TGIF — August 25, 2023

Locator: 45482B.

WTI: $80.

Sunday, August 27, 2023: 49 for the month; 251 for the quarter, 496 for the year
38996, conf, Hess, TI-Stenbak-LN-158-95-2526H-1, 
37934, conf, BR, Boxer 3A TFH,

Saturday, August 26, 2023: 47 for the month; 249 for the quarter, 494 for the year
37933, conf, BR, Parrish 4A MBH,
35473, conf, Oasis, MHA 8-29-30H-150-92,

Friday, August 25, 2023: 45 for the month; 247 for the quarter, 492 for the year
39447, conf, CLR, Edward 7-23H, 

RBN Energy: carbon capture faces several challenges to wider commercialization.

Given all the recent attention, you’d think the prospects for carbon-capture project development are fantastic. In the U.S., last year’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) featured significant increases in the 45Q tax credit for carbon sequestration, improving the economics for a wide range of carbon-capture projects. 

On a global level, it seems clear that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reach a net-zero world will continue for a long time to come. Nearly every plan to reach that target includes a significant reliance on carbon capture, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that 7,600 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) of carbon dioxide (CO2) — that’s 7.6 gigatons per year — will need to be captured and sequestered by 2050. We are a long way from those levels, given that most estimates put global carbon-capture capacity at a little more than 40 MMtpa today, or less than 1% of what the EIA thinks we’ll need in less than 27 years. 

In today’s RBN blog, we look at the main factors holding back the wider commercialization of carbon-capture initiatives in the U.S.

Two New Permits; Four Permits Renewed -- August 24, 2023

Locator: 45480B.  

Active rigs: 33. Crude oil in commercial storage at reecord low levels, and active rigs in North Dakota at less than 35. Amazing.

WTI: $78.92.

Two new permits, #40150 - #40151, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR, Armstrong Operating
• Fields: Little Knife (Dunn County); Elmore (Renville)
• Comments:
• CLR has a permit for a Marshall well, SWSW 24-145-97, 
• to be sited 450 FSL and 901 FWL; 
• Armstrong Operating has a permit for a Harkness well, NWNW 33-164-84, 
• to be sited 500 FNL and 818 FWL

Four permits renewed:

• Formentera Operations: three FLX permits, Portal field, Burke County; and, one Tafelmeyer permit, Customs oil field, Burke County;

Meaningless Charts -- For The Umpteenth Time -- August 24, 2023

Locator: 45479OIL.  

It will be nice when Bloomberg starts reading the blog (again). 

A reader sent me Bloomberg's chart of the day -- thank you very much. 

Anyone that understands "US shale" and the "oil sector" knows that this graphic is absolutely meaningless. 

It's an important chart, I suppose, as a point of information ... but that raises a philosophical question -- can a meaningless chart be important? Yes, in the context of emotional traders, seeing the data in a meaningless chart can be important. For me, this speaks volumes, that with US crude oil in storage at record lows, the price of WTI continues to drop.

The "choke point" is not "oil in man-made storage." The choke point -- well, there are two choke points when it comes to fossil fuel we can use for transportation:

• refining; and,
• distribution of the final product.

Even adding the above chart to the three below, adds nothing to the story. It's a worthless chart -- the one above. If one doesn't agree, then note that WTI is down again today despite record low crude oil inventories.

From before, for the umpteenth time:

Locator: 45474HURRICANESEASON. 

Two links:

• next hurricane could shut in 40% of GOM produuction, Alex Kimani. Link here.
• low US oil reserves to clash with "above normal" hurricane season; link here.
  
• note: completely wrong, by the way -- hurricanes have minimal effect on crude oil reserves; WTI is measured at Cushing, OK; hurricanes hitting TX/LA have major effect on refining -- it's gasoline stores and production at risk; oil supplies? We'll do just fine.
• Hurricane Harvey: August, 2017; Texas; category 4; devastating; gasoline supplies greatly impacted, much simply because 18-wheelers couldn't get to and from the coast
• there are no gasoline pipelines that run from the coast direct to our neighborhood filling stations

*********************************
The Data

From yesterday, re-posting.

Locator: 45471B.

Gasoline prices are at "recent"highs.

The Biden administration is "monitoring" this. What concerns them most?

Gasoline demand and status, link here, three charts:

Refiners, weekly EIA petroleum report:

• refiners are operating at 94.5% of their capacity; pedal to the metal

******************************
Commentary

The Biden administration says they are monitoring the three graphics above. What are they monitoring? What are they worried about?

I'm thinking back to August 17, 2017, to September 3, 2017.

This Is What Barron's Had To Say About Nvidia Over The Past Few Weeks -- August 24, 2023

Locator: 45478NVDA.  

All published before Nvidia's 2Q23 earnings release. All before the meteoric rise in NVDA.

WTI: Breaks Below $78 Again -- August 24, 2023

Locator: 45477TECH.  

Everything indicates that the Fed will signal "higher for longer." 

*************************
The Book Club

Primo Levi: The Double Bond, A Biography, Carole Angier, c. 2002.

Notes.