The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)

Thursday, February 2, 2023

COP: Dividend Update -- For The Archives -- February 2, 2023

OPEC Cuts Production In January, 2023 -- February 2, 2023

Saudi: cuts production.

Active rigs: 47.

The Far Side: link here.

WTI: $76.49.

Natural gas: $2.558.

Friday, February 3, 2023:
39073, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 2-35-26-159N-100W-MBH,
38582, conf, Whiting, Connor TTT 11-26-1H,

Thursday, February 2, 2023:
39074, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Szarka 4-36-25-159N-100W-MBH,
39071, conf, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Fylling 3036H,
39034, conf, CLR, Rhonda 11-28H,
38409, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5TFHU,
38164, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-11,

RBN Energy: portfolio players take on critical roles in rapidly commoditizing global LNG market.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February upended long-standing expectations about natural gas supplies to Europe and resulted in elevated global gas prices as countries bid for LNG to fill the void.

But U.S. suppliers can only produce so much LNG, and how much of it ends up in Europe versus Asia or other gas-consuming regions in 2023 and beyond will depend largely on market forces — in other words, who needs the LNG more and is willing to pay up for it.

At the center of these market-based decisions about LNG cargo destinations are large portfolio players like Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Naturgy and short-side portfolio players like Japan’s JERA. In today’s RBN blog we look at these two types of players, the roles they play, and their contributions to energy security.

Thursday Morning News, Part 3 — February 2, 2023

Auto sales: pending — https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/ford-january-2023-sales-f-series-bronco.html. Shares surging in early trading. Earnings after market close.

DETROIT – Ford Motor’s new U.S. vehicle sales started 2023 on stronger footing than a year earlier, but were down 18.4% from December.
January is historically one of the weakest months of the year, while December is one of the strongest. Still, the month-over-month decline is notable, as the worst for the automaker since a 28% drop between May and June of last year. Between December 2021 and January 2022, sales declined 17.4%.

EVs: expect more price cuts ahead -- Morgan Stanley.

Buybacks (shares/equity): huge this year.

Subway: could go public; valued at $10 billion (?). Sales surged 9.2%. The struggling consumer. Say what?

EPD: predicts big year for the Permian. Link: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Pipeline-Operator-Predicts-A-Big-Year-For-The-Permian-Basin.html.

Wow: seriously?

Link: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1621155000520159233. RMB = Chinese yuan. New reserve currency? By the way, as a percentage y/y within the currency EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, and HKD all dropped. On top of that, not only did US increase y/y, it did by a healthy margin. Up over 8%, y/y.

US Navy stands down: link here — https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1621153827801174019.

Twitter: much improved.

Thursday Morning News, Part 2 — February 2, 2023

‘Disinflation”; word of the day — CNBC. Their words, not mine.

Why the rally? Link here.

Efficiency / productivity: second word of the day.

Soft landing: lots of talk. Their talk, not mine. JPow getting a lot of plaudits.

Deglobalization: no stopping it now. Link here.

The globalized world has seemingly been great for everyone...security, access to foreign markets, the list goes on...so why would the US choose to continue down the path of deglobalization?

The US has been heading down this path for years, and they're well past the point of no return. There are a few reasons we ended up here: the US never benefitted from this arrangement like everyone else, American politics are all about casting a wide net and making the most people happy (so when the globalization topic is hurting your party, you give it the cold shoulder), and most importantly, demographics.

Perhaps the only thing that could flip the script and make the US rethink this would be a security threat that impacts Americans more than anyone else.

21st century: belongs to America. Energy. Industrialization. EVs.

Dow turns green: pre-market. AAPL surges; announces after market close.

TTE, Iraq: TTE pulls staff from Iraq — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/totalenergies-pulls-staff-iraq-wrangling-over-projects-sources-say-2023-02-02/.

Ferrari surge: https://twitter.com/barronsonline/status/1621128570339745796. Profits surge 13%. The struggling consumer. Reminder: we’re in a recession.

Shell: profit doubles to $40 billion and announces $4 billion buyback.

AMD: https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stock-market-hangs-on-the-feds-decision-chip-stock-jumps/.

Oil: pre-market, down a bit.