Sunday, August 18, 2024

Op-Ed On A Possible M4 MacBook This Year -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48459APPLE.

Link here. 

From the linked article:

Apple hasn’t officially announced M4 Macs, but tipsters like Mark Gurman claim the company will unleash a new MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, Mac Pro, Mac Studio and Mac Mini sometime in the latter half of 2024. Considering how the iPad Pro (2024) packs an Apple M4 chip, it’s not unreasonable to assume we’ll soon see Macs featuring the latest M-series processor.

The prospect of M4 Macs is exciting, as each new M-series chip ups the ante in terms of power and efficiency. Based on our testing of the M4 processor in the iPad Pro, the next wave of Macs should be the most powerful yet. But is that enough justification for you to plunk down money for a new Mac?

Though I’m looking forward to M4 Macs, I don’t think most people need to rush out to get these machines. Here are 5 reasons why you might want to skip Apple M4 Macs.

And then this: 

Based on our testing, we can confidently say the M4 chip is the fastest and most powerful M-series processor we've benchmarked. As you can see in the table below, the iPad Pro with M4 has excellent performance — even besting some of the best laptops. We should see similar results from M4 Macs.

That's what we could see from Macs with the entry-level M4 chip but things might be more interesting if Apple announces M4 Pro and M4 Max processors. We haven’t heard much about these potential chips, but considering how previous generations of M-series processors had Pro and Max variants (and Ultra for Apple M1 and Apple M2), the same should be true for M4.

Outside of those potential M4 versions, don’t expect anything surprising from the base M4 chip in the upcoming Macs.


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Disclaimer Briefly 
Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

SoFi Walked Away From Intel -- But ... August 18, 2024

Locator: 48458CHIPS.

From April 9, 2024, IEEE Spectrum:

I'm posting this mostly for the archives.

Also for the "jargon" as it were, and the progression of the chips. 

But mostly I'm posting this because of the recent chatter about a possible SoFi - Intel link up, which apparently is dead ... but ... for me, hope springs eternal. Intel is too vital to fail. And Washington, DC knows it. 

Right now, keeping an eagle eye on INTC and RIVN. But note the blog's disclaimer.

From the linked article: 

Although the race to power the massive ambitions of AI companies might seem like it’s all about Nvidia, there is a real competition going in AI accelerator chips. The latest example: At Intel’s Vision 2024 event this week in Phoenix, Ariz., the company gave the first architectural details of its third-generation AI accelerator, Gaudi 3.

With the predecessor chip, the company had touted how close to parity its performance was to Nvidia’s top chip of the time, H100, and claimed a superior ratio of price versus performance. With Gaudi 3, it’s pointing to large-language-model (LLM) performance where it can claim outright superiority. But, looming in the background is Nvidia’s next GPU, the Blackwell B200, expected to arrive later this year.

Gaudi 3 doubles down on its predecessor Gaudi 2’s architecture, literally in some cases. Instead of Gaudi 2’s single chip, Gaudi 3 is made up of two identical silicon dies joined by a high-bandwidth connection. Each has a central region of 48 megabytes of cache memory. Surrounding that are the chip’s AI workforce—four engines for matrix multiplication and 32 programmable units called tensor processor cores. All that is surrounded by connections to memory and capped with media processing and network infrastructure at one end.

Intel says that all that combines to produce double the AI compute of Gaudi 2 using 8-bit floating-point infrastructure that has emerged as key to training transformer models. It also provides a fourfold boost for computations using the BFloat 16 number format.

Intel projects a 40 percent faster training time for the GPT-3 175B large language model versus the H100 and even better results for the 7-billion and 8-billion parameter versions of Llama 2. 
For inferencing, the contest was much closer, according to Intel, where the new chip delivered 95 to 170 percent of the performance of H100 for two versions of Llama. Though for the Falcon 180B model, Gaudi 3 achieved as much as a fourfold advantage. Unsurprisingly, the advantage was smaller against the Nvidia H200—80 to 110 percent for Llama and 3.8x for Falcon.

Intel claims more dramatic results when measuring power efficiency, where it projects as much as 220 percent H100’s value on Llama and 230 percent on Falcon (see wiki on large language models).

“Our customers are telling us that what they find limiting is getting enough power to the data center,” says Intel’s Habana Labs chief operating officer Eitan Medina.

The energy-efficiency results were best when the LLMs were tasked with delivering a longer output. Medina puts that advantage down to the Gaudi architecture’s large-matrix math engines. These are 512 bits across. Other architectures use many smaller engines to perform the same calculation, but Gaudi’s supersize version “needs almost an order of magnitude less memory bandwidth to feed it,” he says.
Llama? Link here.

From META AI: Llama (acronym for Large Language Model Meta AI, and formerly stylized as LLaMA) is a family of autoregressive large language models (LLMs) released by Meta AI starting in February 2023. The latest version is Llama 3.1, released in July 2024.

***********************************
Disclaimer Briefly 
Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

Why The CHIPS Act Was So Incredibly Important -- Thank You, Mr Biden -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48457CHIPS.

Link here. And here.

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How Israel Killed A Ghost

Link to The WSJ. 

An Unexpected Answer To An Earlier Question -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48456INV.

Less than three hours ago I posted a fairly long note on personal investing. Then less than thirty minutes ago, I had a sidebar e-mail discussion with a reader regarding the same subject, personal investing.

Now, out of nowhere, to my yahoo e-mail address I get this:

I am not kidding.

Either absolutely coincidental or someone's tracking me a whole lot better / more than I can even imagine. 

LOL. 

By the way, Michael Fitzsimmons is, perhaps, my favorite SeekingAlpha contributor. 

I know what I'm doing Monday. LOL. 

***********************************
Disclaimer Briefly 
Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

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The Book Page
Jane Eyre

A note to one of our daughters:

Hi, Laura,

You mentioned reading my literature blog and mentioned you might read Emma. I can't recall reading Emma. My hunch is Jane Eyre would be the better of the two. 

You may want to read the wiki entries of both books before deciding. 

I have dozens of journals -- literally dozens of journals -- all handwritten -- and I'm gradually typing them all out and posting them on the web. Not public yet. However, here is a snippet of how I got started reading and it has a section on Jane Eyre. 

Here's the snippet: 

I had been sent to northern England by the Air Force for indeterminate length of time – it turned out to be three months – my duty days were short, and being the asocial creature I was, I spent my free hours, starting at 4:00 p.m. in my room with nothing to do but read. British television, except for minor exceptions, is lousy – when it’s good, it’s very good, but when it’s bad, it’s very, very bad – and it seemed bad 90 percent of the time. 

But if the Brits can’t do TV right, their writing is outstanding. 

Passing through British airports in London and British bookstores in the local area I picked up books and began reading as I’ve never read before. When the occasional visitor stopped by, it was with great pride to show him a stack of eleven books which I had completed, and a stack of three or our new books, not yet opened. There would be two or three opened books on the bed. 

I was back and forth to this northern England base for the next eighteen months, accumulating perhaps as many as nine months there. Once I started reading there, I have not quit. So much of my reading leads me to explanations of things not understood before I can really appreciate why philologists enjoy their vocation. 

Wow – where do I begin? 

Because of my romantic ties to Yorkshire and having visited Haworth, Emily Brontë’s home, I began there. I got through my Brontë phase by reading Wuthering Heights, Jane Eyre, and two biographies of Emily and the Brontës – one by the close friend of Emily – Elizabeth Gaskell. From there, based on a recommendation of a woman “colleague” still at Menwith Hill Station, England, I read Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice. Another awesome book. From there, I don’t remember exactly why, I then chose to read something from George Eliot. I seldom saw Middlemarch recommended, but when I saw a copy at Borders, it immediately appealed to me. Through this reading, there were references in introductions or prefaces or internet searches to Sir Walter Scott, so I finally broke down, and decided I wanted to read something of his. He never interested me until now. Again, not often recommended, I read Rob Roy and find it so exciting, interesting, a real joy to read. To better understand the times I read The History of the Scotch-Irish (Ulstermen) at the same time. I couldn’t believe how well Rob Roy dovetailed with what I was reading in the history of the Scotch-Irish. It was almost as if historians have often relied on novelists, poets, authors for additional insight. 

My reading became so voracious – it became insatiable. It became an addiction, a craving. Two nights ago (5 July 2005) despite several books yet to read at home, I suddenly felt the need for another Sir Walter Scott book and even another Jane Austen book. I thought after reading Rob Roy and Middlemarch I was past my Brontë-Austen-Scott phase. Apparently not. My craving was so bad, despite the lateness of the hour (10:05 p.m.), the heat, the high price of gas, the wear and tear on the car, I drove to the nearest Half-Price Bookstore. I hate to pay full –price and only at these 2nd hand bookstores can I find some of these books. But Half-Price Bookstore was closed – I had to feed my addiction. I went to Barnes and Noble nearby but couldn’t find the book I was looking for. The next day/night, I went to Borders and bought Jane Austen’s Northanger Abbey and a Bob Dylan musical DVD – more on that later. I have read a bit of Northanger Abbey and can’t wait to get into it deeply. More on that later. Anyway, some interesting tidbits. 

Where did Middlemarch come from? The word/name Middlemarch. Serendipitously I have found the answer. 

Reading an abbreviated history of England I came across the phrase “Marcher Lords.” Marcher – March – hmmm…is there a connection? You bet there is. In early England—12th century, let’s say, the boundaries between Scotland and England and between Wales and England were called Marches. The boundary was the march – from the same derivative of the word mark – markers that denote a geographical boundary. Te king came up with a new title to give a man who receives land along these boundaries from the king: marquis!! French word? Remember – Wm the Conqueror spoke French, as did several kings that followed. So, I now understand the derivation of Middlemarch can move on. I never gave much thought to Jane Eyre – where did that name come from? Again, I never gave it much thought. Eyre is said to be a common English name (when I read Boswell’s journal of his trip to the Western Isles (Hebrides) there was an individual whose first name was Eyre – therefore, I wonder if it is more correct to say Eyre is a common “Scottish name – not “English”). So I left it at that until, again, serendipitously, reading that same abbreviated history of England, I came across an innovation of Henry II: “Justices in Eyre.” 

Due to inadequate legal infrastructure in rural England, Henry II instituted circuit judges – and called them Justices in Eyre, from a French wood “errer,” to journey. 

Wow! Eyre – to journey – which is essentially what the autobiographic Jane Eyre is all about. After making that connection, I found someone on the net who had made the same connection. But – no mentioned was made of the alliteration – Jane Eyre – Justices in Eyre. Wow! It all makes sense.

 (Transcribing February16, 2008: I wonder if Jane Austen looked at “justice” being meted out by herself, or Jane Eyre, when writing this novel? I would have to go back and read the novel.)

Starbucks -- One Of The Most Fascinating Business Stories To Follow Over Next 12 Months -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48455SBUX.

Updates

Later, 7:49 p.m. CDT: I was wrong -- CNBC thinks Starbucks' big problem is its mobile app, link here:

 Original Post

Starbucks. New CEO. Two things to watch:

  • how the new CEO cuts costs to increase earnings to excite investors:
    • close under-performing stores quickly; surely there must be many;
      • take a lesson from GE's Jack Welch's "cut 10%" policy (stores, not baristas)
    • close "uncomfortable" stores (high crime areas); symbolic but will appeal to investors;
  • how the new CEO changes the product to excite customers; the product?
    • price: perceived as high-price option; coffee and a bagel costs as much as a Chipotle burrito; prices have to come down, but I just don't see it; will probably market "value" for price, maybe offer more specials at slow times of the day.
    • service: perceived as slow (with which I disagree)
      • is there an opportunity for self-serve for simple black coffee like most other places?
    • fare: perceived as bland, little change in ten years
      • could they add smoothies during the summer? I honestly don't know.
    • loyalty rewards: perceived as really, really chintzy (with which I agree)
      • give local baristas more latitude in rewarding daily visitors, especially those who actually spend time in the restaurant; offer a free refill and see if a customer might be ready for another snack (at cost)
      • seriously, how much revenue is lost when a barista offers a free refill on a tall black coffee;
    • the app: seems okay to me

This will be absolutely fascinating; a new CEO is generally given a year to make his/her mark. 

Where to watch the new CEO's successes / failures? On Cramer's Mad Money.