Remember Russia's threat to embargo its oil if the EU set a $60 cap on its oil.
That was Plan A.
Price cap passed.
Plan B.
Friday, December 16, 2022
The Southern Surge -- LA Times -- December 16, 2022
Updates
Later, 1:25 p.m. CT: a reader responds. I replied to the reader and posted that reply.
Original Post
Wow, wow, wow, from the Los Angeles Times today:
The story is here, perhaps behind a paywall:
I agree 1000%. I've said that on the blog before. Said it a long time ago. I said it well before this, but the tipping point for me was when "every" Texas county along the Mexican border, including ground zero, El Paso, voted for "open borders" Beto.
Talking GDP -- December 16, 2022
Remember all that talk about China's GDP surpassing that of the US? I don't know where that stands but over in "free" Asia, link here:
This was predicted to occur at some time in the future but this is a lot sooner than expected:
Taiwan GDP: will surpass the GDP of both Japan and South Korea, next year, 2023
- forecast:
- ahead of Japan in 2028;
- ahead of South Korea in2027
With regard to that first question: where the US and China stand with regard to GDP. BiMAGA -- cutting China off at the knees -- semiconductors; energy; Covid -- maybe China's GDP won't surpass that of the US. Let's look. The forecast last year: China's GDP would pass that of the US next year, 2023.
Well, well, well, same source, different story:
Most interesting lead: over the long term, labor shortages stemming from the country's dwindling population will act as a drag on its economic growth.
By the way, I can't remember if I posted this, but a few days ago, Peter Zeihan suggested that the real reason for Presidnet Xi relaxing Covid restricctions was for exactly that reason: the Chinese population is falling faster than expected.
ESPO Update -- December 16, 2022
ESPO: all of a sudden it's in the news. LOL. Again, I can't thank enough the reader who pointed me in this direction. All things ESPO at this post.
Again, the Kamala Harris explanation:
- Russia has two main brands of oil: ESPO and Urals
- ESPO: goes to Asia -- China, Japan, Korea
- Urals: goes to Europe (not so much any more)
- $60-cap applies to sea-going tankers
- pronouns for Russian oil: it / they
Today:
- Russia's Urals averaged $57 / bbl, last month (Nov 15 - Dec 14, 2022)
- Russia's ESPO: oil tanker owners show signs of shunning Russia's Asian crude
- shipbrokers say it's proving hard to find tankers for ESPO oil
- tanker tracking points to decline in exports from Kozmino
- Kozmino? Map here.
Beleaguered Appalachian Gas Pipelines Would Reduce Emissions -- December 16, 2022
Avatar: opening tonight. Trending toward $200 million in advance tickets. We're going to the 6:00 p.m. show tonight. Due to length of movie, three hours, the movie begins exactly at 6:00 p.m. -- no previews, no commercials. Link here.
ESPO: update.
Coal: big story today -- being posted everywhere. Global coal consumption hit an all-time record. Apparently the IEA was the only one surprised by this. Looks like reality trumps the myth of global warming.
Unmitigated disaster: Merkel's energy plan. Trump saw this coming.
Weather: speaking of which. Are folks noticing how fast it got so cold both in the US and in Europe?
Strep: I was really happy with my post last night regarding strep. I don't know how it could have been presented any more simply.
************************
Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 42.
WTI: $74.39. Down almost $2 overnight. Is anybody getting the feeling that the "caps" are working too well -- consuming nations have told OPEC they won't pay more than $60 -- we've talked about this before.
Natural gas: $6.439
Sunday, December 18, 2022: 49 for the month, 158 for the quarter, 702 for the year.
39022, conf, Kraken, King 8-5-32 4H,
39003, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 7-33-4TFH,
38936, conf, CLR, Roxy 8-31H,
37895, conf, Enerplus, Gallium 147-93-17A-20H,
37894, conf, Enerplus, Osmium 147-93-17B-20H,
Saturday, December 17, 2022: 44 for the month, 153 for the quarter, 697 for the year.
39023, conf, Kraken, King 8-5-32 3H,
39002, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 6-33-4TFH,
38937, conf, CLR, Roxy 7-31H1,
38862, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 2-20H,
38932, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 3-33-4H,
36900, conf, Bowline/Nine Point, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-6H,
36178, conf, BR, Geeorge 2D TFH,
RBN Energy: beleaguered Appalachian gas pipelines would reduce emissions (which is important for some folks; not for me).
Natural gas pipeline project permitting sits at the nexus of the debate about the best path toward decarbonization. Industry proponents rightly point out that pipelines can reduce aggregate emissions by displacing much higher burner-tip emissions from coal in power generation. Environmental opposition, though, highlights that a high rate of methane emissions along the gas value chain could undermine those potential improvements. In today’s RBN blog, we consider the net decarbonization impact of new gas pipelines, including the importance of quantifying upstream methane emissions, by looking at a couple of canceled or long-delayed pipeline projects that could make a big difference.
Over the last six years, developers have canceled five major projects proposed to take Appalachian gas to premium markets on the East Coast: Williams’s Constitution Pipeline, UGI Energy Services’ PennEast Pipeline, Dominion Energy’s Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP), Enbridge’s Access Northeast expansion of Algonquin Gas Transmission, and Kinder Morgan’s Northeast Energy Direct expansion of Tennessee Gas Pipeline. All but Northeast Energy Direct were canceled after receiving Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) certificates, which even six years ago nearly guaranteed that a proposed gas pipeline project would be completed. Equitrans continues to pursue key federal permits for its Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) after court rulings early this year sided with environmental groups and revoked its permits for the umpteenth time. That project is now eight years into its development, with an unclear timeline for completion.
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