Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 25, 2024

Locator: 46899B.  

Wednesday, March 6, 2024: 92 for the month; 151 for the quarter, 151 for the year
39572, conf, Grayson Mill, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-8H,

Tuesday, March 5, 2024: 91 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
None.

Monday, March 4, 2024: 91 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
36282, conf, Enerplus, Warthog 149-93-31D-30H-TF,

Sunday, March 3, 2024: 90 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 149 for the year
40006, conf, Slawson, Thor 2-31-30H,
36280, conf, Enerplus, Meerkat 149-93-31D-30H,

Saturday, March 2, 2024: 88 for the month; 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year
None.

Friday, March 1, 2024: 88 for the month; 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year
40008, conf, Slawson, Thor 4-31-30H,
40007, conf, Slawson, Thor 3-31-30H,
39482, conf, Oasis, Ledahl 5402 42-33 3B,
38699, conf, CLR, Gibb 8-24HSL,
38639, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-5
36278, conf, Enerplus, Fossa 149-93-31D-30H-LL

Thursday, February 29, 2024: 82 for the month; 141 for the quarter, 141 for the year
40090, conf, CLR, Gibb 7-24H1,
40005, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 7H,
40004, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 6H,
40003, conf, Neptune, Wahlstrom 34-27 5H,
39490, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 6B,
39489, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 5B,
39488, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 4B,
39487, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 3B,
39486, conf, Oasis, Allen 5197 44-36 2B,
38700, conf, CLR, Gibb 6-24H,
38640, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-20017H-2,
37671, conf, Eneplus, Kudu 149-94-36D-35H,
36275, conf, Enerplus, Sturgeon 149-94-36D-25H-TF

Wednesday, February 28, 2024: 69 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 128 for the year
40027, conf, Dakota Gasification, Coteau 6,
40009, conf, Slawson, Thor 5-31-30H,
39940, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-4BH,
39939, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2004-3BH,
37488, conf, CLR, Gibb 5-24H,
36274, conf, Enerpllus, Salmon 149-94-36D-25H-TF,

Tuesday, February 27, 2024: 63 for the month; 122 for the quarter, 122 for the year
37487, conf, CLR, Gibb 4-24H1,

Monday, February 26, 2024: 62 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 121 for the year
39616, conf, Whiting, DE YK 12-33-2TFH,
37486, conf, CLR, Gibb 3-24H,

Sunday, February 25, 2024: 60 for the month; 119 for the quarter, 119 for the year
38641, conf, Hess, GO-Knudson-156-97-2017H-3,
37485, conf, CLR, Gibb 2-24H1,

Saturday, February 24, 2024: 58 for the month; 117 for the quarter, 117 for the yea
39617, conf, Whiting, DE YK 12-33-2H,
39340, conf, Enerplus, Cushion 148-93-04A-09H-LL,
37343, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot LS 23-22 8H,

The Letter -- Putting Things In Perspective -- Comments -- IN PROGRESS -- February 25, 2024

Locator: 46898BRK.  

BRK is tracked here.

Updates

Later, 12:47 p.m. CT: link here. 

Original Post 

The scorecard: 

Earnings.

The letter.

An earlier excuse -- doesn't pass the "common sense" test -- any more. $2 million may not move the needle, but $5 billion in TSM would have. By a huge margin.

Note: numbers are rounded, some numbers are assumed to be inaccurate but probably "within the ballpark"; dates are estimated; everything needs to be fact-checked but I just want to get an idea so as to help put things in perspective.

October 28, 2023: TSM was trading at $62. Warrren Buffett had just recently acquired 80 million shares (exact number needs to be fact-checked). Regardless, it was reported that as of November, 2022, BRK had a $5 billion stake in TSMC.

May 16, 2023: by this date, he had sold his entire stake in TSMC, trading at $90. At the link, he reportedly sold 86% of the TSM shares in February, then trading for $90.

February 23, 2024: latest, coincidentally almost exactly one year later, TSM closed at $130.

Back of the proverbial envelope:

• 80 million shares x $62 = $4.96 billion.
• 80 million shares x $130 = $10.4 billion.
• delta: $5.44 billion

See "scorecard" for 2023, reproduced above, operating earnings for the full year:

• insurance-underwriting: $5.43 billion (less than TSM above)
• insurance-investment: $9.567 billion (wow)
• railroad: $5.087 billion and almost a billion less than a year earlier
• utilities and energy: $2.331 billion and more than a half-billion less than a year earlier

***********************
But, But, But ..

But, "they" say, instead he invested in those five Japanese companies just as the Japanese stock market got back to its old highs!

Two things, one or the other or both:

• I doubt any / some / all of those Japanese companies did nearly as well as TSM over that one year time period; and,
• BRK could have done both with all that cash: kept TSM and used $5 billion of that $170 billion cash horde to invest in those Japanese companies.

I thought about that from personal experience. A bitter story. A fiduciary recommended I sell one of my great investments and move the cash into "his" company's portfolio. It would have been a disaster. I never saw him again, after that. But, I did even better. I kept my investment, kept investing in it and invested an identical amount into that new account. Incredible piece of luck.

******************************
BHE

Incredibly bad and the narrative was even wore.

This was the best news:

BHE’s extensive multi-state transmission project in the West was initiated in 2006 and remains some years from completion. Eventually, it will serve 10 states comprising 30% of the acreage in the continental United States. 

This project started in 2006 and it's now 2024 and still "remains some years from completion." 

"Some"?

And, as noted, that's the "best" BHE news.

The California forest fire risk is BRK's "sword of Damocles."

An Old EOG Hawkeye Well Approaching One Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- February 24, 2024

Locator: 46897B.  

From May 18, 2016. 

Of the eight additional horizontals in this sections: the four running north to south (three sections long):

• 22485, 1,926, EOG, Hawkeye 01-2501H, Clarks Creek, t1/13; cum 696K 10/19; only 21 days 3/16;; only 2 days 5/16; only 9 days; 6/16;
• 22486, see below,
• 22487, 67, EOG, Hawkeye 02-2501H, Clarks Creek, t12/13; cum 853K 10/19; only 22 days 3/16; 0 days 4/16; 1 day 5/16; 22 days 6/16;
• 22484, 2,946, EOG, Hawkeye 102-2501H, Clarks Creek, t1/13; cum 601K 10/19; only 21 days 3/16; 0 days 4/16; 2 days 5/16; 6/16;
  

Updating these wells:

• 22485, 1,926, EOG, Hawkeye 01-2501H, Clarks Creek, t1/13; cum 696K 10/19; only 21 days 3/16;; only 2 days 5/16; only 9 days; 6/16; cum 746K 12/23;
• 22486, see below, cum 859K 12/23;
  
• 22487, 67, EOG, Hawkeye 02-2501H, Clarks Creek, t12/13; cum 853K 10/19; only 22 days 3/16; 0 days 4/16; 1 day 5/16; 22 days 6/16; cum 966K 12/23;
  
• 22484, 2,946, EOG, Hawkeye 102-2501H, Clarks Creek, t1/13; cum 601K 10/19; only 21 days 3/16; 0 days 4/16; 2 days 5/16; 6/16; cum 653K 12/23;
  

Updating Some Old XTO - Denbury Wells From 2012 -- February 12, 2024

Locator: 46896B.  

From September 20, 2012.

September 21, 2012: Michael Filloon on the deal. Rigzone story here. Oil and Gas Journal story here. Stories from all over. Forbes: perhaps the best story. Serendipity or planned all along? A securities firm following DNR, suggests KOG is worth as much as $15 and Whiting $70 based on what XOM paid DNR. The Motley Fool's take on this deal: they stress that this deal keeps DNR focused on its strengths: CO2 EOR in older fields. Motley Fool says drilling the Bakken was not one of DNR's strengths. In fact, DNR reported some great wells this past quarter:

• 22115, 1,505, Denbury, Lundin 41-14SWH, Siverston, t712; cum 24K 7/12; 
• 22151, 1,538, Denbury, Tobacco Garden 41-18SH, Tobacco Garden, t6/12; cum 34K 7/12; 
• 21682, 1,454, Denbury, Lund 44-8SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 6K 6/12;
• 21950, 712, Denbury, Johnsrud 21-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 16K 6/12;
• 21786, 1,494, Denbury Onshore, Rink 12-4ESH, Garden, t4/12; cum 19K 5/12; 
• 21682, 968, Denbury, Lund 44-8NH, t7/12; cum 21K 7/12;
• 21706, 2,002, Denbury Onshore, Lundin 11-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 31K 5/12; 
• 21425, 1,105, Denbury Onshore, Johnson 43-27ENG, Murphy Creek, t5/12; cum 6K 5/12; 
• 21424, 939, Denbury, Johnson 43-27WNH, Murphy Creek, t5/12; cum 8K 5/12;

These are very good wells.

So, let's update these wells:

• 22115, 1,505, Denbury, Lundin 41-14SWH, Siverston, t712; cum 24K 7/12; cum 201K 12/23;
  
• 22151, 1,538, Denbury, Tobacco Garden 41-18SH, Tobacco Garden, t6/12; cum 34K 7/12; cum 314K 12/23;
  
• 21683, 1,454, Denbury, Lund 44-8SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 6K 6/12; cum 122K 12/23;
  
• 21950, 712, Denbury, Johnsrud 21-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 16K 6/12; cum 177K 12/23;
  
• 21786, 1,494, Denbury Onshore, Rink 12-4ESH, Garden, t4/12; cum 19K 5/12; cum 221K 12/23;
  
• 21682, 968, Denbury, Lund 44-8NH, t7/12; cum 21K 7/12; cum 413K 12/23;
  
• 21706, 2,002, Denbury Onshore, Lundin 11-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 31K 5/12;cum 369K 12/23;
  
• 21425, 1,105, Denbury Onshore, Johnson 43-27ENG, Murphy Creek, t5/12; cum 6K 5/12; cum 153K 12/23;
  
• 21424, 939, Denbury, Johnson 43-27WNH, Murphy Creek, t5/12; cum 8K 5/12; cum 173K 12/23;
  

Production data of cherry-picked wells: 

• 21682:

BAKKEN	1-2019	29	15480	16066	19366	26990	26151	695
BAKKEN	12-2018	5	1204	424	3115	1781	1328	430
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	26	8587	8903	24374	17287	0	16976
BAKKEN	7-2018	19	7042	6785	22387	10189	0	10105
BAKKEN	6-2018	2	492	408	3454	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	20	800	1300	627	3118	3008	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	1456	1241	1095	5081	4884	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	1301	1153	943	4330	3898	249
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	1253	1462	963	4331	3924	131
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	1216	1263	897	4415	3888	257

• 22151:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2023	31	4270	4152	3518	15162	4355	10510
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	4328	4492	3927	15361	3242	11832
BAKKEN	10-2023	19	1936	1603	2772	7932	1632	6121
BAKKEN	9-2023	1	0	0	0	42	0	39
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	7	131	306	0	471	425	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	811	945	598	2876	2356	223
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	860	823	602	3052	2501	262

Isn't This The Kind Of Deal Warren Buffett Would Like -- A Creditor On The Ropes; A Nice Interest Payment; And Incredible Collateral -- Saturday, February 24, 2024

Locator: 46895TRUMP.  

Link here.

Or what about Deutsche Bank?