The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Another MRO Bailey Well WIth Second Jump In Production -- February 24, 2023

The well:

• 18384, 394, MRO, Glenn Eckelberg 24-8H, Bailey, t5/10; cum 575K 12/22; cum 637K 9/23;
  

From FracFocus: 

• water: 1.6 million gallons
• water by mass: 86.4%
• proppant by mass: 14.9%

From file report:

• date stimulated: 5/23/2010
• stimulation stages: 16
• volume: 34,358 bbls
• lbs proppant: 2,282,940

• date stimulated: 8/3/14
• stimulation stages: 30
• volume: 37,250 bbls
• lbs proppant: 485,540 (no typo)
  

Recent production: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	24	8948	9009	13384	7355	6883	308
BAKKEN	11-2022	27	14104	14093	21899	10992	10202	507
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	17872	17857	35351	15571	14102	1233
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	15750	15796	45331	16188	15933	7
BAKKEN	8-2022	27	16451	16527	61968	11173	10846	126
BAKKEN	7-2022	7	5100	4802	26119	3835	3252	337
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	1793	2006	1090	1147	0	821
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1848	1825	1178	1166	0	842

Jump in production in 2014:

BAKKEN	11-2014	30	13026	13128	6472	7391	293	5525
BAKKEN	10-2014	27	11742	11706	6005	6611	1546	3654
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	12466	12511	5669	7290	4242	1535
BAKKEN	8-2014	25	15129	14799	3964	9165	4708	2691
BAKKEN	7-2014	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	27	1029	1144	846	715	43	421
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	1304	1376	837	927	428	173
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	1304	1400	837	949	493	137

Initial production:

BAKKEN	10-2010	18	756	920	618	183	89	0
BAKKEN	9-2010	29	3200	3074	2362	1033	865	0
BAKKEN	8-2010	31	3928	3947	2890	1466	1288	0
BAKKEN	7-2010	29	4245	4418	2158	1101	938	0
BAKKEN	6-2010	30	6283	6225	3378	2784	2606	0
BAKKEN	5-2010	13	3690	3209	2208	1749	1683	0

The map:

Over A Dozen Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Next Few Days -- February 24, 2023

Entertainment: Marlowe getting bad reviews. I had planned on seeing this movie, but with these reviews, nope.

Housing: month-over-month, expectations, seasonally adjusted, 620,000 forecast; came in at 670,000.

Natural gas:

• the US supplied one-half of the natural gas that Europe imported last year
• and that was with Freeport off line

The Fed rate: some say a 6% Fed rate is in the cards. That's not hard to predict.

• fact: the Fed rate is currently in the 4.25 to 4.75% range
• fact: the majority of analysts expect three rate hikes in calendar year 2023
• arithmetic: 0.25 + 025 + 0.25 = 0.75
• arithmetic: 0.75 + 4.75 = 5.5.
• if only one of those three rate hikes is 50 basis points we are at 6.0% for all intents and purposes
• and even without a 50-bp rate hike, 5.5% and 6% are essentially the same except in the minds of CPAs and bankers
• the majority of folks carrying credit card debt are paying 25% interest -- on an annual basis -- on that debt
  

My prediction: talking heads on CNBC will take about the Fed rate only slightly more often than First Take / Get Up talking heads talk about Dak Prescott. Or that guy in yellow or green who went off the grid for the past month or so. I'm blocking on his name.

It gets tedious.

Investing: today --

• I buy during the first and third week of each month, regardless of what the market is doing;
• I have a 40-30-20-5-5 "new-money" allotment strategy
• in February, I took all new money and invested in one sector to better balance my portfolio
• in March, I will get back to the 40-30-20-5-5
• speaking of which, memo to self, for the blog later: "5" "healthcare" "Bezos, Soros, Cook, Ray Dalio, and Mark Cuban -- link here.
  
• today, I will take advantage of the market and invest the first allotment for March, and delay the March investment to the second week in March
• Dow is down almost 400 points at the open; now, at 8:46 a.m. the Dow is down 450 points.

EVs: if JPow stays the course, could this be the death knell for EVs? Today:

• LCID: down 5.4%
• RIVN: down 5.5%
• ARVL: down 3.5% (at 29 cents)
• RIDE: down 5.1% (at $1.05)
• GOEV: down 3.1% (at 76 cents)
• NKLA: down 1%
  
• FSR: down 4.8%
• F: down 2.4% (below $12)
• TSLA: down 4% (below $194)

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Well of interest: #18384. Will post this later. 

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $75.78.

Natural gas: $2.336.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Sunday, February 26, 2023: 79 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
39087, conf, CLR, Colette 4-18H,
39018, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 11H ,
38693, conf, Enerplus, Lob 149-92-31D-30H-LL,
38428, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24HU,
38405, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 3H,
38343, conf, Enerplus, Ace 149-92-31D-30H,
36048, conf, Oasis, Achilles 5301 12-13 3BX,

Saturday, February 25, 2023: 72 for the month; 143 for the quarter, 143 for the year
39017, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 10H,
38742, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-10H,
38406, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 4TFH,
8029 (no typo), conf, Empire North Dakota, Romsos 1-21,

Friday, February 24, 2023: 68 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 139 for the year
39016, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 8H,
36484, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-9H3A,

RBN Energy: as focus on methane intensifies, companies face key challenges, questions.

Over the past five years, the North American oil and gas industry has undertaken a major strategic shift, embracing the global push to decarbonize by, among other things, emphasizing the greener emissions profile of natural gas vs. coal and taking aggressive steps to reduce the volumes of methane, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases emitted during the production, processing and transportation of just about every kind of hydrocarbon. It’s a real challenge, though. Operators face a seemingly endless and overwhelming set of choices about how best to approach emissions reductions, which technologies to use, which programs to join, and how to interpret new emissions-measurement data, to name a few. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a look at how operators can achieve key environmental goals while protecting — even improving — their bottom line and meeting a host of important goals, from reducing the cost of capital and managing investor pressure to improving realized prices and market access.

The Price Of Eggs, Inflation, And Pet Peeves -- February 24, 2023

I have a gazillion pet peeves.

This is just one of them.

Every time I see this graph on inflation -- this one was from February, 2022 -- that leads off with eggs as an example of inflation. 

By the way, lettuce is a similar example but for different reasons. I assume something's going on with "butter+margarine," also. If there is nothing that can explain "butter+margarine" then the high price of tubs is probably due to "guilt by association" (price gouging).

Finally, a year into this and we get a great front-page story in The WSJ explaining what's really going on with eggs. It has almost nothing to do with excess government spending, bailouts, the cost of funding Ukraine, or wage pressure. Certainly not the latter. 

It's all about avian flu. Unfortunately it's being The WSJ  paywall. 

Some screenshots:

From the article:

Since February of last year, the avian flu has led to the death of around 58 million farm-raised birds in the U.S., the deadliest outbreak on record. It sent the price of turkey to record highs for Thanksgiving. Weeks later, egg prices hit their own high.

Avian flu outbreaks have long been a risk in the chicken, turkey and egg businesses. In the past, though, the outbreaks subsided after a few months, easing price spikes. Some government officials, scientists and poultry industry executives now say the avian flu is likely to stick around, potentially keeping egg and turkey prices elevated for the foreseeable future.

The loss of poultry flocks to bird flu coincided with a broad rise in the cost of labor, energy and livestock feed, squeezing consumers with higher grocery store prices.

By the way, as we recall, turkey prices weren't all that high, and in fact, one could easily find turkeys at the same price as the previous year, and right after Thanksgiving stores were giving turkey away, But I digress.

Interestingly, there is one chart at The WSJ article that was most enlightening. That chart was literally at the bottom of the article. The chart should have been at the top of the article but it would have "weakened" the tone of the breathlessness of the writer. 

If I remember, I will post that chart later.

Intel: Follow-Up -- February 24, 2023

INTC: cut its dividend. Folks were hoping that Biden's infusion of cash would save Intel's dividend. Previously discussed. 

 Previously posted:

• from February 7, 2023:

INTC: prepare for a dividend cut. If not, Intel simply redistributing cash from a government bailout.

• from January 27, 2023: 

Wrong horse:

• clearly, the Biden administration bet on the wrong horse;
• creating a "zombie" company
• a "bailout" by any other name
• in the big scheme of things, this is just fine; Biden administration did the right thing for the country.

Big question(s):

• is the dividend at risk?
• is the new Ohio facility at risk?

Also, from January 27, 2023:

See also: TSM.

Where it all started: how many transistors on the new Apple M1 chip? The original post was dated November 22, 2020.

Greetings From Austin -- February 24, 2023

********************************
From Today

I believe I have visited every state in the union, all 57 of them and the District of Columbia and have lived in or spent significant time in no less than fourteen of those states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Montana, Oregon, California, Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Alaska. 

In addition I've lived in and/or spent significant time overseas: Germany, England, Scotland, Morocco, the Gambia, Turkey, Japan, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium.

Not counting North Dakota where I grew up, or perhaps Montana, where our parents had a vacation home, I've felt most at home in north Texas. I thought south Texas was great -- San Antonio. But after thirteen years in San Antonio, and now ten years in the DFW area, I can say that I prefer this area the most. It's quite incredible. 

So, it was quite a treat to see the above article in The New Yorker this week.

*********************
From Yesterday

I've mentioned many times my love / hate relationship with The New Yorker. A year or so ago, I started a new subscription after a lapse of several years. The "introductory" rate was about zero dollars for six months. It was ridiculous not to take out a new subscription. 

Then, some months ago, I was offered to renew the subscription at pretty much the going rate, which is very, very expensive by my standards, but not as expensive as organic eggs. The subscription is $169, if I recall correctly, for one year, an issue every two weeks.

I consider myself lucky if there is more than one article / one essay in any given issue that I might read, much less enjoy. Last week there were none. But when there is an article that I enjoy, it pays for the subscription.

This week, there was such an article. The articles in The New Yorker are incredibly long, generally ten to twelve pages. This article, on Austin, Texas, was sixteen pages. I have six more pages to read. 

It's an incredible article written by a writer who has written and lived around the world, and currently writes for Texas Monthly. 

Three takeaways.

I did not know Austin, Texas is now the eleventh largest city in America (needs to be fact-checked).

I had forgotten that Apple, Inc., has a campus in Austin.

There's a reason Palantir, headquartered in Austin, turned a profit for the first time in its history this past quarter.