The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Friday, June 23, 2023

Ford -- A Stand-Alone Post -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45023EVS.

Ramping up production of EVs-- which will never have much of a profit margin -- compared to the decked-out Ford ICE F-150 Raptor -- is very, very, very expensive. Ford admits it and it's a recurrent theme on the blog.

I think Ford is in more trouble -- at least short term -- than folks think. Two things:

Yesterday, this is a loan, not a grant or a gift, but a loan:

Largest loan in the history of the government's DOE Loan Program Office. Think about that. DOE was established to monitor / assist / promote the US nuclear program. Nukes -- one word -- expensive. There must have been a lot of "nuke" loans over the years -- now a car manufacturer saw a need to set that record. Think about that.

link here.

And then today: Ford announces another round of layoffs -- this time, salaried workers. Ford won't simply bee cutting ICE assets, but also... EV assets. Now that Ford has give up on its own charging network and partnered with the richest man in the world to do it right, Ford no longer needs that division.

From the linked article:

Motor is preparing to initiate another round of layoffs in the coming weeks, the latest in a broader effort by the automaker to streamline operations and reduce costs.

The layoffs, expected to mostly include U.S. salaried workers, would be one of several that Ford has initiated in less than a year and could be announced as early as next week.

The number of people Ford plans to lay off in this latest round couldn’t be learned. The cuts are expected to affect employees on Ford’s gas-engine side of the business, as well as its electric-vehicle and software division.

I think Ford is in more trouble than analysts are willing to say out loud.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

The Market -- Coors Light Embraces Pride Parade -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45023INV.

VIX: at lowest levels since January, 2020.

Wall Street's so-called "fear index" — the CBOE Volatility Index — fell to 12.73 Thursday, the lowest reading since January 2020.

As stocks snap a three-day losing streak and return to climbing the proverbial wall of worry, the VIX is signaling the most complacency in stocks since just prior to the pandemic.

It may not signal the all-clear, the low VIX reading does underscore the powerful rally U.S. large cap equities have mounted this year. While the rally was largely concentrated in growth tech names and mega cap stocks through May, cyclical sectors have joined the party since the last jobs report dropped in early June.

The VIX is perhaps most famous for its skyward spikes during periods of market turmoil. But sustained, lower readings are a hallmark of bull markets.

Wind: Siemens Energy (think wind) shares plunge 30% as wind turbine worries deepen. Those long heavy blades that "everyone" loved:

Disney: not hitting on all cylinders. Long-serving CFO just quit; now Chief of DEI departed to pursue other interests. I hear BUD is looking for a new DEI marketing director for the midwest, south, and southwest US, as well as the rodeo circuit, in general.

Freight train, freight train, moving so fast: opening today -- I plan to go to the 10:00 p.m. show. Link here. I suspect my movie review will run something like this:

typical Wes Anderson movie
incredible cinematography
a "Hotel" sequel
weak story line -- but does anyone go to a Wes Anderson movie for the story line? LOL.
starring ensemble will exceed all expectations
sound track -- awesome
my wife will hate it -- even without seeing it -- she will never watch it

All those headlines, the US Navy knew .... wrong.

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BUD

Updates

June 25, 2023: a gazillion articles on "lessons the ad world learned" since June 6, 2023. For lessons learned, look at Coke, McDonald's, Apple.

Quick: on the chart below, point to the specific date when things went sideways.

Reposting:

Trending on my twitter feed tonight: link here. This speaks volumes. From The Bismarck Tribune. I knew the "number" would be high but I did not expect 80%! Quick: name the outlier: Walmart, Target, Bud.

Original Post

All that "pride" stuff: I have a comment for this but don't want to troll -- so will simply post the headline:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

No More Wells Coming Off Confidential List Until Next Week -- June 23, 2023

Locator: 45022B.

What we will be talking about in August: heat and drought in England.

EIA dashboards posted earlier.

Biggest story today: June 23 -- WTI is now, officially, a component of dated Brent.

Saudi, link here. The price of oil has plummeted ever since Saudi announced unilateral cuts in production some weeks ago to stop free-fall in price of oil. That free-fall seems to have accelerated.

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Back to the Bakken

Dashboards, posted.

WTI: $68.31.

Monday, June 26, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
None.

Sunday, June 25, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
None.

Saturday, June 24, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
None.

Friday, June 23, 2023: 37 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 400 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: sustainable aviation fuel can only fly with more incentives, part 2.

It seems logical that shifting over time to aviation fuel with a lower carbon footprint would represent the most practical way for the global airline industry to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But for that shift to happen, there needs to be an economic rationale for producing sustainable aviation fuel and, despite a seemingly generous production credit for SAF in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), that rationale is a least a little shaky when compared to renewable diesel (RD) credits available today. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude our two-part series on SAF with an examination of RD and SAF economics (which are remarkably similar), the degree to which existing SAF incentives may fall short of RD, and what it all means for SAF producers and production.

Jet fuel is the planet’s third-most consumed transportation fuel (after diesel and gasoline), and its considerable volume (7 MMb/d) is a meaningful target for carbon emissions reduction. Many airlines have set targets of “net-zero-by-2050” — which may be hard to fathom given the nature of an industry reliant on transportation fuels. If they are to have any degree of success in approaching their goals, lowering Scope 2 emissions through the increased use of SAF will be critical, particularly given the recent skepticism being heaped on the airlines’ other decarbonization strategy — carbon offsets.

Like RD, SAF is the chemical twin of its petroleum-based alternative and therefore can serve as a “drop-in” replacement for it. We also explained the processes most often used to produce RD — and from it, SAF. The most mature technology for producing RD from plant oils or other recycled fats uses hydrogen to remove oxygen (primarily hydrodeoxygenation, or HDO) to produce hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA). This same HEFA process can be used to produce SAF (which contains the same molecules as petroleum-sourced jet fuel) by adding a hydrocracking processing step. SAF molecules are shorter chains of hydrocarbons; therefore, the diesel-sized molecules in RD must be broken (or “cracked”).