which the winds can explain all the wiggles in the temperature curve," said lead author Jim Johnstone, who did the work while a climatologist at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington. 

"So clearly, there are other factors stronger than the greenhouse forcing that is affecting those temperatures," he added.

By the way, this is an old, old theory -- wind -- that has explained the decline (and in some cases, the return) of glaciers worldwide.  

UC Irvine? Really, Irvine?