Personal Investing -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48454INV.

I owe my fascination with investing to my dad. He knew very, very little about investing but he did quite well. I can't explain it. The only real access to investing news was the 4" bx 4" box of stock market activity in the Bismarck Tribune that he received a day late, since the newspaper was delivered by truck from Bismark to Williston, North Dakota, a day late, and he got the morning edition on the following afternoon.

I remember only one piece of advice from him: "6-6-6." Buy shares at the following data/price points:

• share price: $6
• p/e: 6
• dividend: 6%.

And that was it. 

Shares, in his day, moved up and down "an eighth of a point" on a daily basis.

He bought AAPL at least a decade before I ever bought any shares in AAPL. He honestly thought Apple was a fruit wholesaler when he first looked at AAPL as an investment opportunity.

He rode the greatest bull market in history. 

Fast forward.

Stocks move up and down 20% on any given day.

Data points:

• share prices: $100
• p/e's: 50
• dividends: 2% or less

Opportunity to get rick quick: incredible.

Opportunity to go broke quick: incredible.  

Access to business news / information: 24/7. 

Quality of business news: can be quite phenomenal.

• or quite bad. A lot of negativity out there. A lot of hate out there. A lot of pessimism out there.
• business news risk: overload. lose sight of the forest for all the trees.
  

"They" say diversification is key.

Okay, so where do I stand?

Well, for one thing, I've quit investing for myself. The entire portfolio is being moved to the portfolios of the five grandchildren. TODs and PODs are being re-accomplished, naming the five grandchildren. No controlling from the grave. 

All new money for investing is going into the grandchildren's accounts.

Horizon: a rolling 30-year horizon.

Mostly large cap.

Generally must pay a dividend. Few exceptions.

Diversification: 20 companies. 

Only companies in which I would want my grandchildren to work for and would be willing to establish 401(k)s in those companies. 

The challenge right now is the diversification mix:

• energy 
• natural gas for electrification demand -- Texas
  
• two premier shale oil companies
  
• tech 
• seven big names
• AAPL: only on significant pullbacks
  
• BRK -- exception to the dividend rule
  
• consumer retail 
• WMT
  
• EVs (remember: I would never invest in EVs for myself but for my grandchildren, a different story)
• Rivian
  
• professionally managed -- 529s? ETFs, mutual fund-equivalents inside grandchildren Roth IRAS
  

And that's about it. 

Of the five above, maybe this allocation, new money:

• 10% -- currently overweighted in energy after years of accumulating shares in oil sector
• natural gas pipelines may be one of the better ways to play the energy market
  
• 30% -- currently way underweighted except in AAPL
• 10% -- BRK is a real quandary for me; as is AMZN for that matter
• 10% -- if have to diversify in the "WMT sector," then perhaps Costco
  
• 10%????? -- EVs -- in percentage terms, this would not amount to much, but in dollar amounts this would be quite ... shall we say, "interesting"?
• I wonder if millennials like RIVN so much is because they can get a lot of shares for $20? 
• that is something to think about: for $20, about what slips through my fingers every couple of days, I could be building a pretty nice Rivian position
  
• 30%????? -- managed financial vehicles would probably be the smartest thing to do
  

Again, this is new money. Current portfolio they will inherit completely different.

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Disclaimer Briefly 

Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.