Market Today After CPI Comes In "Hot" -- Oil In Storage Surges -- April 10, 2024

Locator: 46971INVESTING.

The new question: did the Fed did not raise the rates high enough a year ago; is the Fed now losing credibility.

On a down day for the market, NVDA is up 2%? Up $15.38 / share.

Copper: prices climb to 2024 high; 

• Citi: the second bull market for copper this century; link here.
• be sure to read that third bullet:

• copper prices with May delivery traded at $4.323 per pound in New York as of Wednesday morning, extending gains after settling at its highest level since June 2022 in the previous session.
• three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange traded 0.6% higher at $9,477 per metric ton.
• demand for copper is widely considered a proxy for economic health.

"Trump stock" plummets. Link here.

• Trump himself will take most of the loss since he owns most of the stock.

Vibecession: see this note posted yesterday.

• this was the original NYTimes "guest essay" where the word was introduced.

Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.

• crude oil in storage: jumps by a whopping 5.8 million bbls; still 2% below five-year average -- seems bullish for the economy
• refiners: 88.3% capacity
• propane glut
• jet fuel supplied up an amazing 3.5% compared to same period last year -- seems bullish for the economy

I've been building a position in SCCO for decades. Always bought additional shares; never sold. For the longest time, DRIP'd.

Housing -- Mortgages -- We've Been Here Before -- April 10, 2024

Locator: 46970HOUSING.

Link here, flashback, October 25, 2023.

Link here, flashback, October 23, 2023.

Clearing The Desktop -- April 10, 2024

Locator: 46969ARCHIVES.

Investing:

• March CPI --> media headline, "market plunges
• CVX: a $162-stock now off 17 cents; OMG

Tech:

• TSM: fastest monthly revenue growth since 2022;
• M3: cut in price at Best Buy;
• Apple supplier: sees strong 2024 on AI boom;

Streaming:

• White Collar new on Netflix, reruns from 2009 - 2014
• has been on Hulu "forever"'
• best series in that genre "ever"
  

Autos:

• Mazda CX-50, link here.

Economy:

• small business: startling for some.

Energy:

• STEO changes: link here.

Investing:

• options: link here.
• stock gains scaring options traders; earnings are critical.

Sports:

• best sports business cities: Dallas, #1, link here.
• Sophia saw Dallas Stars win last night

March CPI Numbers And Reaction -- Tough Noogies -- April 10, 2024

Locator: 46968INFLATION.

Bottom Line

Neel Kashkari wins.

Core CPI year over year: 3.8% vs 3.7% estimate -- oh give me a break. Not only statistically insignificant but not even statistically reproducible. 

• some algorithm will re-run the numbers this afternoon and will get a different number
• GDPNow
• April 4, 2024: 2.5%
• today, April 10, 2024, after CPI numbers: 2.4%
  

After 30 minutes of listening to CNBC analysts, this is my takeaway at 8:08 a.m, April 10, 2024.

• for me, this was wonderful -- the March CPI number. Why?
• puts Biden's re-election hopes on notice; Mar-a-Lago folks not all that upset
• had March CPI number come in lower than expected, market would have exploded
• suggests that the January number -- which was previously thought to be a one-off was, in fact, in line with those who thought inflation was still a problem
• had the March CPI number come in lower than expected, the Fed would have been under great pressure to cut rates; this gives the Fed breathing room
• the CNBC talking heads are apoplectic -- OMG, there might be no cut rates this year
• Mama Bears with their cash in MMFs aren't complaining
• best quote by former Fed member: "tough noogies."
• only concern: house prices and rent rates
• what should you and I watch most closely? There's only one thing that today, right now, Americans can start doing if they can't make ends meet due to inflation: quit dining out;
• I'm going to watch restaurants very, very closely for next six months
• LOL, just after posting that (restaurant note) Cramer voiced the very, very same thing -- wow.....if this is a real problem, restaurants should be in real trouble
  
• and maybe fewer tattoos 

This is reason for March CPI:

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

Breakfast:

• home: $1.25
• Waffle House: $12.50 -- before tax, tip

Original Post

March CPI: pending. Estimates:

• the consumer price index will be released Wednesday morning and is expected to register increases of 0.3% both for the all-items measure as well as core.
• on a year-over-year basis that would put respective inflation rates at 3.4% and 3.7%.
• markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect Fed policy.

March CPI, actual: 

• up 0.4%
• same as previous number
• Dow slumps over 300 points
• NASDAQ drops over 200 points
• WTI holds; up slightly
  

CNBC: comments after these numbers

• Steve Liesman:
• Fed rate cut -- more and more unlikely any time soon
• July rate cut probably off the table
• car prices, new and used came down
• airline tickets came down
• but car insurance came up
• other analysts:
• a tenth of a percent higher, does this mean anything?
• will make progress, but inflation is sticky
• why all this talk about "rush to cut"?
• in fact, this is all either known or expected; this is simply fodder for pundits
• everything going in direction as expected; maybe just not as fast as folks hoping
• jobs market strong; Fed still watching services / wage inflation
• exactly what folks expected; why all the feigned "surprise"?
• for the past year, we've never trended toward 2%; we trended toward 3% and that's where we're at
• no longer is 3% on a monthly basis a one-off -- it's now a fact of life, and could get worse
  
• again, remember the difference between "service" inflation and "products" inflation
  
• and now, blah, blah, blah
• inflation to 3% is not all that bad; one analyst has it exactly right;
• Steve Liesman seems to understand it best
  

Me? Huge buying opportunity at the open. Huge opportunity.

• no recommendation;
• see disclaimers;
• equities on sale
• some equities paying very nice dividends
• US economy surging: whatever happened to all that talk about stagflation / recession
• for me,
• Papa Bear: inflation too high and getting worse
• Mama Bear: I'm getting 5% by parking my money in MMFs; whoo-hoo!
• Baby Bear: Goldilocks 
• again, no recommendation; see disclaimers; this is not an investment site
  

CPI "Hotter" Than Expected; Several Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days -- April 10, 2024

Locator: 46967B.

Weekly EIA petroleum report: pending.

March CPI: pending. Estimates:

• the consumer price index will be released Wednesday morning and is expected to register increases of 0.3% both for the all-items measure as well as core.
• on a year-over-year basis that would put respective inflation rates at 3.4% and 3.7%.
• markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect Fed policy.

March CPI, actual: 

• up 0.4%
• same as previous number
• Dow slumps over 300 points
• NASDAQ drops over 200 points
  

Delta: link here. Up over 4% in pre-market trading. Over past two days will have gained over 5%.

Mortgage refinance demand: surges. 

Tech:

• TSM up almost 2% yesterday; looking to add another !% today
• Cramer, contrarian: says to avoid INTC

US equity markets before March CPI numbers came out:

Personal investing, will add to positions in:

• ORCL -- by rule, 
• MU -- by rule and great buying opportunity
  
• ENB, and CVX -- short-term plays
• no recommendations
• see disclaimers

Comic strips, funny pages: Sheila Jackson Lee, speech on space, eclipse. NY Post. 

The former top Democrat on the House Science Committee’s space subcommittee badly botched elementary lunar facts while speaking during the gathering at Booker T. Washington High School in Houston. ["Botched" -- the reporter is being "generous."]

One of many examples:“You’ve heard the word ‘full moon.’ Sometimes you need to take the opportunity just to come out and see a full moon is that complete rounded circle, which is made up mostly of gases,” Jackson Lee, 74, told teenage pupils who gathered on a sports field ahead of the rare celestial event.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $85.78. Remember when we were happy with $60-WTi and said that $60-WTI was the sweet spot? Apparently, $85-WTI is the new $60-WTI.

Thursday, April 11, 2024: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 220 for the year
40232, conf, Empire ND, Wigeon 29-1 1H,
40135, conf, CLR, Veigel 2-9H,
38010, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 31-29TFH,
36084, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H9, 

Wednesday, April 10, 2024: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter, 216 for the year
38011, conf, BR, CCU Plymouuth 34-29MBH,
37484, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 5-36H,
35076, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 6B,
35075, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 5B,
20860, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-1HR,

 RBN Energy: deepwater port license in hand, Enterprises' SPOT at front of export terminal race.

In the race to build the next deepwater crude oil export terminal along the U.S. Gulf Coast, there’s a lot of competition but one project now has a clear advantage: Enterprise Product Partners’ planned Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), which has made the most progress in moving through the regulatory morass and announced that it had received its deepwater port license on April 9. In today’s RBN blog, we provide an update on SPOT’s progress and look at some of its inherent advantages, including a potentially shorter time to market and extensive pipeline connectivity.